Towards Peace in Chechnya

Towards Peace in Chechnya

On October 23, 2002, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted a presentation "Towards Peace in Chechnya" by Ivan Rybkin, former Speaker of the Russian State Duma and former Secretary of the Russian Security Council. Andrew Kuchins of the Carnegie Endowment moderated the discussion. This meeting at the Endowment took place on the same day that the theater in Moscow was taken hostage by Chechens, but we were unaware of this during the meeting itself. We would like to take this opportunity to express our deepest condolences to the families who suffered loss from this tragic event.

In his introduction to the meeting, Kuchins briefly sketched the tremendous scale of human losses incurred by the war in Chechnya. According to the official Russian statistics, just in the second Chechen war that began three years ago, more than four thousand Russian military personnel died. In the same period, more than ten thousand Chechen fighters perished. Unofficial estimates are considerably higher. While the impact on the civilian population is harder to estimate, the numbers would be in the tens of thousand since 1999. Repercussions of the war, however, concern not only Chechnya. A forthcoming publication by Dmitrii Trenin and Alexei Malashenko of the Carnegie Moscow Center "Vremia Iuga: Rossia v Chechne i Chechnya v Rossii" (Time of the South: Russia in Chechnya and Chechnya in Russia) examines the impact of the conflict on Russian society.

Decades-long Struggle for Independence

Introduced as the most prominent Russian political figure advocating a change in Russian policy toward Chechnya, Ivan Rybkin began his presentation by noting that he lived for over thirty years in Northern Caucasus. He reflected on his initial encounter as an adolescent with consequences of Stalin's massive deportations that affected many ethnic groups. Chechen people were among these nationalities that became uprooted, exiled, and scattered across territories of northern Kazakhstan and Siberia by Moscow in 1944. With the disintegration of the Soviet Union, a movement among Chechens arose to assert their autonomy and national selfhood. However, the Chechen struggle for self-determination takes its roots much earlier than the 1990s. According to Rybkin, in the 19th century three million Chechens and other mountain people died fighting for their independence from Russia during the fifty-seven years of the First Caucasian War. The military regime imposed by Imperial Russia on the Chechens lasted until 1917. Later, in the period between 1922 and 1944, continued Chechen resistance to the Soviet authorities forced Moscow to periodically send security forces into the region.

Nevertheless, the Russian government failed to learn from this long and violent history of resistance, and in the early 1990s war in Chechnya broke out. Not until August 1996, was General Lebed successful in breaking the spell of fighting by convincing both sides to sign the Khasavyurt cease-fire agreement. To continue Lebed's initiative, a comprehensive peace agreement was drafted that would rehabilitate the war-ravished Chechnya and provide it with a special status within the borders of the Russian Federation. Signed by Presidents Yeltsin and Maskhadov in May 12, 1997, the accord brought a temporary period of stability during which elections were held. However, military and political tensions continued to persist in both Chechen and Russian society, and the peace agreement was soon abandoned. The team of peacemakers headed by Mr. Rybkin was disbanded, and the fighting resumed in 1999 after a Shamil Basaev-led incursion into Dagestan.

Heavy Burden of the War both for Chechen and Russian Society

Mr. Rybkin noted that at present, after three years of continuous fighting, Chechnya has become virtually like a second Stalingrad battleground. According to the Union of Soldiers' Mothers Committee, fourteen and a half thousand Russian soldiers have died in the present Chechen war. Eighty thousand civilians, including rebels, have been killed in Chechnya since 1999. Thirty five thousand are reported to be missing as the result of the infamous "zachistki" conducted by the Russian federal troops in the region. Moreover, the disease of the Chechen problem began metastasizing throughout all of Russian society. Over a million Russians have been scarred due to their participation in the Chechen war. According to the statistics provided by the Russian Ministry of Interior, the majority of the gravest crimes today are committed by Chechen war veterans. The toll of the war is overwhelming and debilitating. But the confrontation perseveres and continues to drain more human lives: Chechen fighters are recruited daily. Many of them are no older than 12-13 years old. The fighting has to stop before it is too late.

War in Chechnya Part of the Anti-Terrorism Campaign?

In this respect, Mr. Rybkin criticized the current Russian administration for treating the Chechen problem in the framework of the U.S.-led war on terrorism. Under the guise of the anti-terrorist campaign, the Russian government is trying to tackle an issue that is extremely complicated and related to terrorism only indirectly. Participation in the American-led coalition against terror provided Russia with justification for carrying on its misguided and failed policy in Chechnya. However, the sole cause for the continuing carnage is the fear of admitting a political fiasco.

No Military Solution for the Chechen War

Mr. Rybkin remained realistic and acquiesced that the path to peace in Chechnya would not be an easy undertaking. Nevertheless, he insisted on pursuing it using non-violent means, through negotiations. Alluding to the remark that he made earlier regarding the conflict Mr. Rybkin noted again that the Chechen issue cannot be solved through a military approach.

In his concluding remark, Mr. Rybkin reiterated the need for solving the Chechen problem by separating it from the issue of terrorism. The roots of the Chechen grievances going several centuries back, the Chechen problem is different by its nature from the worldwide war on terrorism, and hence, has to be treated accordingly. The West, including the United States, should therefore reconsider their position towards Russian-Chechen relations.

The Q&A session that followed Mr. Rybkin's presentation highlighted several important issues. The first question addressed President Putin's attitude towards the Chechen problem. The speaker noted that the large number of security service representatives in Putin's administration have likely encouraged the President to persist in an overt use of force in the Chechen campaign. (According to the statistics offered by the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, security service representatives made up 3.6% of the Gorbachev administration, 7-8% of the Yeltsin administration, and 26% of the Putin administration). However, he also acknowledged that Putin has taken a few important steps towards settling the Chechen problem such as appointing the young and energetic Chechen Soltygov to be in charge of human rights. Nevertheless, Mr. Rybkin pointed out that these measures are far too unorganized and chaotic.

Having recently met with Mr. Akhmed Zakaev, a personal representative of President Maskhadov, Mr. Rybkin shared his insights on the status of the Chechens' demands regarding their territory. The Chechens seem to agree with the idea of a special status within the Russian Federation, which could serve as the basis for beginning peace negotiations. Answering the question on what the US policy should towards Russia, Mr. Rybkin replied that the international community must not maintain their silence regarding the Chechen issue. Acquiescence on Iraq in exchange for acquiescence on Chechnya would be a bad deal for both Russia and the United States, and would cause greater problems in the long run.

Summary prepared by Zhanara Nauruzbayeva, Junior Fellow with the Russian and Eurasian Program at the Carnegie Endowment.