The United States and Saudi Arabia: Old Ties, New Challenges

Wednesday, November 19, 2003

Presenters:
Khalid Al-Dakhil-Professor of Political Sociology at King Saud University and Visiting Scholar, Democracy and Rule of Law Project, Carnegie Endowment

Richard Murphy-Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former Assistant Secretary of State for Near East and South Asian Affairs

Moderator:
Marina Ottaway-Senior Associate, Democracy and Rule of Law Project, Carnegie Endowment

Khalid Al-Dakhil's Presentation on U.S.-Saudi Relations

Professor Khalid Al-Dakhil began by challenging the widespread belief that the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia is deteriorating. Certain traditional ties are coming under increased pressure, but the situation is far more complex than conventional wisdom in Washington suggests. It is true that there has been a marked increase in the level of criticism within Washington policy circles of the Saudi government. For example, critics charge that Saudi's anti-terrorism efforts remain insufficient, that it is an untrustworthy ally (as shown by its refusal to back the Iraq war), and that Saudi charities are funding Al Qaeda. Perhaps most importantly, some people in Washington, especially among the neoconservatives, now view the current Saudi regime as part of the problem rather than part of the solution in the war on terrorism.

Professor Al-Dakhil noted that while neoconservatives certainly play an important role in the U.S. policymaking process, their views are not unchallenged. Some high-profile Americans continue to advocate close U.S.-Saudi ties based on realist considerations. Even President Bush has praised the kingdom's upcoming local elections as an indication that the royal family takes reform seriously. Likewise, the Bush administration is usually complimentary towards Saudi efforts to fight terrorism. Perhaps more importantly, the two pillars of the relationship-oil and security-remain fundamentally unchanged.

U.S. dependence on foreign oil continues to increase. Saudi Arabia plays, and will continue to play, a vital role as the holder of the world's largest oil reserves and the only supplier able to increase production dramatically in a crisis. Security dynamics have undoubtedly changed in the wake of two Gulf wars, the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq, and America's increasing regional hegemony. At least for the time being, however, both states remain largely wedded to traditional security arrangements. A number of factors, such as the rise of the religious and political right in both America and Israel, portend future changes. Nevertheless, current relations are not necessarily deteriorating, but they are taking a different, still largely undetermined direction. It is important to realize that differences in how observers perceive Saudi Arabia stem primarily from political convictions. Likewise, how any one person conceptualizes the U.S.-Saudi relationship largely depends on that person's political agenda.

Richard Murphy's Comments

Richard Murphy added a number of qualifications and comments to Professor Al-Dakhil's analysis. While the political and religious right is an increasingly powerful force in both Israel and the United States, it is important to note that the whole Middle East has seen a rise in the power of religious conservatives. Thus, it would be a mistake to attribute changes solely to the United States and Israel. Second, Murphy agreed that U.S. interests remain essentially unchanged as oil dependency continues to rise. Saudi Arabia plays a uniquely important role in that sector and U.S. policy will continue to reflect that reality. Murphy doubted that Iraq will turn into a trusted U.S. ally and he is sure that the U.S. will certainly maintain a presence in the Middle East to protect the world's oil supply. Thus, the U.S. is committed to defending Saudi Arabia from international threats. But this support does not translate into a willingness to intervene to protect the regime from domestic challenges.

Synopsis prepared by Geoffrey Swenson, Junior Fellow with the Democracy and Rule of Law Project at the Carnegie Endowment.