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Oil and the Iran War: How Bad Can It Get?
Wed, September 23rd, 2026
10:00 AM - 10:45 AM (EDT)
Live Online
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At the beginning of the U.S.-Iran war, a belief it would be a short conflict, combined with significant pre-war supply, held oil prices down. But reality has now intruded. Two of the planet's most important choke points—the Strait of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandeb—are no longer free and unfettered; six months of lost supply is eroding commercial and strategic reserves; and the cost of diesel fuel is up and refining capacity is down.
As we enter the seventh month of the conflict, what is the present state of the flow of oil, natural gas, and other hydrocarbons? What do the next few months hold for energy security, global supply and price? Is a deal to restore pre-war oil flow, and the work needed to restore production capacity, even possible?
Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a wide-ranging conversation about the geopolitics and economics of the Iran war and its impact on global oil supply, on the next Carnegie Connects.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
Event Speakers
Senior Fellow, American Statecraft Program
Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, focusing on U.S. foreign policy.
Helima Croft
Managing Director, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research, RBC Capital Markets
Helima Croft is a managing director and the head of Global Commodity Strategy and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) research at RBC Capital Markets. She specializes in geopolitics and energy, leading a team of commodity strategists that cover energy, metals, and cross‐commodity investor activity.