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Podcast Episode
Carnegie Politika

Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman

Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and one of the most sought-after analysts of the battlefield dynamics in Ukraine, to discuss the situation on the ground and the trajectory of the war.

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By Alexander Gabuev and Michael Kofman
Published on Apr 24, 2025

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Carnegie Politika is a digital publication that features unmatched analysis and insight on Russia, Ukraine and the wider region. For nearly a decade, Carnegie Politika has published contributions from members of Carnegie’s global network of scholars and well-known outside contributors and has helped drive important strategic conversations and policy debates.

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The United States and its allies and partners need a sustainable, long-term policy framework to defeat Russia’s aggression and help ensure a future for Ukraine as a resilient democracy anchored firmly in Europe. Carnegie has launched a multiyear initiative that will contribute policy and analytical heft to these efforts, in partnership with Ukrainian scholars.

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While recent diplomatic efforts to bring Ukraine and Russia to a peace deal and the unexpected Easter truce announced by Putin are bearing no fruit, the situation on the battlefield remains the most influential factor in the future trajectory of the war—including diplomatic attempts to bring the conflict to a halt. Donald Trump seems to believe that Ukraine will inevitably lose the war if a peace deal that can satisfy the Kremlin isn’t achieved. But is that really the case? What shape are Ukrainian and Russian forces in terms of manpower, equipment, and tactics? And what are the potential scenarios for the 2025 campaign?

Hosted by

Alexander Gabuev
Director, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Alexander Gabuev

Featuring

Michael Kofman
Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Michael Kofman

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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