Podcast Episode
Milan Vaishnav and Tanul Thakur discuss Tanul's new book "Wild Wild East: Exiled Americans, Enslaved Indians and the Systemic Abuse of the H-1B Visa Programme."
Milan Vaishnav, Tanul Thakur
Podcast Episode
What Really Happened in India's 2024 General Election?
Milan Vaishnav welcomes Sanjay Kumar, co-director of India's premier public opinion research organization, to recap the results from India's 2024 general elections with findings from this year's National Election Study.
Published on Sep 18, 2024
It has been more than three months since the conclusion of India’s massive 2024 general elections. And it is no exaggeration to say that the results of the election caught many, if not most, election observers by surprise.
To many, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appeared invincible in national elections especially given the widespread popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And yet, the party suffered a significant setback, emerging as the single largest party but well short of a parliamentary majority.
So, what actually happened in these elections? How can we understand the BJP’s surprising showing? Has the Modi magic dissipated? And is Rahul Gandhi the new standard bearer of change?
To discuss these and many other questions, Milan is joined on the show this week by Sanjay Kumar. Sanjay is Professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies in New Delhi and co-director of Lokniti, India’s premier public opinion research organization. Since 1996, Lokniti has carried out a National Election Study after every general election, creating a unique repository of knowledge on the political and social attitudes of the Indian citizen.
On the show, Milan and Sanjay discuss the key findings from this year’s National Election Study. They talk about the resonance of the INDIA alliance’s campaign, divergent outcomes in the Hindi belt, Modi’s declining popularity, and the emerging realignment in southern politics. Plus, the two discuss the reasons for India’s exit poll debacle.
Episode notes:
1. Suhas Palshikar, Sandeep Shastri, and Sanjay Kumar, “CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey: There is no clear and close challenger to the BJP this time. ‘Ifs and buts’ apply,” Hindu, April 13, 2024.
2. Sandeep Shastri, Sanjay Kumar, and Suhas Palshikar, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: A return to an era of genuine coalitions,” Hindu, June 6, 2024.
3. Lokniti Team, “Post-poll survey: Methodology,” Hindu, June 6, 2024.
4. Sandeep Shastri, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Modi factor seems to have stagnated over a decade,” Hindu, June 6, 2024.
5. Sanjay Kumar and Fuhaar Bandhu, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: BJP maintains advantage among young voters,” June 7, 2024.
6. Lokniti Team, “CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Clearing misconceptions about the post-poll survey,” Hindu, June 9, 2024.
7. “Decoding the 2024 Indian General Elections (with Sunetra Choudhury and Rahul Verma),” Grand Tamasha, June 6, 2024.
8. “Why India’s Modi Underperformed (with Ravi Agrawal, Yamini Aiyar, and Milan Vaishnav),” FP Live, June 7, 2024.
9. “India's 2024 Election—and its Aftermath (with Sadanand Dhume and Tanvi Madan),” Grand Tamasha, June 19, 2024.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Grand Tamasha
- The Dark Side of the H-1B Dream
- What Do Indians Think About the World?Podcast Episode
Discussing their new short book, Indian Public Opinion toward the Major Powers, Paul Staniland, and Aidan Milliff join Milan Vaishnav to discuss the treasure trove of data on Indian public opinion they stumbled upon, the characteristics of India’s “foreign policy public,” and the variation in Indian attitudes toward the United States, China, and Russia/the Soviet Union. Plus, the discuss why a respondent’s region emerges as a strong predictor of one’s foreign policy views.
Milan Vaishnav, Paul Staniland, Aidan Milliff
- India’s Nordic ConnectionPodcast Episode
Host Milan Vaishnav and Ambassador May-Elin Stener discuss the outcomes of the India-Nordic summit, the Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA), and the green technology partnership Norway envisions with India.
Milan Vaishnav, May-Elin Stener
- BJP Ascendant at Home, Tested AbroadPodcast Episode
Milan Vaishnav, Sadanand Dhume, and Tanvi Madan discuss whether India is becoming a “one-party state,” the current state of the opposition, and the headwinds facing the Indian economy. Plus, the three discuss Pakistan’s diplomatic moment, Trump’s recent China trip, and Marco Rubio’s visit to India.
Milan Vaishnav, Tanvi Madan, Sadanand Dhume
- Rethinking India’s Growth StoryPodcast Episode
This week, Milan Vaishnav and Abhishek Anand discuss the controversy over India’s GDP estimates, important reforms within India’s statistics ministry, and the debate over the Reserve Bank of India’s policies to defend the rupee. Plus, the two discuss Abhishek’s work on power sector reform and the embrace of non-tariff barriers that stymie the spirit of India’s new bilateral trade agreements.
Milan Vaishnav, Abhishek Anand
