Source: Carnegie

4 August 2004
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

As Hong Kong nears its September 12th legislative elections, the city’s democrats and the United States need to take cautious steps to ensure democratization takes hold in Hong Kong, warns Veron Hung, associate in the China Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In a new policy brief, Getting to Democracy in Hong Kong, Hung offers specific recommendations: Hong Kong democrats must get out the vote in September and tone down their demands; the United States must reject the punitive economic measures against Hong Kong currently being considered by the U.S. Congress; and both parties must better understand Beijing’s fears and respond to its efforts to reach out to Hong Kong democrats. Access Carnegie’s new policy brief, at www.CarnegieEndowment.org/china. A Mandarin translation will be available on September 1st.

Stakes are high in the struggle for Hong Kong’s democratization. Its course will be an indicator of how Greater China may politically adapt in the future, especially with regard to Taiwan. In addition, approximately 1,100 U.S. firms with more than $38.5 billion invested operate in Hong Kong. These interests must be protected by fair, accountable political and legal systems, and certainly would be threatened by political crisis.

To democratize peacefully, Hung recommends that Hong Kong democrats drop their demand for universal suffrage in 2007-08 but require commensurate concessions from Beijing—specifically, a blueprint and timetable for democratization—and refocus on the 2012 elections. Yet, in order to gain this leverage with Beijing, democrats must win at the polls in September; many estimate that voter turnout needs to be at a challenging 70-80 percent to achieve this goal. Since Beijing will likely attempt to divide and conquer the candidates, it is imperative that democrats mobilize voters and sharpen their political skills to stay united.

The United States also has a critical role to play. Contrary to views of critics in Congress, the United States should not suspend Hong Kong’s current special treatment under the U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act. Instead, the United States should practice low-profile diplomacy, quietly reminding Beijing that international criticism of the ban on universal suffrage could overshadow the 2008 Olympics. U.S. NGOs can also help advise Hong Kong’s less-experienced democrats and monitor the coming elections.

Veron Hung is an associate in the China Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She is admitted as a barrister in England, Wales, and Hong Kong, and is a member of the New York and D.C. Bars. A native of Hong Kong, Hung has worked in private practice and academia, and as a consultant for the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.