The Carnegie Endowment — the only U.S. think tank to oppose the war in Iraq before the invasion — offers a large body of up-to-date work on this critical issue:
• An analysis of the current situation in Iraq
• Cost of the War
• Troop surge
• Possible ways forward
• The sectarian divide in Iraq
• The Iraqi constitution
• Carnegie Iraq experts
• More resources
Carnegie produced an alternative approach – before the war – of a more robust inspections regime for possible WMD, Iraq: A New Approach, which is still cited as one of the best examples of how a think tank can contribute to and improve policy.
 FEATURED The Fifth Anniversary of the Iraq WarCarnegie President Jessica T. Mathews shares her thoughts on lessons learned in the five years since the invasion, the debate over withdrawal, the “surge” and lack of political progress, and guiding principles for US foreign policy in the future. Mathews argues that much of what has happened in Iraq proved to be utterly predictable and — at the cost of many lives and billions of dollars — destabilized the region and created an incredibly divisive political debate over the withdrawal of troops.  View the video |
The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict
After five years of conflict, the costs of our involvement In Iraq and Afghanistan now total $3 trillion—and counting. In discussing his new book, The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict, Joseph E. Stiglitz reveals a litany of costs—the vast majority financed through borrowing—that have been hidden from U.S. taxpayers and will continue to add up in the years ahead.
The Stalemate in Iraq
Responding to Congressional testimony by General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Director of Carnegie's Middle East Program, Marina Ottaway, writes in the Guardian that despite success in dampening down violence in Iraq, the surge has done little to improve the political stalemate both in Iraq and the U.S. that continues to cripple substantive progress.
The Effectiveness of the “Surge”
Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews appeared on BBC Radio 4’s The World Tonight to discuss the effectiveness of the “surge” in meeting its objectives in Iraq. Mathews argues that while a departure of U.S. troops from Iraq would likely increase violence in the short-term, it remains unclear whether the consequences of staying are better for the U.S. and Iraq in the medium- and long-term. “At the cost of a lot of lives and an enormous amount of money—$12 billion a month—we are basically paying both sides to turn to each other and not to kill us. We are paying Sunni militia, we’re paying Shi’a militia, and that is obviously not a long-term formula for progress.”
Is Keeping Troops in Iraq in America’s Best Interests?
In a September 18 debate hosted by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia, Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews and Ambassador Chas. W. Freeman, former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and president of the Middle East Policy Council, argue against keeping troops in Iraq, while American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Resident Scholar Frederick W. Kagan, an architect of the “surge” plan, and Reuel Marc Gerecht, AEI resident fellow, argue in favor. The event was moderated by Margaret Warner, PBS’s The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer.
Click here for video, and transcript.
The Surge Has Failed in its Objective
Following Congressional testimony by General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker, Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews examines President Bush’s request for more time in Iraq. She argues that “buying more time to continue the same strategy can achieve nothing…. What is happening in Iraq is not a war the United States can win or lose. It is the inevitable struggle for power that rushes to fill a political vacuum…”
President Bush's Plan to Boost Troops in Iraq
In his address to the nation, President Bush called for an increase of more than 20,000 U.S. troops on the ground in Iraq. But his plan is already attracting skeptics on Capitol Hill and elsewhere. Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews joined commentators January 10, 2007, on a special edition of NPR’s All Things Considered to provide analysis immediately following the President’s speech.
Click through for audio of the segment.
Troop Surge in Iraq
Carnegie’s Robert Kagan, Washington Post columnist and author of Dangerous Nation, appeared on C-SPAN's Q & A, on March 4, 2007, to discuss the Iraq war and the President’s troop surge. Dangerous Nation identifies a policy of aggressive expansion throughout American history.
Send More Troops
The widespread desire to get out of Iraq is producing much wishful thinking about how such a withdrawal can be accomplished and at what cost. In a New Republic Online article on November 27, 2006, Carnegie Senior Associate Robert Kagan argues that what's needed in Iraq is more U.S. troops in order to secure Baghdad.
Bush Must Call for Reinforcements in Iraq
A recent Financial Times article on November 13, 2006, co-authored by Carnegie's Robert Kagan and William Kristol, editor of Weekly Standard, proposes that the central legacy of Bush's presidency will revolve around whether the war in Iraq succeeds or fails. They believe that, even with the results of the midterm elections, the best possible strategy is to call for more troops, in order to ensure a peaceful and stable Iraq in the future.
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The New Middle East
Carnegie Report, February 2008
A political solution in Iraq cannot be achieved under the current policy based on a U.S. model of what Iraq should be, rather than what it is. To move forward, the United States must acknowledge that current efforts have failed, put Iraq’s political leaders on notice that the United States will not support them indefinitely, and engage with all of Iraq’s political factions.
The Situation in Iraq
Jessica T. Mathews, Testimony, July 18, 2007
On July 18, 2007, Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews testified before the House Armed Services Committee: “The current conversation in Washington badly distorts what is happening in Iraq and what our options are. As it has from the very beginning, U.S. strategy has more to do with political needs in Washington than with realities on the ground—to our continuing confusion and detriment.” Mathews provided five key considerations that may offer a new approach.
Iraq Suicide Bombings and Political Stability
As political instability continues to plague the Iraqi government, and following the deadliest suicide attacks of the war, Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews and other regional experts discuss the country's political and security struggles on the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer on August 15, 2007. Addressing the ongoing political stalemate in Bagdad, Mathews said, “What we need is a more inclusive process that includes both groups outside the government inside Iraq and Syria and Iran.“
Click here for video, audio, and transcript.
Getting Real in Iraq
Carnegie Middle East Program Director Marina Ottaway addresses the current debate about a new political strategy in Iraq. In a June 7, 2007, washingtonpost.com analysis she argues, "If we want to restore stability in Iraq we need to help Iraqis negotiate a framework that recognizes and manages the divisions that exist in the country.”
The Shia-Sunni Divide: Myths and Reality
In an Al Ahram Weekly article, Omayma Abdel-Latif comments on the recent apparent sectarian edge to conflicts and political rivalries in the Middle East unseen since the 1982-1989 war between Iraq and Iran. She discusses the different rationales to explain this trend, especially the question of whether or not we are currently witnessing a "Shia revival." In terms of the Sunni-Shia conflict, Abdel-Latif examines how both sides view the possible repercussions of deepening sectarian divisions.
Note to the Next President
On March 30, 2007, Charlie Rose interviewed Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews, on what her foreign policy recommendations would be to the next U.S. President. The interview covered such issues as taking military action; a political settlement in Iraq; preventing the potential collapse of the nuclear nonproliferation regime; the Indian civil nuclear deal; relations with Iran, North Korea, and China; and America's role in the world.
Click through for video of the interview.
Four Years Later
Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews participated in a discussion on The Newshour with Jim Lehrer on March 29, 2007, to examine the president's comments on the fourth anniversary of the Iraq invasion and the political battle over what to do next. Among the topics explored were the troop increase, continuing violence and growing calls to withdraw.
Click through for audio, video, and transcript.
Worst-Case Scenarios in Iraq, and Solutions
From the Bush administration to the Iraq Study Group, the primary approach to Iraq seems to reflect “best-case” thinking. Taking the opposite approach, Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews and other experts appeared on NPR's All Things Considered December 18, 2006, to discuss what the worst case scenario might be for Iraq, and how U.S. policy should respond.
What Should Be Done About Iraq?
As the Bush administration looks for a new course in Iraq, Carnegie Middle East Program Director Marina Ottaway stresses that both domestic and regional issues must be addressed in any move forward. She explores the two approaches under discussion: a strong central government that can impose order or a de facto partition of Iraq into autonomous regions. Ottaway argues that the partition approach is a “real possibility and allows for solutions to be “worked out to some extent one region at a time.
America's Learning Disability in Iraq
The mistakes made leading into the Iraq war are largely agreed upon, yet the U.S. government—Democrats and Republicans alike—appears to be acting on the same assumptions that led to these mistakes as we begin to disengage from the war. FP Editor in Chief Moisés Naím analyzes why America suffers from this curious learning disability in a piece which appeared in PostGlobal April 6, 2007.
Even If We Leave Now, We'll Be Back
The desire in Washington to pull troops out of Iraq is strong, but Carnegie's David Rothkopf argues in a Washington Post op-ed on December 10, 2006, that the economic and political reasons we entered the war remain, including oil, tensions with Iran and the growing dangers of nuclear proliferation. He considers the likelihood of a Third Gulf War, stating, "however we may try to extricate ourselves from Iraq today, the best we can hope for is an end to only this latest chapter of U.S. military involvement in the region. There is no getting out of the Middle East. Even if we leave now, we'll be back."
Iraq Strategy Casts Shadow Over Gates Hearings
On December 4, 2006, Carnegie President Jessica T. Mathews and former Pentagon official Dov Zakheim discussed the confirmation process for the Bush administration's nominee for defense secretary, Robert Gates and the changing U.S. strategy in Iraq in an interview on The Newshour with Jim Lehrer. Click through for transcript, video, and audio.
Iraq Four Years after the U.S.-Led Invasion: Assessing the Crisis and Searching for a Way Forward
As the U.S. "surge" in Iraq enters its sixth month, Faleh Jabar reflects on the full history of the Iraq war and examines the viability of the current strategy in a new Carnegie Policy Outlook. Jabar argues, "The resolution of the Iraqi crisis can only come about through the construction of an inclusive, pluralistic, and federal polity with broad participation and strong political and security institutions."
More Leaks, Please: Questioning the Iraq Intelligence Report
Most media reports on the National Intelligence Estimate on the “Trends in Global Terrorism,” have concluded that the escalation of the terrorist threat level is a result of the Iraq war. In his September 26, 2006 Washington Post column, Carnegie Senior Associate Robert Kagan argues against this interpretation, and cites multiple other variables that would need to be analyzed to make this distinction.
Who Wins in Iraq?: 6. Arab Dictators
In a March/April 2007 cover story, Foreign Policy magazine asked, "Who Wins in Iraq" and presented ten answers. In the number six slot, Carnegie's Marina Ottaway argues that the failure of U.S. policy in Iraq has provided autocratic regimes in the Middle East a reprieve from the pressure to democratize, as long as they position themselves clearly on the side of Washington in its looming confrontation with Iran, Syria, and Shiite Islamists. Ottaway discusses the short-lived push for democracy in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and concludes that "It's back to Cold War politics in the Middle East."
Iraq: What Next? – Joseph Cirincione, Jessica Tuchman Mathews, George Perkovich,Carnegie Report, January 2003
Iraq’s Forces: The Hole in the U.S. Security Strategy?, Jeff Miller, Policy Outlook, March 16, 2005
Iraq: Without Consensus, Democracy Is Not the Answer, Marina Ottaway, Carnegie Policy Brief, No. 36, 2005
War Is Not Yet Necessary, Washington Post, January 28, 2003
Political Reconstruction in Iraq: A Reality Check, Marina Ottaway, Policy Outlook, March 2003
A Real Plan for Rebuilding Iraq, Marina Ottaway, International Herald Tribune, March 3, 2003
Iraq: A New Approach, Jessica T. Mathews, Carnegie Report, September 2002
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IRAQ CONSTITUTION
An expert on Arab constitutionalism, Carnegie Visiting Scholar Nathan Brown offers insightful commentary and analyses on all key stages of the Iraqi constitutional process.
Click here for extensive resources on the Iraq Constitution.
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WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications
This study, released on January 8, 2004, details what the U.S. and international intelligence communities understood about Iraq's weapons programs before the war and outlines policy reforms to improve threat assessments, deter transfer of WMD to terrorists, strengthen the UN weapons inspection process, and avoid politicization of the intelligence process. The report distills a massive amount of data into side-by-side comparisons of pre-war intelligence, the official presentation of that intelligence, and what is now known about Iraq's programs. This report was authored by Joseph Cirincione, Jessica Tuchman Mathews, George Perkovich, with Alexis Orton.
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Jessica T. Mathews
Jessica Tuchman Mathews was appointed president of the Endowment in 1997. Her career includes posts in the executive and legislative branches of government, in management and research in the nonprofit arena, and in journalism. Mathews broke with the majority of her peers in 2003 to oppose the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, appearing on the Oprah Winfrey Show to discuss her objections to the invasion. Mathews was co-author of Carnegie’s Iraq: What’s Next? a January 2003 Carnegie report arguing against immediate military invasion of Iraq due to the civil unrest that would result, recommending instead a strengthened, multinational inspections process.
Marina Ottaway
Marina Ottaway is the director of the Middle East Program at the Endowment. She specializes in democracy and post-conflict reconstruction issues, with special focus on problems of political transformation in the Middle East and reconstruction in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Balkans, and African countries.
Paul Salem (Beirut)
Paul Salem is the new director of the Carnegie Middle East Center. Prior to his appointment, he was the General Director at The Fares Foundation and from 1989 to 1999 he founded and directed the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, Lebanon’s leading public policy think tank.
Robert Kagan
Robert Kagan is senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment and is based in Brussels. Dr. Kagan writes a monthly column on world affairs for the Washington Post and is a contributing editor at both the Weekly Standard and the New Republic. He served in the State Department from 1984 to 1988 as a member of the Policy Planning Staff, as principal speechwriter for Secretary of State George P. Shultz, and as deputy for policy in the Bureau of Inter-American Affairs. He is the author of Dangerous Nation: America's Place in the World from its Earliest Days to the Dawn of the Twentieth Century (2006), and Of Paradise and Power (2003)
Amr Hamzawy
Amr Hamzawy is a noted Egyptian political scientist who previously taught at Cairo University and the Free University of Berlin. Hamzawy has a deep knowledge of Middle East politics and specific expertise on the reform process in the region.
Karim Sadjadpour
Karim Sadjadpour joined Carnegie after four years as the chief Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group based in Tehran and Washington, D.C. Sadjadpour is available to comment on the role of Iran in the ongoing conflict in Iraq, as well as the broader U.S.-Iranian relationship.
The Middle East Program
Combining in-depth local knowledge with incisive comparative analysis, Carnegie’s Middle East Program examines politics in the Arab world. The Program studies extensively attempts at political reform, through detailed country studies and the exploration of key cross-cutting themes. The Program has special expertise in Islamist participation in pluralistic politics throughout the region.
Carnegie Middle East Center
In 2006, the Carnegie Endowment established the Carnegie Middle East Center as a permanent presence in the region. Located in Beirut, Lebanon, the Center is led and staffed by leading researchers from the region. The Endowment recognizes that building knowledge, improving relations, and encouraging change in the region and between the region and the West has to be done in partnership and that a sustained physical presence is essential to achieve that. The Middle East Center will help to better inform the process of political change in the Arab Middle East and deepen understanding of the complex economic and security issues that affect it.
Arab Reform Bulletin
The Arab Reform Bulletin addresses political reform in the Middle East. Sent monthly, it offers analysis from U.S.-based and Middle Eastern political experts, as well as news synopses and annotated resource guides. An Arabic edition (ARB-Arabic) is also available.
