• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Paul Salem"
  ],
  "type": "other",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center",
  "programAffiliation": "MEP",
  "programs": [
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Levant",
    "Syria",
    "Middle East",
    "Israel"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

Other
Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Syrian–Israeli Peace: A Possible Key to Regional Change

An Israeli–Syrian peace deal is a real possibility and would have a positive effect on the Middle East and U.S. interests there. But the two sides will not reach an agreement without U.S. leadership. The incoming administration should use a balance of pressure, incentives, and robust diplomacy to make the agreement a reality.

Link Copied
By Paul Salem
Published on Dec 10, 2008
Program mobile hero image

Program

Middle East

The Middle East Program in Washington combines in-depth regional knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to provide deeply informed recommendations. With expertise in the Gulf, North Africa, Iran, and Israel/Palestine, we examine crosscutting themes of political, economic, and social change in both English and Arabic.

Learn More

An Israeli–Syrian peace deal is a real possibility and would have a positive effect on the Middle East and U.S. interests there. But the two sides will not reach an agreement without U.S. leadership. The incoming administration should use a balance of pressure, incentives, and robust diplomacy to make the agreement a reality, concludes a new paper by the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

Paul Salem argues that President-elect Barack Obama should continue the Bush administration’s policy of pressuring Syria to keep out of Lebanon and Iraq, which has helped push Syria towards a peace agreement. But the new administration must pursue a more balanced approach with strong diplomacy to reach a land-for-peace deal over the occupied Golan Heights.

Key Conclusions:

  • The United States would only benefit from an agreement, which would help stabilize Lebanon and Iraq and curb Iran’s influence in the region. Leading the push to secure a peace agreement would also help restore America’s image in the Middle East.
  • The outlines of such a treaty were largely fleshed out during previous negotiations, but finalization and implementation will be challenging. Syria views complete Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights as the first step, while Israel does not want to withdraw from the Golan Heights until it is sure Syria has abandoned its support for Hizbollah and Hamas and fundamentally altered its relations with Iran.
     
  • The majority of Israeli political elites recognize the value of an accord with Syria, which would put pressure on Lebanon to negotiate a peace treaty, limit Hizbollah and Hamas’ strategic options, and weaken Iran’s influence.
     
  • Syria has much to gain from an agreement. The return of the Golan Heights would be a significant coup for Bashar Assad, the regime—like other Arab regimes that have signed peace deals with Israel—would acquire long term security, and Syria would benefit economically. 
     
  • Syria will need to change its relations with Iran as part of an agreement. It could follow Turkey’s example, which has very good political, economic, and security relations with Iran but is not locked into a political or military alliance.

Salem concludes:

“The issues between Israel and Syria are complex, and the challenge of shifting Syria’s strategic posture is even more demanding. Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has done an excellent job so far. But it will take a fully empowered U.S. secretary of state or presidential envoy—and, eventually, direct presidential engagement—to achieve a breakthrough on the Syrian–Israeli track.”

About the Author

Paul Salem

Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute

Paul Salem is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.

    Recent Work

  • Paper
    Iraq’s Tangled Foreign Interests and Relations

      Paul Salem

  • Article
    Bracing for Impact in Syria

      Paul Salem

Paul Salem
Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute
Paul Salem
Political ReformForeign PolicyLevantSyriaMiddle EastIsrael

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    How to Join the EU in Three Easy Steps

    Montenegro and Albania are frontrunners for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans, but they can’t just sit back and wait. To meet their 2030 accession ambitions, they must make a strong positive case.

      Dimitar Bechev, Iliriana Gjoni

  • Article
    Leveraging Internal Security Cooperation with Vietnam Offers a Glimpse of Future Chinese Diplomacy with Southeast Asia

    Despite long-standing differences, China and Vietnam are reinforcing common ground for collaboration, especially in public security. This internal security–centered diplomacy offers a strengthened road map for how China moves forward with Southeast Asia.

      Sophie Zhuang

  • Aerial shot of island community
    Commentary
    One Year After the Great Aid Recession, Investments in Climate Mobility Offer Cost-Effective Returns

    Climate mobility interventions can vary, but they all present opportunities to unlock transformative results that mitigate costs associated with inaction.

      • Alejandro Rodriguez

      Alejandro Martin Rodriguez

  • Man standing next to a pile of burned cars
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The Myriad Problems With the Iran Ceasefire

    Four Middle East experts analyze the region’s reactions and next steps.

      • Andrew Leber
      • Eric Lob
      • +1

      Amr Hamzawy, Andrew Leber, Eric Lob, …

  •  A machine gun of a Houthi soldier mounted on a police vehicle next to a billboard depicting the U.S. president Donald Trump and Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, during a protest staged to show support to Iran against the U.S.-Israel war on March 27, 2026 in Sana'a, Yemen.
    Collection
    The Iran War’s Global Reach

    As the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran continues, Carnegie scholars contribute cutting-edge analysis on the events of the war and their wide-reaching implications. From the impact on Iran and its immediate neighbors to the responses from Gulf states to fuel and fertilizer shortages caused by the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the war is reshaping Middle East alliances and creating shockwaves around the world. Carnegie experts analyze it all.

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600Fax: 202 483 1840
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.