Source: House Armed Services Committee Hearing
While it is still too early to determine for how long the economic dimensions of the global downturn will continue to challenge leaders and populations worldwide, it is already clear that economic turmoil will inevitably beget political turmoil. In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, David Rothkopf explained how to look at the different ways that the crisis is likely to impact geopolitics and U.S. national security interests. He presented a taxonomy of threats followed by examples of specific flashpoints around the world.
Rothkopf outlined a range of dire forecasts for the global economy, then elaborated on the ways the crisis will drive destabilization on national, regional, and global scales. Ultimately, the destabilizing effects of the crisis will spark geopolitical tensions with far-reaching impacts. He stressed that the U.S. must choose its priorities carefully and address the most critical issues first.
The greatest threats associated with the crisis include:
- The economic and political constraints placed on the United States
- The economic and political constraints placed on the EU, China and other potentially stabilizing actors
- The crisis of confidence in institutions worldwide, and the threats to the international system
- The exacerbation of critical threats associated with proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
- The consequences of protracted crisis for the world’s weakest states
- The threats to weak and weakened states directly impacting U.S. national interests
To address these threats, Rothkopf offered a set of recommendations that could minimize the national security risks posed by the crisis.
Key recommendations for U.S. policy:
- Be strategic about marshalling and maintaining U.S. Resources (exercise fiscal restraint and rethink defense budgeting)
- Maximize the means of leveraging U.S. power (maintaining critical institutions and alliances)
- Lead a coordinated, proactive global effort to reduce, eliminate or contain threats (beginning with economic threats)
- Maintain a credible deterrent against bad actors
- Recognize the likelihood of crises emerging beyond the Iraq and Afghanistan-Pakistan conflicts that currently preoccupy the U.S.
- Fight the temptation to turn inward at home and abroad
