• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Alexey Malashenko"
  ],
  "type": "other",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Caucasus",
    "Russia"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Domestic Politics"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

Other
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Losing the Caucasus

Despite the official end of Russia’s counter-terrorist operation in Chechnya, armed clashes and terrorist attacks continue to plague North Caucasus. Open conflict is on the verge of becoming inevitable.

Link Copied
By Alexey Malashenko
Published on Aug 26, 2009

Despite the official end of Russia’s counter-terrorist operation in Chechnya, armed clashes and terrorist attacks continue to plague the region. Open conflict in Russia’s North Caucasus is on the verge of becoming inevitable, warns Alexey Malashenko.

Malashenko identifies a number of factors that contribute to rising tensions:

  • Economic: Growing inequality and unemployment.
     
  • Ethnic: Competing clan interests and disputed borders between and within republics.
     
  • Societal: Rampant corruption and the increasing divide between the ruling elites and the general public.
The federal authorities have achieved some results over the last decade, namely ending the war in Chechnya and replacing a number of unpopular regional leaders with new faces. “As a result,” Malashenko writes, “the federal authorities have managed to achieve at least a fragile peace by offering the local elites an implicit agreement that can be summed up as follows: you give us your loyalty and obedience, and we will not meddle in the way you run your internal affairs.”
 
But Moscow’s policies and approaches have also brought continued instability and permanent political crisis, diminished political institutions and parties, an exaggerated emphasis on the power of individual leaders and a reliance on force, all of which threaten constantly to spin violently out of control. “The authorities’ biggest failure has been in institutionalizing instability,” Malashenko writes.
 
Looking forward, Malashenko explains that, while the North Caucasus will remain within Russia’s territory, they will continue to slip out of Moscow’s control. “It is not possible to resolve the problems of the North Caucasus overnight,” he writes. “Moscow can endlessly shuffle presidents, ‘wipe out’ extremists, threaten those guilty of corruption, and pour billions of rubles of federal money into the region. The North Caucasus remains part of Russia with all of its problems and woes, and with its own power vertical that imitates, after a fashion, the power structure devised by Moscow.”

About the Author

Alexey Malashenko

Former Scholar in Residence, Religion, Society, and Security Program

Malashenko is a former chair of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Religion, Society, and Security Program.

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    What Will Uzbekistan’s New President Do?

      Alexey Malashenko

  • Commentary
    Preserving the Calm in Russia’s Muslim Community

      Alexey Malashenko

Alexey Malashenko
Former Scholar in Residence, Religion, Society, and Security Program
Alexey Malashenko
Political ReformDomestic PoliticsCaucasusRussia

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Aerial view of Chernobyl damage
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Chernobyl Is Still a Current Event, Forty Years Later

    The 1986 incident showed that a nuclear accident anytime is a nuclear accident for all time.

      Corey Hinderstein

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    There Is No Shortcut for Europe in Armenia

    Europe has an interest in supporting Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan as he tries to make peace with neighbors and loosen ties with Russia. But it is depersonalized support in the long term, not quickfire flash, that will win the day.

      Thomas de Waal

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    The Much-Touted Middle Corridor Transport Route Could Prove a Dead End

    For the Middle Corridor to fulfill its promises, one of these routes must become scalable. At present, neither is.

      Friedrich Conradi

  • Crowd On Mumbai city street At night
    Article
    India’s Demographic Dividend Is a Test of Governance

    India’s demographic transition is underway, but its economic payoff remains far from guaranteed.

      • Apoorva Jadhav

      Apoorva Jadhav

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Why Is Belarus’s Approach to Online Censorship So Different From Russia’s?

    For Lukashenko, abandoning Western internet services and embracing Russian equivalents would mean tying himself even closer to Moscow.

      Artyom Shraibman

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.