Paper
Gilles Dorronsoro
{
"authors": [
"Gilles Dorronsoro"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "SAP",
"programs": [
"South Asia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"South Asia",
"Afghanistan"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Already Illegitimate
The upcoming Afghan runoff election has some hoping for a popularly elected legitimate government. However, most Afghans don't like their options enough to vote, and it will be easy for officials to fabricate the results.
Published on Oct 21, 2009
Source: The New York Times
This reinforces the growing alienation of the Afghans toward Kabul, and threatens to smother the nascent democratic government in its cradle.
In the first round of elections in August, the Hazara ethnic group in northern Afghanistan agreed to deliver its votes to Karzai, but nonetheless split in support of rival candidate and former planning minister Ramazan Bashardost, and the Uzbek warlord Rashid Dostum failed to rally decisive support for Karzai.
This time around, the weather will be worse, and the plain fact is, most Afghans don’t like their options enough to vote.
From what observers saw of the voting in August, real turnout was very low — much lower than the 38 percent official figure. In Helmand, despite the presence of thousands of foreign troops — who were ostensibly there to provide security for the elections — the likely turnout was probably around 5 percent. The same is probably true for Kandahar.
In many Pashtun districts in the south and east, the government controls only the provincial or district centers, and the Taliban dominate the countryside. The situation there is too dangerous, too uncertain and too insecure to send international observers. So it will be quite easy for government officials to fabricate the results of the runoff election.
About the Author
Gilles Dorronsoro
Former Nonresident Scholar, South Asia Program
Dorronsoro’s research focuses on security and political development in Afghanistan. He was a professor of political science at the Sorbonne in Paris and the Institute of Political Studies of Rennes.
- Waiting for the Taliban in Afghanistan
- Afghanistan: The Impossible TransitionPaper
Gilles Dorronsoro
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Georgia’s Fall From U.S. Favor Heralds South Caucasus RealignmentCommentary
With the White House only interested in economic dealmaking, Georgia finds itself eclipsed by what Armenia and Azerbaijan can offer.
Bashir Kitachaev
- Who Will Be Iran’s Next Supreme Leader?Commentary
If the succession process can be carried out as Khamenei intended, it will likely bring a hardliner into power.
Eric Lob
- Turkey Has Two Key Interests in the Iran ConflictCommentary
But to achieve either, it needs to retain Washington’s ear.
Alper Coşkun
- What Does War in the Middle East Mean for Russia–Iran Ties?Commentary
If the regime in Tehran survives, it could be obliged to hand Moscow significant political influence in exchange for supplies of weapons and humanitarian aid.
Nikita Smagin
- Bombing Campaigns Do Not Bring About Democracy. Nor Does Regime Change Without a Plan.Commentary
Just look at Iraq in 1991.
Marwan Muasher
