Source: New York Times
No Tipping Point YetSaudi Arabia withstood last week’s “day of rage” relatively easily — the situation remained calm despite some early violence and arrests in the Eastern Province and major protests never materialized. This was just as expected. Despite the regional upheaval and the idea of revolution gripping hearts and minds across the Middle East and North Africa, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to go through a fundamental change. The government is secure and is better prepared to manage the crisis than its neighbors.
Even though massive demonstrations haven’t roiled Saudi Arabia, activists have been inspired by protesters around the region and are calling for political and social reforms. They want improved civil liberties, less corruption, better financial transparency, and limits on the monarchy’s power. But protesters are not openly calling for the royal family to be overthrown — they are just looking for more responsive government.
The royal family has relied on a new social welfare package, religious persuasion, and not-so-subtle threats of coercion to neutralize opposition and defuse popular unrest. King Abdullah announced a new $36 billion package in February that will provide unemployment assistance, offer more affordable housing for families, and make pay raises for state employees permanent. While this amount was undoubtedly increased with the protests in Tunisia and Egypt in mind, it is still a manageable amount for the government as it only accounts for a little over 8 percent of the country’s foreign currency reserves.
By mobilizing the official clerical establishment, the government is using religious justifications to mute calls for demonstrations. Leading imams and the country’s highest religious body are denouncing protests as un-Islamic. The amount of influence such efforts have is unclear, but they are typical tools for social control in Saudi Arabia. Beyond this, demonstrations are strictly forbidden in the kingdom and the government isn’t wasting any opportunity to reemphasize the illegality.
The government will likely announce a cabinet reshuffle soon, which will present an opportunity to introduce some new blood into an aging government. The Saudi government will have to introduce political reforms, but change will not come quickly to the kingdom. For Riyadh the challenge will be to manage the process of introducing changes without exacerbating societal tensions. While economic improvements may temporarily hold off calls for political reform, they cannot replace them indefinitely.