• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Minxin Pei"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "AP",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "East Asia",
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Democracy"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media

Three Reasons for Beijing's Current Campaign Against Dissent

China's ongoing crackdown on domestic dissidents stems from a number of factors, including Beijing's fears about potential broader unrest and political posturing ahead of the upcoming leadership transition.

Link Copied
By Minxin Pei
Published on Apr 11, 2011
Program mobile hero image

Program

Asia

The Asia Program in Washington studies disruptive security, governance, and technological risks that threaten peace, growth, and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region, including a focus on China, Japan, and the Korean peninsula.

Learn More

Source: CNN

Three Reasons for Beijing's Current Campaign AgainWith the arrest of one of China’s most famous artists, Ai Weiwei, in early April, China’s crackdown on domestic dissidents’ movement has reached a new high.

Given his reputation as a world-class artist and a fearless critic of the Chinese government, Mr. Ai is viewed as barometer of the Chinese government’s tolerance of what little dissent there is in China.

In all probability, the decision to put Mr. Ai behind bars must have been made at the highest level - given the all-but-certain international repercussions of such a move.

Mr. Ai’s arrest is the culmination of the recent crackdown on human rights activists, lawyers, and dissidents.   Many have been arrested.  A few have been sentenced to jail terms.

The question is: What is driving the current campaign against dissent in China?

1. Fear of a Jasmine Revolution: The most obvious explanation is that Beijing is deploying pre-emptive tactics to prevent a Chinese “Jasmine Revolution,” however remote the possibility is.  The on-going democratic revolution is the Arab World has surprised and alarmed Chinese leaders.

Even though conditions in China hardly resemble those in the Middle East, Chinese leaders have reason to feel insecure and fearful. After all, inflation is rising; a housing bubble has priced many middle-class individuals out of the market; unemployment among the college-educated is high; popular resentment against official corruption is intense.

So it appears that Beijing would rather err on the side of caution.

2. Leadership jockeying: Another plausible cause is the pending leadership transition, now scheduled for the fall of 2012.  At the moment, jockeying for top leadership positions is at the most delicate stage.  Showing a soft side toward domestic dissent is almost certain to doom an aspiring candidate’s chances for promotion or undercut a patron’s ability to install his protégés into key positions.

In other words, even though some top leaders may not find the idea of arresting someone with Mr. Ai’s fame attractive, they are hardly in a position to object.

3. Responding to the Nobel Peace Prize “offense”: Finally, the arrest of Mr. Ai is most likely a response to the Nobel Peace Prize awarded last year to Mr. Liu Xiaobo, who is serving an 11-year sentence in Beijing for his human rights and pro-democracy activities.

Beijing was outraged by the award, and suffered additional humiliation when its campaign to boycott the award ceremony (which involved preventing many well-known Chinese human rights activists from leaving the country for Norway) attracted even more negative media attention.  Such setbacks notwithstanding, Chinese leaders want to show to the West that they are not going to back down on human rights issues.

How should the West respond? In the short term, the West has few effective options to make Beijing change its mind on human rights.  Other than vocal condemnation - to which Beijing appears to pay no attention - the West has no leverage on China.

Economic interdependence between China and the West has rendered sanctions meaningless.  On occasion, the United States also needs China’s limited cooperation on vital security issues (such as keeping the North Koreans on the reservation).  So an all-out offensive against China’s worsening human rights performance is out of the question.

Ultimately, however, Beijing will pay a significant price for the crackdown.   It may have acquired considerable hard power, but it yearns for respect.  As long as human rights activists like Mr. Ai are languishing in jail, such respect will be in very short supply.

About the Author

Minxin Pei

Former Adjunct Senior Associate, Asia Program

Pei is Tom and Margot Pritzker ‘72 Professor of Government and the director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College.

    Recent Work

  • In The Media
    How China Can Avoid the Next Conflict

      Minxin Pei

  • In The Media
    Small Change

      Minxin Pei

Minxin Pei
Former Adjunct Senior Associate, Asia Program
Minxin Pei
Political ReformDemocracyEast AsiaChina

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Shadowed figure lighting grocery store shelves
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Five Years After His Power Grab, Tunisia’s President Has Only Achieved Failure

    Saied’s main accomplishment has been to destroy a decade’s worth of democratic progress.

      • Sarah Yerkes

      Sarah Yerkes

  • An aerial drone photo taken on June 4, 2026 shows a wind-photovoltaic power storage station of Huadian Inner Mongolia New Energy Co., Ltd. as part of the Horinger data center cluster green energy supply demonstration project, in Hohhot, north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
    Commentary
    Are Data Centers the Solution to China’s Renewables Excess Capacity?

    China’s latest energy plan explicitly calls for integrating data centers into the electricity system, particularly connecting them to green energy. It appears Beijing wants to use compute as a source of domestic demand to absorb renewables excess capacity.

      • Damien Ma

      Damien Ma

  • Commentary
    Sada
    The Channels of China’s Currency Promotion in Gulf Markets

    Is the Gulf moving beyond the dollar? This article examines how China is expanding the renminbi's role across Gulf markets, what that means for regional finance, and why the future of global currencies is more complex than the de-dollarization debate suggests.

      Andrew Bonney

  • Article
    Unlocking India’s Urban Dividend

    As India undergoes a demographic transition, its cities will be its economic powerhouse—but only if it accurately captures city growth and empowers cities to support their citizens.

      • Apoorva Jadhav

      Apoorva Jadhav

  • Article
    Imagining Ukraine’s Political System After the War

    Even if the terms of a ceasefire or peace settlement are satisfactory to most Ukrainians, the country’s democracy will face its fair share of challenges.

      Petro Burkovskyi, Olexiy Haran

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.