Paper
Matthew Rojansky
{
"authors": [
"Matthew Rojansky"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Caucasus",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Is Putin's Victory Guaranteed?
It is not certain that Putin will win the elections on Sunday, but it is very likely. If Putin is elected, he will face implications in Russia's domestic policy and its relationship with the United States.
Published on Mar 2, 2012
Source: CTV (Canada)
- Medvedev: Putin has made promises that Medvedev will be Prime Minister after the elections. However, “whether Medvedev will stay as Prime Minister I think is unlikely,” said Rojansky, adding that “in some ways, he is the perfect fall guy down the road.”
- Domestic Reforms: Given the extensive protests against Putin’s rule, and the likelihood of renewed protests after the election, “Putin is going to do what he has to do,” said Rojansky. There will be a veneer of modernization and Putin will have to make concessions to some demands, such as improving modern technology and creating more opportunities for IT and high-tech jobs. However, “Putin cannot adjust the basic bargain he has made with the oligarchs and Russia’s elite,” warned Rojansky. "If he starts to shake up that deal, those guys will turn against him.”
- Syria: Once it is clear that the Assad regime is falling, Putin cannot sustain Russia’s major financial and security interests in Syria and has no further reason for Russia to continue to support the Assad regime. “If Putin will, in fact, win on Sunday, it becomes much less important for him to draw that line in the sand that says public protests should never be allowed to bring down what he considers to be a legitimate government,” added Rojansky.
- U.S.–Russia Relations: There is a good reason to believe that Putin will sustain the reset relationship with the United States, Rojansky stated.
About the Author
Matthew Rojansky
Former Deputy Director, Russia and Eurasia Program
Rojansky, formerly executive director of the Partnership for a Secure America, is an expert on U.S. and Russian national security and nuclear-weapon policies.
- An Opportunity for Ambition: Ukraine’s OSCE Chairmanship
- Presiding Over the OSCE: Challenges and OpportunitiesIn The Media
Matthew Rojansky
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- As Rubio Lands in India, the U.S.-India Relationship Is Stronger Than It LooksCommentary
Despite public disputes over trade and immigration, the strategic partnership’s foundations remain sturdy.
Sameer Lalwani
- Ukrainian Drone Attacks Reveal the Cost of Russia’s “Sovereign Internet” CampaignCommentary
Russia spent years building a “sovereign internet,” concentrating web infrastructure exclusively within Russian territory. Ukrainian drone attacks have shown how vulnerable that approach has left the Russian internet.
Maria Kolomychenko
- Taking the Pulse: Does the EU Have a France Problem?Commentary
With its public finances in shambles, the far right polling at 35 percent ahead of the 2027 presidential election, and a growing protest movement, is France’s crisis a threat to the EU’s geopolitical awakening?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- How the Latest Election Changed the Role of Russia’s ParliamentCommentary
Putin’s conservative staffing policies and search for ever greater control have cemented parliament’s transformation into a bureaucratic appendage of the executive branch.
Andrey Pertsev
- In the Kremlin’s AI Propaganda Blitz, the Noise Is the SignalCommentary
Russia’s AI-driven propaganda campaigns operate in a fragmented, chaotic, and often illogical manner. That’s not necessarily a problem for the Kremlin, though: It’s much easier to mimic genuine public debate that way.
Ilya Klishin
