Source: CTV (Canada)
Speaking on CTV (Canada), Carnegie's Matthew Rojansky predicted that it is very likely that Putin will win Russia's upcoming presidential elections on Sunday. “It is possible that he will only win a plurality which is just under 50 percent and he will have to go to a run-off. That said, the polls are looking very good for him,” he added. If Putin is selected President of the Russian Federation for the next six years, Rojansky outlined several domestic and international policy implications that he will have to consider:
- Medvedev: Putin has made promises that Medvedev will be Prime Minister after the elections. However, “whether Medvedev will stay as Prime Minister I think is unlikely,” said Rojansky, adding that “in some ways, he is the perfect fall guy down the road.”
- Domestic Reforms: Given the extensive protests against Putin’s rule, and the likelihood of renewed protests after the election, “Putin is going to do what he has to do,” said Rojansky. There will be a veneer of modernization and Putin will have to make concessions to some demands, such as improving modern technology and creating more opportunities for IT and high-tech jobs. However, “Putin cannot adjust the basic bargain he has made with the oligarchs and Russia’s elite,” warned Rojansky. "If he starts to shake up that deal, those guys will turn against him.”
- Syria: Once it is clear that the Assad regime is falling, Putin cannot sustain Russia’s major financial and security interests in Syria and has no further reason for Russia to continue to support the Assad regime. “If Putin will, in fact, win on Sunday, it becomes much less important for him to draw that line in the sand that says public protests should never be allowed to bring down what he considers to be a legitimate government,” added Rojansky.
- U.S.–Russia Relations: There is a good reason to believe that Putin will sustain the reset relationship with the United States, Rojansky stated.