Article
Frederic Grare
{
"authors": [
"Frederic Grare"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "SAP",
"programs": [
"South Asia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"South Asia",
"Afghanistan"
],
"topics": [
"Security",
"Military"
]
}
Source: Getty
Other
Afghanistan Post-2014: Scenarios and Consequences
As the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan approaches, anxieties about the future of the country have increased.
Published on Feb 4, 2014
Source: The German Marshall Fund and the Foundation for Strategic Research
As the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan approaches, anxieties about the future of the country have increased. A palpable sense of pessimism has come to characterize thinking about the Afghan situation in the West, as well as in Afghanistan and among its neighbors. What will happen in Afghanistan and the region when the transition is completed? How will the domestic situation evolve? How will the regional position themselves? What will the impact of the resulting outcome on Western security and solidarity be? These questions and others loom large in considering the future of Afghanistan and its potential impact on regional and international dynamics.
There are no simple answers to these questions; mapping the future of Afghanistan is indeed a complex task. The number of Afghan and non-Afghan actors, their competing interests and fluctuating alliances, and the lack of a cohesive vision for the country's political future makes it difficult, if not impossible, to predict clear scenarios beyond a certain level of generality.This paper analyzes the evolution of four main variables or categories of variables: 1) the readiness of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) to assume responsibility for Afghanistan's security post-2014; 2) the policies of regional actors, especially Pakistan; 3) the role of the United States; a 4) Afghanistan's political system. The paper argues that the latter will ultimately be the decisive factor, as it will condition the sustainability of existing Afghan institutions, including the ANSF, or constrain the external factors. The paper concludes that the future of Afghanistan will likely fall between a "muddle through" scenario where a partly dysfunctional Afghan state will struggle to survive, and a situation of chaos in which all significant state authority will have disappeared and where Afghanistan as a nation is only a loose confederation of fiefdoms. It then examines the potential impact of these variables in the post-2014 era and concludes that Afghanistan is likely to remain a significant security concern for years.
About the Author
Frederic Grare
Former Nonresident Senior Fellow, South Asia Program
Frédéric Grare was a nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where his research focuses on Indo-Pacific dynamics, the search for a security architecture, and South Asia Security issues.
- France, the Other Indo-Pacific Power
- What Sri Lanka’s Presidential Election Means for Foreign PolicyArticle
Frederic Grare
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Fuel Subsidies Are an Easy Fix for the Iran War’s Energy Price Shock—and the Wrong OneCommentary
Instead, governments should adopt climate-friendly measures to address the impact of rising prices.
Henok Asmelash
- Azerbaijan Looks to Tap Ukraine’s Military Expertise With Raft of New DealsCommentary
Baku’s backing for Ukraine is less about confronting Russia than about quietly broadening the mix of partners it relies on.
Zaur Shiriyev
- Pakistan’s Military Consolidation Under Munir Faces Critical ChallengesArticle
The regime bets that international legitimacy can be translated into domestic stability. But that depends upon whether it can leverage international goodwill to manage grievances and the economy at home.
Zoha Waseem, Yasser Kureshi
- The EU Equivocating on Turkey Is Bad GeopoliticsCommentary
Following Ursula von der Leyen’s gaffe equating Turkey to Russia and China, relations with Ankara risk deteriorating even further. Without better, more consistent diplomatic messaging, how can the EU pretend to be a geopolitical power?
Sinan Ülgen
- India’s Demographic Dividend Is a Test of GovernanceArticle
India’s demographic transition is underway, but its economic payoff remains far from guaranteed.
Apoorva Jadhav
