• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Dmitri Trenin"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Russia",
    "Eastern Europe",
    "Ukraine"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Security",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

Commentary
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Ukraine Will Not Die, But It Can Multiply

Russia certainly pursues its interests in Ukraine, as does the United States, but the actual forces engaged there are the locals. The victorious Maidan has proven both unwilling and powerless to bridge or stitch together the fault lines which have emerged.

Link Copied
By Dmitri Trenin
Published on May 12, 2014

Ten days ago, it was the murderous fire in Odessa. Last Friday, the shooting in Mariupol. Both the actions and the inactions of the interim authorities in Kiev helped to split Ukraine, in the name of saving it. The notion that the prime source of Ukraine’s current troubles lies in the Kremlin and that the Ukrainian military and security forces are facing terrorists in the east is self-delusion. Developments in Ukraine follow their own dynamic, and its pace is quickening. The presidential elections set for May 25 will not bring a magic solution. A point may soon be reached when an internally federalized and internationally neutralized Ukraine—Moscow’s mantra—will not be possible.

President Vladimir Putin, so far, has avoided the temptation of a military invasion. Had he decided to go for it, the Russian army would have stepped into a quagmire which would have made the Soviet experience in Afghanistan look a brief and relatively inexpensive excursion by comparison. After his meeting with the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Didier Burkhalter, Putin has even given a qualified endorsement to the presidential elections in Ukraine and “recommended” that the May 11 referenda in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions on their self-determination be postponed. The recommendation was not heeded and Putin was accused of duplicity, but large numbers of people apparently did come and vote.

One can dismiss the regional referenda as illegal, although it is a weak argument in Ukraine’s post-revolutionary context. One can dismiss the real internal divisions in Ukraine only at one’s own peril. Russia certainly pursues its interests in Ukraine, as does the United States, but the actual forces engaged there are the locals. The victorious Maidan has nudged Ukraine off its post-Soviet immobility, but it has proven both unwilling and powerless to bridge or stitch together the fault lines which have emerged. Ukraine will not die, but it can multiply.

About the Author

Dmitri Trenin

Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center

Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space

      Dmitri Trenin

  • Commentary
    What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West Revealed

      Dmitri Trenin

Dmitri Trenin
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Political ReformSecurityForeign PolicyRussiaEastern EuropeUkraine

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • People standing on rocks in the ocean near the shore, with soldiers in the foreground
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The Migration Wave That Embarrassed Morocco and Rattled Europe

    Most migrants may have left Ceuta, but the effects may linger.

      • Alejandro Rodriguez
      • Sarah Yerkes

      Alejandro Martin Rodriguez, Sarah Yerkes

  • Supporters wave VOX and Spanish flags at the start of Patriots for Europe rally at Marriott Auditorium Hotel on February 08, 2025 in Madrid, Spain
    Paper
    How Populist Middle Powers Are—and Are Not—Reshaping Global Politics

    There is a transnational far-right populist movement that links middle powers in a global movement that extends well beyond Trump.

      • Christopher Chivvis

      Christopher S. Chivvis, Rohan Mukherjee, Milan Vaishnav

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Russia Is Exporting Its Fuel Crisis to Central Asia

    When faced with fuel shortages in the past, Central Asian governments could always count on additional supplies from Moscow. That safety net no longer exists.

      Galiya Ibragimova

  • Shadowed figure lighting grocery store shelves
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Five Years After His Power Grab, Tunisia’s President Has Only Achieved Failure

    Saied’s main accomplishment has been to destroy a decade’s worth of democratic progress.

      • Sarah Yerkes

      Sarah Yerkes

  • Port cranes at sunset
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The Drone Attack on Egypt and the Widening Middle East War

    The targeting of Damietta Port appears to be more than a mere security message.

      Amr Hamzawy

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.