Balázs Jarábik
{
"authors": [
"Balázs Jarábik"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Eastern Europe",
"Ukraine"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}Source: Getty
All (Ukrainian) Politics Are Local
Weeks ago, after heavy fighting in the southern city of Mariupol, local leaders brokered an agreement without the participation of Kyiv-based or regional authorities. Kyiv should move toward a new power-sharing deal or face more Mariupol-type solutions.
Ukraine demonstrated unity by voting overwhelmingly for Petro Poroshenko in every region as the country’s new president, but, at the same time, two local elections showed a different picture. Under the surface of the unifying outcome of the presidential vote on May 25, Ukraine’s messy yet competitive politics merit close scrutiny.
Consider the results of voting for the Kyiv city council and the Odessa mayoral race, both of which were fiercely contested in (very) different contexts.
In Odessa, exit polls and the actual results turned out to be significantly different. The city’s former mayor, Eduard Gurvitz was defeated by Gennadij Truhanov, a member of the Batkivschina (Fatherland) party with, shall we say, a dubious reputation. Gurvitz is widely believed to have enjoyed support from the Euromaidan movement, but, after the tragic events of May 2 in which dozens died in street clashes and a deadly fire, that support may have cost him a shot at returning to his old job. At the same time, Truhanov’s success suggests that players from pre-Maidan Ukraine such as Batkivschina are willing to go as far as teaming up with (local) “bad boys” to ensure its own survival.
Neither Poroshenko nor Klitschko should see the results in Kyiv as the product of their alliance. Rather, it’s a reflection of the circumstances in which Ukraine and its voters found itself after Viktor Yanukovych fled the country. The historical task for both of them is to build deeper alliances, both at the national and local levels. These local elections demonstrated the importance of holding parliamentary elections—and help explain why scheduling them has proven so difficult. Given the public’s desire to break the monopoly on political life exercised by Yanuvovych-era parties, changing the electoral system to a proportional scheme with open lists and preferential voting—a step advocated by Maidan’s civic enablers—would infuse new blood into Ukraine’s dysfunctional politics. This would also help to address the structural challenges of devolution of central authority and strengthening of self-government. Last but not least, it would let President Poroshenko focus on reform of the key (and weakest) aspect of central government, the law enforcement agencies, a task which fits into his responsibility to handle foreign and defense policy under the current constitution. One suspects that Poroshenko’s actions in this area could easily take on authoritarian trappings, based on his post-Orange track record using his position as head of National Security Council for his own interest.
Ukraine, both East and West, expects Kyiv to pursue further political devolution. Poroshenko is likely to be wary of the phenomenon following the emergence of the so-called Mariupol memorandum on May 16. Just after botched military attempts to take on separatists in the city, local stakeholders, including businesses, law enforcement, and some of the separatists themselves, signed an agreement that allowed peace to return to the city. Remarkably, neither the central authorities nor the region’s governor were among the signatories.
Kyiv will either lead a devolution of its power to regional authorities or its authority will continue to erode in the face of locally generated solutions.
About the Author
Political analyst, former Slovak diplomat, and consultant specializing in Eastern Europe
- Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?Commentary
- Moldova’s Ruling Party PAS Must Graduate From Crisis Management to State GovernanceCommentary
Balázs Jarábik
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Russia Is Approaching a Political CrossroadsCommentary
Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart.
Tatiana Stanovaya
- Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?Commentary
Ultimately, Zelensky sided neither with the reform camp nor with the military establishment as such, but with political control.
Balázs Jarábik
- Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy NowCommentary
Trump is distracted and Ukraine wants Europe to step up. The continent’s leaders must find their voice and assert it in talks with Russia.
Alissa de Carbonnel
- Where Are President Tokayev’s Political Reforms Leading Kazakhstan?Commentary
Tokayev’s predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, outlined arrangements for a power transition too soon and in too much detail, ultimately losing control over the process. Tokayev is determined not to meet the same fate.
Temur Umarov
- Why Russia Could Escalate Hybrid Warfare Against EuropeCommentary
Mounting economic strain and battlefield losses will not necessarily make the Kremlin less dangerous. They could instead push Moscow toward a more aggressive hybrid campaign designed to test NATO’s Eastern flank, exploit allied hesitation, and fracture European resolve.
Maksym Beznosiuk