Commentary
Marc Pierini
{
"authors": [
"Marc Pierini"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [
"Turkey’s Transformation",
"Transatlantic Cooperation",
"Europe’s Southern Neighborhood"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
"programAffiliation": "EP",
"programs": [
"Europe"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Europe",
"North America",
"Türkiye",
"Levant",
"United States",
"Syria",
"Iran"
],
"topics": [
"Security"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Trump Threat Likely to Alienate Turkey, Weaken U.S. Leverage in Syria
President Trump’s vow to “devastate” the Turkish economy if Ankara attacks Kurdish forces in Syria marks another troubling development in the souring U.S.-Turkey relationship.
By Marc Pierini
Published on Jan 15, 2019
Source: Axios
President Trump redefined his Syria policy in a volley of tweets Sunday, threatening to "devastate Turkey economically" if it attacks Kurds in Syria. At issue is Ankara’s longstanding objection to the U.S. alliance with the Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG), who have proven to be Washington's most reliable and efficient allies in Syria’s northeast in the fight against ISIS.
Why it matters: Trump's proclamation marks another troubling development in the souring U.S.–Turkey relationship, one that may further fuel anti-American sentiments in Turkey.
While unexpectedly threatening Turkey with economic retaliation, Trump yielded to Ankara’s longstanding request for a safe zone, a 20-mile-wide strip of land that will prevent Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG) from coming into direct contact with Kurdish insurgents in Turkey (PKK), whom Turkey sees as a single, integrated operation straddling the border. Trump further intimated that the U.S. will act to prevent any provocation by Syrian Kurds with Turkey.
With respect to the Syrian Kurds, who have been fighting for their survival against ISIS' onslaught and for the recognition of their cultural and political identity by Damascus, Trump's new proclamation means they will be left alone with only a vague promise of U.S. air support from air bases outside Syria.
- Consequently, Syrian Kurds will get even closer to the Assad regime than they already were, hoping to ensure their own survival by earning Moscow’s support and to obtain some significant degree of autonomy (which is less probable).
- Meanwhile, Russia and Iran — supposedly U.S. enemies — will have an easier job helping Damascus retake control of all borders to the north, probably at Turkey’s expense.
What to watch: The U.S. will now have a weaker hand in the as-yet-unscheduled negotiations in the UN framework for the future constitutional arrangements in Syria, as the U.S. (and French) withdrawal will leave Russia and Iran as the only foreign powers on Syrian territory. This will in turn reinforce Assad’s position, while Turkey’s anti-Assad stance is neutralized by its political alliance with Moscow and Tehran.
About the Author
Marc Pierini
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Pierini is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on developments in the Middle East and Turkey from a European perspective.
- The Iran War’s Dangerous Fallout for Europe
- Unpacking Trump’s National Security StrategyOther
- +18
James M. Acton, Saskia Brechenmacher, Cecily Brewer, …
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Europe Is Falling Behind in General-Purpose Robotics. Here’s What It Can Do to Catch Up.Commentary
The continent needs to improve conditions for production of complete AI robotic systems and preserve its edge in hardware.
Pavlo Zvenyhorodskyi
- Lukashenko’s Bromance With Trump Has a Sell-By DateCommentary
Lukashenko is willing to make big sacrifices for an invitation to Mar-a-Lago or the White House. He also knows that the clock is ticking: he must squeeze as much out of the Trump administration as he can before congressional elections in November leave Trump hamstrung or distracted.
Artyom Shraibman
- Can Mullin Revive FEMA?Commentary
Restoring competence and trust to the anemic, neglected disaster recovery agency is a matter of national security.
Sarah Labowitz, Debbra Goh
- Europe’s New Industrial Policy Can Learn From U.S. MistakesCommentary
Although the IAA often differs from the IRA, European policymakers can still take note of the U.S. act’s shortcomings.
Milo McBride
- Israel Strikes Hezbollah’s Muslim Brotherhood-Affiliated AlliesCommentary
The Jamaa al-Islamiyya is the local Lebanese dimension of a broader struggle involving rival regional powers.
Issam Kayssi
