• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Peter Kellner"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "EP",
  "programs": [
    "Europe"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "United States",
    "Iran"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media
Carnegie Europe

Joe Biden Is Ahead of Donald Trump Because He Isn’t Hillary Clinton

Former U.S. vice president Joe Biden is well placed to defeat U.S. President Donald Trump in November. But to do so, he must mobilize America’s clear anti-Trump majority to march behind his banner.

Link Copied
By Peter Kellner
Published on Aug 27, 2020
Program mobile hero image

Program

Europe

The Europe Program in Washington explores the political and security developments within Europe, transatlantic relations, and Europe’s global role. Working in coordination with Carnegie Europe in Brussels, the program brings together U.S. and European policymakers and experts on strategic issues facing Europe.

Learn More

Source: TheArticle

Joe Biden’s task seems obvious enough. He must win back a decent number of the long-term Democrats who backed Donald Trump four years ago. If he does that, he will become President. If he doesn’t, he will lose.

In fact, that’s not quite right. It is perfectly possible for Trump to retain all the support he secured in 2016 and Joe Biden to win. Indeed, Trump could add win one million — and conceivably two million — more votes than last time and still lose. As for Biden, it would obviously help to persuade last-time Trump supporters to switch sides; but it’s not necessary.

As we approach Labour Day and the unofficial start of the final, hectic race to election day, let’s crunch the numbers. For the contest is not as straightforward as it looks.

In 2016, Clinton won 48 per cent of the national vote, while Trump won 46 per cent. Six per cent voted for other candidates. This “other” block was well above the recent norm. In each of the three previous presidential elections, “other” candidates won less than two per cent of the vote between them. The latest polling evidence suggests that this year’s election will see the “other” total fall back again.

What does this mean for the Trump-Biden contest? Here are two assumptions:

Read Full Text

This article was originally published by TheArticle with the title “Trump vs Biden — what are the polls telling us?”

About the Author

Peter Kellner

Former Nonresident Scholar, Carnegie Europe

Kellner was a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his research focused on Brexit, populism, and electoral democracy.

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    The Moment of Truth for a UK-EU Reset

      Peter Kellner

  • Commentary
    The UK Braces for a Change of Direction

      Peter Kellner

Peter Kellner
Former Nonresident Scholar, Carnegie Europe
Peter Kellner
Political ReformNorth AmericaUnited StatesIran

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    There Is No Shortcut for Europe in Armenia

    Europe has an interest in supporting Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan as he tries to make peace with neighbors and loosen ties with Russia. But it is depersonalized support in the long term, not quickfire flash, that will win the day.

      Thomas de Waal

  • Article
    Governing AI in the Shadow of Giants: Korea’s Strategic Response to Great Power AI Competition

    In its version of an AI middle power strategy, Seoul is pursuing alignment with the United States not as an endpoint but as a strategy to build industrial and geopolitical leverage. Whether this balance holds remains an open question.

      Darcie Draudt-Véjares, Seungjoo Lee

  • Article
    The Iran War Shows the Limits of U.S. Power

    If Washington cannot adapt to the ongoing transformations of a multipolar world, its superiority will become a liability.

      Amr Hamzawy

  • Commentary
    Diwan
    Where is the Groundwork for Lebanon’s Negotiations With Israel?

    A prerequisite of serious talks is that the country’s leadership consolidates majority national support for such a process.

      Michael Young

  • Woman standing amid debris from buildings
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Trump’s National Security Decisionmaking Is Broken

    Here’s why—and what the next president needs to do to fix the process.

      Daniel C. Kurtzer, Aaron David Miller

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.