This ongoing stream of work explores a new era of competition between the United States, Russia, and China in the Middle East and North Africa. Militarily, economically, and diplomatically, these world powers, along with a number of traditional regional powers, seek to develop strong relations with and influence the policy of the Arab and non-Arab states of the region, and ultimately to turn this influence into a strategic advantage.
The agency of MENA states and nonstate actors and their multilayered interactions with the United States, China, Russia, and the EU have helped shape the complex outcomes of the great power competition.
Russia has largely inherited the Soviet Union’s Middle East foreign policy. China may be best positioned to take advantage of this historical relationship.
The multifaceted nature of Turkish-Russian relations is tied to Türkiye’s changing relations with the West and its strategic maneuvers for greater autonomy.
China and Russia face different trajectories in the Gulf. These trajectories will be shaped by prevailing strategic interests and influence, which are evolving and can shift abruptly.
A common adversary has brought these natural rivals together.
Russia’s outreach to the region has successfully exploited regimes’ frustrations with the West. Yet it has encountered difficulties in navigating the complex interrelations and rivalries.
By aligning with Russia occasionally, Egypt not only mitigates the impact of fluctuating U.S. support but also extracts concessions and benefits from both the United States and Russia.
Russia’s military intervention in Syria reflected a more assertive foreign policy. However, its ability to expand its influence to Lebanon and beyond has been restricted.
A string of coups across Africa since 2020 has allowed Moscow to strengthen its position on the continent, even as it funnels vast military and economic resources into the war in Ukraine.
Experts analyze critical issues on what happens after the fighting abates, from global points of view.
The deficiencies of Washington’s bloc-based, security-centric approach in the Middle East have long been apparent. With the rise of China and the region’s growing search for multiple partners, the need to revise this strategy has become urgent.
Since 2011, the Arab world has undergone massive upheavals—geopolitical shifts, climate shocks, mounting economic pressures, and authoritarian restructuring, to name a few. Dynamic responses from governments and citizens are laying the shape of the next decade.
