• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
Democracy
  • Donate
REQUIRED IMAGE

REQUIRED IMAGE

Paper

Is Gradualism Possible? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East

Link Copied
By Thomas Carothers
Published on Jun 12, 2003

Additional Links

Full Text (PDF)
Program mobile hero image

Program

Democracy, Conflict, and Governance

The Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program is a leading source of independent policy research, writing, and outreach on global democracy, conflict, and governance. It analyzes and seeks to improve international efforts to reduce democratic backsliding, mitigate conflict and violence, overcome political polarization, promote gender equality, and advance pro-democratic uses of new technologies.

Learn More

Source: Carnegie

Summary
As part of the changed U.S. geostrategic outlook arising from the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States, the Bush administration is giving greatly heightened attention to the issue of promoting democracy in the Middle East. Although a policy of coercive regime change has been applied in Iraq, the administration has pursued a more gradualist model of political change in most of the region.

There is still little consensus among U.S. policy makers regarding the best approach for implementing democracy. This working paper assesses three competing strategies that have emerged within the growing domain of gradualist pro-democratic policies and programs.

Click on link above for full text of this Carnegie Paper.

This is the third in a series of working papers that will frame key issues relating to democracy promotion policies and programs in the Middle East. Also in the series:
Liberalization Versus Democracy: Understanding Arab Political Reform, by Daniel Brumberg
Promoting Democracy in the Middle East: The Problem of U.S. Credibility, by Marina Ottaway

About the Author
Thomas Carothers
, senior associate at the Carengie Endowment, is the founder and director of the Endowment's Democracy and Rule of Law Project. He is the author of several books on democracy promotion, including Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, and a coauthor of Democratic Mirage in the Middle East (Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief No. 20).

Available only online.

Thomas Carothers
Harvey V. Fineberg Chair for Democracy Studies; Director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program
Thomas Carothers
IranIraqPolitical ReformDemocracySecurity

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    For Putin, Increasing Russia’s Nuclear Threat Matters More Than the Triad’s Modernization

    For Putin, upgrading Russia’s nuclear forces was a secondary goal. The main aim was to gain an advantage over the West, including by strengthening the nuclear threat on all fronts. That made growth in missile arsenals and a new arms race inevitable.

      Maxim Starchak

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europolis, Where Europe Ends

    A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outward. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.

      Thomas de Waal

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Japan’s “Militarist Turn” and What It Means for Russia

    For a real example of political forces engaged in the militarization of society, the Russian leadership might consider looking closer to home.

      James D.J. Brown

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Why Is Ukraine Extending a Hand to the Belarusian Opposition-in-Exile?

    The risk posed by Lukashenko today looks very different to how it did in 2022. The threat of the Belarusian army entering the war appears increasingly illusory, while Ukraine’s ability to attack any point in Belarus with drones gives Kyiv confidence.

      Artyom Shraibman

  • The Political Integration of Armed Groups in a Changing Global Security Landscape: Implications for Sustainable Peace
    Research
    The Political Integration of Armed Groups in a Changing Global Security Landscape: Implications for Sustainable Peace

    One of the trickiest challenges to peacebuilding is transforming former combatants, including rebels, into legitimate political actors. Four factors that shape prospects for postwar integration

      Gyda Sindre

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600Fax: 202 483 1840
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.