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Paper

Is Gradualism Possible? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East

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By Thomas Carothers
Published on Jun 12, 2003

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Democracy, Conflict, and Governance

The Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program is a leading source of independent policy research, writing, and outreach on global democracy, conflict, and governance. It analyzes and seeks to improve international efforts to reduce democratic backsliding, mitigate conflict and violence, overcome political polarization, promote gender equality, and advance pro-democratic uses of new technologies.

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Summary
As part of the changed U.S. geostrategic outlook arising from the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against the United States, the Bush administration is giving greatly heightened attention to the issue of promoting democracy in the Middle East. Although a policy of coercive regime change has been applied in Iraq, the administration has pursued a more gradualist model of political change in most of the region.

There is still little consensus among U.S. policy makers regarding the best approach for implementing democracy. This working paper assesses three competing strategies that have emerged within the growing domain of gradualist pro-democratic policies and programs.

Click on link above for full text of this Carnegie Paper.

This is the third in a series of working papers that will frame key issues relating to democracy promotion policies and programs in the Middle East. Also in the series:
Liberalization Versus Democracy: Understanding Arab Political Reform, by Daniel Brumberg
Promoting Democracy in the Middle East: The Problem of U.S. Credibility, by Marina Ottaway

About the Author
Thomas Carothers
, senior associate at the Carengie Endowment, is the founder and director of the Endowment's Democracy and Rule of Law Project. He is the author of several books on democracy promotion, including Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, and a coauthor of Democratic Mirage in the Middle East (Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief No. 20).

Available only online.

About the Author

Thomas Carothers

Harvey V. Fineberg Chair for Democracy Studies; Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Thomas Carothers, a senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, is a leading expert on comparative democratization and international support for democracy.

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Thomas Carothers
Harvey V. Fineberg Chair for Democracy Studies; Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program
Thomas Carothers

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Full Text (PDF)
IranIraqPolitical ReformDemocracySecurity

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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