Europe has been a systemic anchor of world order since ancient times. It has shaped every major era of history including the Middle Ages, the modern inter-state system, colonization, and the Cold War. To retain its worldwide significance in the coming decades, Europe will need to ensure that its external strategy is a global one.
The U.S. National Intelligence Council has already conceded Europe’s success. Its Global Trends 2020 report states that "Europe’s strength could be in providing a model of global and regional governance to the rising powers….The EU, rather than NATO, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role which Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it."
If stability and prosperity go hand in hand, then Europe must not lose sight of the long-term drivers of both: widening and deepening. A consistent and collective commitment to both has been and continues to be essential for Europe’s long-term success. There are numerous internal scenarios which portray a European stability and prosperity threatened by uneven fiscal fundamentals between the core and periphery, varying abilities to integrate immigrants and manage social unrest, and coping with the challenge of aging populations. But European leaders cannot let internal economic obstacles overwhelm the imperative of building a long-term basis for growth and influence on the world stage.
Even in a period of slow economic growth and delayed structural reforms, externally oriented policies are key to maintaining momentum for the European Union as a whole. For example, European industrial firms are currently successfully signing large long-term engineering and infrastructure contracts in the fast-growing economies of the Persian Gulf region and Asia. This generates high-skilled jobs on the continent as well as sizeable profits. Aggressive commercial expansion is therefore fundamental to a strong Europe.
Related to this, European governments could also consider policy interventions to shore up European economic productivity. Given Europe’s vital role as a capital exporter, creating incentives for European multinationals to “ buy European” might provide an important spark for job creation—while reminding America and China how important Europe is for their own economic trajectories. Both approaches are vital to enhancing Europe’s global competitiveness.
Europe’s investments close to home have been crucial to Europe’s successful expansion politically and economically and must continue even as the common European house grows. As new European members secured market access, participation in the Schengen zone, official cohesion funds and subsidies, and improved credibility among creditors and investors, they quickly became the fastest growing nations in Europe until the onset of the financial crisis began in 2008. But the lessons from the recent crisis are that EU member states—new and old—have become interdependent and must support each other for collective gain.
It may seem ironic to advocate taking on ever more burdens through continued expansion of the EU, but bear in mind that calculations of global power frequently hinge on demographic size and economic growth—hence some such lists tend to leave off Europe entirely while focusing on China and India. This is their mistake—and Europe’s for not acting as one and investing in future growth. An EU that deepens ties with and eventually comes to include Ukraine and Turkey will add close to 150 million largely young, educated, and industrious citizens to its labor force, while simultaneously deepening its access to the markets and resources of the Near East and Russia. Deeper economic engagement with North Africa will also bring a Mediterranean Union to fruition faster than political overtures, while also expanding the European sphere of influence. The dictum that must always lead European thinking is that “There is no Europe, only Europeanization.
To act as one Europe will mean consolidating legacy European seats in major international organizations such as the United Nations Security Council and International Monetary Fund. This recommendation, which has been widely uttered in recent years, has been met with resistance in the name of maintaining influence in such organizations. But this counter-argument is deeply flawed. First, the lack of reform renders such bodies illegitimate, meaning Western powers may eventually stand alone in them, ultimately influencing no one. Second, precisely because the EU lacks the combined strategic capabilities of coercion outside of its immediate theater, it very much relies on diplomatic maneuvering in representative multilateral organizations. Creating space in such bodies for new members thereby also creates more—not less—opportunities for Europe to influence their behavior.
Despite the setbacks the eurozone faces with the crises in Greece and Ireland, the “European Model” is still a global standard bearer on many levels. Europe continues to represent both the aspiration and reality of nearly universal healthcare provision, low income inequality, social democratic governance, and ecological sustainability. At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in 2010, both European and Chinese ministers conceded that their models must be oriented towards such goals in order to provide for their anxious populations.
In short, Europe has done quite a lot right ever since the formation and evolution of the EU. And it has done so not by calling itself a “soft power” or “civilian power,” but by matching means to ends shrewdly and skillfully. This is the true test of strategy.
Parag Khanna is a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation and author of The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order (2008) and How to Run the World: Charting a Course to the Next Renaissance (2011).
To reinvigorate debate over European foreign policy and Europe’s role in the world, Carnegie Europe is publishing a series of essays from leading policymakers, diplomats, experts, and journalists on Strategic Europe over the coming weeks. A new essay will appear every day.
