• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
From Inspiration to Aspiration: Turkey in the New Middle East

Source: Getty

Paper
Carnegie Europe

From Inspiration to Aspiration: Turkey in the New Middle East

The Turkish model of governance can have a significant impact in the Arab world if it is presented in a nuanced, careful way—sector by sector and issue by issue rather than in any wholesale fashion.

Link Copied
By Sinan Ülgen
Published on Dec 6, 2011

Additional Links

Full TextExecutive Summary

With democratic change struggling to take root in the Arab world even after the fall of several autocratic regimes, the question naturally arises whether Turkey can serve as a model for those who hope to usher the region through the difficult transition to a more democratic order.

At first blush, there seem to be significant barriers to applying the Turkish model to the Arab context. For instance, the secularism so cherished by Turks was originally imposed on them using decidedly undemocratic means. Arab leaders who aspire to instill secularism in their countries under conditions of democratic opposition would face a much different challenge. Similarly, Turkey’s Western credentials—its EU candidacy and its membership in NATO and the Council of Europe—do not obviously apply in this situation. And the difficulties that the European Union has faced in developing an effective neighborhood policy for the southern Mediterranean region make clear that these ties are complicated.

There is no straight-line path to operationalizing the Turkish model in the Arab context. There are nonetheless several reasons to take the idea seriously.

To start with, Samuel Huntington pointed out the existence of a “demonstrative” effect, whereby the example of earlier transitions provided models for subsequent efforts at democratization that in turn provided models for other efforts, and so forth. In this sense, the “Turkish model” would apply to the Arab world not so much because of what Turkey does but because of what it is. The second point is the cultural affinity between Turkey and the countries in the region. In essence, the countries of the Middle East and North Africa find Turkey’s own experience more meaningful and see it as more relevant and transposable than the similar experiences of non-Muslim nations. The domestic transformation of Turkey, brought about over the past decade by a ruling party with roots in political Islam, can only enhance the effectiveness of such cultural affinity.

The Turkish model, therefore, can have significant impact in the Arab world if it is presented in a nuanced, careful way—sector by sector and issue by issue rather than in any wholesale fashion. Turkey’s experience can be brought to bear on a number of significant policy areas covering political reform, economic reform, and institution building. In all these areas, Turkey has a valuable role to play in supporting, sustaining, and consolidating democracy and state-building in the Arab world.

The onset of the Arab Awakening presents the world with an historic opportunity to launch the third great wave of transatlantic collaboration (following the reconstruction of Europe after 1945 and the re-integration of Eastern Europe after 1989). The distinguishing feature of this third wave will likely be Turkey’s active involvement, after playing only minor supporting roles in the first two waves.

Turkey’s role as a model for budding democracies also offers the country an opportunity to revitalize its partnership with the West. What better way to allay concerns over Turkey’s increasing foreign policy unilateralism than to induce Turkey to use existing multilateral platforms in a grand program of transformation throughout the Arab world? A Turkey acting in unison with the West to foster democracy and the rule of law in the Arab world would certainly provide the ultimate proof that the Turkish model is not only relevant to policy in the region but a lasting success story.

About the Author

Sinan Ülgen

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Sinan Ülgen is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on Turkish foreign policy, transatlantic relations, international trade, economic security, and digital policy.

    Recent Work

  • Paper
    From Trade Dependence to Geopolitical Leverage: The EU in an Era of Weaponized Interdependence

      Sinan Ülgen

  • Commentary
    The EU Equivocating on Turkey Is Bad Geopolitics

      Sinan Ülgen

Sinan Ülgen
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Sinan Ülgen
Middle EastEuropeTürkiyeEgyptLevantNorth AfricaSecurityPolitical Reform

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Commentary
    Diwan
    New Syria, Old Lebanon: Absence of the State

    Any move by the United States to make good on Trump’s suggestion that Washington persuade Damascus to confront Hezbollah militarily would have catastrophic consequences. 

      Kheder Khaddour

  • Turkish President and Leader of the Justice and Development (AK) Party Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends the AK Party Ankara Branch gathering at ATO Congresium in Ankara, Turkiye on June 22, 2026
    Paper
    The Dual Imperative in Turkish Foreign Policy: Right-Wing Populists and Their Opposition

    Turkish right-wing populists have been trying to advance the country’s middle-power goals based on perceptions of what the public wants, but they have been doing so in ways that reinforce their project of autocratic political consolidation.

      • Murat Somer

      Murat Somer

  • Aerial view of Yemeni refugee tents displaced by war
    Article
    In Yemen, Climate Finance Must Respond to Entrenched Instability

    The world’s climate adaptation funds must adapt to address the ways that climate change is deepening state fragility.

      Ray Salvatore Jennings, Paul Andrew Mayewski

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    The Trump-Shaped Hole in the European Security Strategy

    There is an elephant in the room when it comes to the EU’s upcoming security strategy: Donald Trump. Unless European leaders acknowledge the depth of the transatlantic crisis, true autonomy will remain out of reach.

      Stefan Lehne

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Simmering U.S.-Iran Conflict Is Moscow’s Ideal Outcome

    Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East allows Moscow to both increase its influence in Tehran and continue to enjoy the financial windfall of higher oil prices.

      Nikita Smagin

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.