Overview
Oman is predominantly arid, with most of its territory receiving less than 100 millimeters of rainfall annually. While some regions, such as the Dhofar Mountains, benefit from monsoonal rains, the majority of Oman is susceptible to high temperatures, prolonged droughts, and water scarcity. Climate models predict a temperature increase between 2°C and 4°C by 2050, coupled with irregular and reduced rainfall. These changes are expected to intensify the frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as cyclones, flash floods, and heatwaves. As a result, Oman faces growing challenges to sustainable development, particularly in water resource management, coastal protection, and food production, with rising sea levels threatening vital infrastructure in coastal cities like Muscat and Salalah.
Economically, Oman is a hydrocarbon-dependent state, with oil and gas revenues accounting for a large portion of government income and exports. Although the country has made strides toward economic diversification under its Vision 2040 plan, it remains exposed to global energy market fluctuations and the long-term decline in fossil fuel demand driven by global decarbonization efforts. Oman’s greenhouse gas emissions are relatively moderate on a global scale but high per capita because of its energy-intensive sectors. Agriculture, though contributing only slightly more than 2 percent to GDP, plays a vital role in rural livelihoods and food security. However, Oman’s agricultural sector is under strain due to water scarcity, increasing soil salinity, and desertification, all exacerbated by climate change. Irrigation remains heavily reliant on overdrawn groundwater sources, including traditional aflaj systems, many of which are in decline. Additionally, limited renewable water availability (with Oman classified among the world’s most water-scarce countries) poses a critical barrier to agricultural resilience and economic diversification.
Oman’s population stands at around 5 million, with a large proportion of expatriate workers and a growing youth demographic. While the country has invested in education and healthcare, mainly through digitizing and sustainability initiatives under Vision 2040, economic opportunities for Omani nationals remain constrained by a limited private sector and a labor market still dominated by the public sector. Climate change is likely to exacerbate inequalities, particularly in rural and low-income coastal communities, where livelihoods depend on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and fisheries. Water and food insecurity, in combination with an increase in urban development plans that rely on water and energy, could heighten socioeconomic vulnerabilities. As urban areas expand, agricultural land and water allocations face increasing competition, which may intensify domestic food insecurity. Moreover, the impacts of rising sea levels and coastal erosion pose existential risks to low-lying coastal communities and infrastructure, including desalination plants that provide much of Oman’s potable water.
Politically, Oman has remained one of the most stable countries in the region, maintaining a neutral and pragmatic foreign policy while avoiding the large-scale unrest seen elsewhere in the Arab world. Following the transition of power from Sultan Qaboos to Sultan Haitham bin Tariq in 2020, Oman has continued to implement reforms aimed at fiscal sustainability and administrative modernization. However, the country faces growing fiscal pressures, public debt, and social expectations, particularly among youth seeking employment and better public services. While Oman has a relatively cohesive society and a strong tradition of consensus-building, climate change could strain the existing social contract if resource shortages and economic stagnation persist. Water and food insecurity, combined with slow progress in economic diversification, may create new political pressures, especially in the absence of more inclusive governance, transparency, and effective local service delivery.
Confronting Climate Challenges: Oman’s Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
Situated in the southeastern part of the Arabian Peninsula with land borders to the west and a coastline to the east, Oman has a climate characterized by aridity and hot temperatures. Climate change has made the country susceptible to environmental vulnerabilities, with an increase in the mean annual temperature that triggers acute recurrent heatwaves, negatively affecting the gas-fired power plants that rely on ambient temperatures for effective electricity generation. Deemed one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, Oman is vulnerable to fluctuations in precipitation patterns; low annual rainfall jeopardizes the availability of freshwater, and heavy annual rainfall causes flooding that is harmful to Oman’s power infrastructure. The increase in frequently intense tropical cyclones from the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean is dangerous for the resilience of the country’s energy supply infrastructure. Its coast—home to much of Oman’s economic activity, infrastructure, and population—is not safe from potential sea level rise, with saltwater intrusion affecting available freshwater in coastal areas that are home to 56 percent of irrigated lands.
Unlike its neighboring countries and fellow members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Oman was able to shift the focus of its economy from oil and gas, once the sector with the largest share of GDP, toward the services and industry sectors. As of 2016, the oil and gas sector constituted 27.4 percent of the country’s GDP, while the services sector accounted for 53.5 percent and industry for 20.1 percent, which represented a significant shift from 47.6 percent, 42 percent, and 8.4 percent respectively in 2000. The Omani economy is essentially carbon-intensive. While there was a slight decrease in carbon intensity during the period from 1994 to 2015, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continued to grow at an average annual rate of 10 percent, outpacing population growth. This made Oman the seventh highest emitter of GHGs in the region and the forty-fifth highest in the world as of 2022, when the country produced 74.92 metric tons of CO2, accounting for 0.2 percent of global CO2 emissions from combustible fuels.
Oman’s environmental strategies are steered by five key documents: its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), its Vision 2040 plan, its National Strategy for Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change (2020–2040), its National Strategy for an Orderly Transition to Net Zero, and its Green Hydrogen Strategy. The country is still developing its National Adaptation Plans with the support of the Green Climate Fund.
Oman’s updated NDC puts forward a higher target for the reduction of net GHG emissions than the country’s first NDC. The new target strives to reduce emissions by a total of 21 percent from the business-as-usual scenario in 2030 (with 7 percent committed and 14 percent conditional), compared to 7 percent in total for the Omani government’s previous NDC target, and 2 percent for its 2015 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. The new target is contingent upon international climate financing, the activation of Article 6 in the Paris Agreement, technology transfers, and support for capacity-building programs. Moreover, the approach that Oman would need to adopt to achieve this target requires executing energy efficiency measures and adopting green electrification technologies. The revised NDC incorporates climate actions that focus on unlocking the country’s economic diversification prospects through renewable energy, efficient transportation, sustainable construction, responsible water use, and waste management.
Oman’s NDC and its National Strategy for Adaptation Mitigation to Climate Change, as well as its net zero strategy, primarily focus on the following five sectors, given their sensitivity to climate adaptation as well as their low-carbon and climate resilient potential: water resources; agriculture, marine biodiversity, and fisheries; urban areas; public health; and tourism and infrastructure.
The National Strategy for Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change primarily aims to identify the necessary strategic actions for climate change adaptation and mitigation. It revolves around five main objectives that follow three themes (climate science, vulnerability and adaptation, and greenhouse gas mitigation):
- Promote institutional capacity to effectively address climate change challenges;
- Raise awareness of climate change across relevant public and private sector groups;
- Conduct systemic climate research for better access to data on the strategy’s three themes;
- Coordinate action across agencies through sector-specific policies developed with an integrated-management approach; and
- Promote strategic research and cooperation opportunities through the development of national and international networks.
The fourth pillar of Oman’s Vision 2040 focuses on achieving a sustainable environment—a gradual transition toward a sustainable green and circular low-carbon economy through development of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency actions.
Budget
This budgetary assessment acknowledges Oman’s ongoing commitment to economic diversification under Vision 2040, which is essential for strengthening climate resilience amid fiscal consolidation and energy transition goals. Responsible authorities include the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Water Resources; the Environment Authority; the Ministry of Transport, Communications, and Information Technology; and the Ministry of Energy and Minerals. Spending in water and agriculture consistently made up the largest climate-related share of Oman’s federal budgets from 2016 to 2024. But Oman has also expanded investment in transport infrastructure and maintained sizable subsidies for electricity and water. In 2025, electricity subsidies rose to 520 million rials ($1.352 billion, a 13 percent increase from 2024), while water and sanitation received 194 million rials ($504.4 million), reflecting Oman’s continued prioritization of utility affordability.
On the other hand, ministries directly responsible for climate mitigation—like the Environment Authority, previously known as the Ministry of Environment and Climate Affairs—continue to receive comparatively minimal public funding, pointing to evidence of reliance on international funding mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund for climate measures. Despite these limitations, since Oman’s tropical cyclone disaster in 2022, the country’s National Fund for Emergencies has introduced more protective fiscal risk measures to address climate-induced disasters. However, the limited fiscal space for climate-critical ministries, which remain siloed from ministerial counterparts also directly impacted by climate, restricts their operational capacity to implement long-term adaptation projects. This could hinder the effectiveness of water management, sustainable agriculture, and environmental protection in the face of escalating climate risks.
Database Analysis: Evaluating Oman’s Climate Governance Framework
Oman’s institutional tools—royal decrees, ministerial decisions, laws, and executive regulations—assessed in our database illustrate organizational tasks, implementation methods, policy planning, and mechanisms for stakeholder engagement primarily led by the Environment Authority; the Ministry of Energy and Minerals; and the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Water Resources. Our methods and criteria particularly examine how environmental impact and assessment studies are carried out to avoid mischievous practices in high-emitting sectors; the effectiveness of Oman’s management of water, energy, and minerals; financing climate strategies; capacity-building; and the consolidation of institutional capacities. The criteria we rely on in our climate governance assessment include the following components: political processes (transparency, accountability, and representation); capacity of actors (human capacity, financial capacity, and oversight); and institutional mandates (management and goals).
We determined that twenty-four out of twenty-nine institutional tools considered in the database align with the transparency and accountability parameters to meet the political processes standard outlined in our climate assessment methodology, which measures how clearly the stakeholder’s engagement and the policy that is being designed, developed, or executed are stated in a law, decree, decision, or regulation. Royal Decree No. 114/2001, Ministerial Decision No. 30/2010, and Royal Decree No. 29/2000 incorporate environmental planning, clean development mechanism projects, and protection of water resources into a clear goal of comprehensive development planning that achieves sustainable development on the national level and ensures the country’s transition toward environment-friendly techniques. Moreover, they establish transparency and a clear management structure by identifying the relevant national institutions to carry out specific responsibilities, as well as outlining cooperation with other relevant governmental institutions.
Our representation criterion is met by Oman’s commitment (per its National Strategy for Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change and its NDC) to adopt sector-specific policies developed with an integrated-management approach through cross-agency coordinated actions, including with civil society groups. Additionally, fifteen of the institutional tools assessed in our database contribute to good representation. However, it is worth mentioning that only two mandates in the database (Royal Decree No. 46/2009 and Royal Decree No. 48/2006) explicitly mention the involvement of nongovernmental actors (the private sector and farmers) in the policymaking process, with no explicit mention of civil society organizations.
Twenty-five of the institutional tools we analyzed showed sufficient oversight to fulfill our capacity criterion, such as by granting waste and water management licenses to private and holding companies and local authorities contingent upon the submission and approval of reports detailing environmental activities and records. For example, Ministerial Decision No. 18/1993 authorizes the Royal Oman Police to approve the license related to the transportation, collection, handling, storage, and disposal of hazardous waste outside the waste generator’s premises. Ministerial Decision No. 20/2016, which regulates climate affairs management, also stipulates the duty of licensees to provide annual reports on emissions, disclose the high-quality techniques that have been used in their climate-related activities, provide a plan for afforestation to absorb emissions, and use renewable energy and clean development tools in accordance with international best practices. Oman also integrates human and financial capacities into a few of its institutional tools through the promotion of awareness-raising and knowledge-sharing across all societal sectors about the environment. For instance, Ministerial Decision No. 151/2007 authorizes the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Water Resources to provide specified amounts of financial support and necessary supplies for capacity-building programs in agriculture. Similarly, Royal Decree No. 48/2006 authorizes the same ministry to provide support for the introduction of modern irrigation systems, as well as for the necessary supplies for agricultural training programs. Furthermore, Royal Decree No. 8/2011 on oil and gas stipulates that franchisees must—in cooperation with the Ministry of Energy and Minerals—hold annual training programs for citizens to ensure the employment of a national labor force instead of a foreign one. However, the country needs to incorporate more human and financial capacity-building into its institutional tools to ensure sustainability in its environmental planning for the severest effects of climate change.
Oman has also addressed mitigation and adaptation, as well as risk and vulnerability regarding environmental degradation, through its regulatory frameworks. For example, Ministerial Decision No. 290/2023 prohibits soil excavation or the establishment of certain institutions on agricultural lands that could come at the expense of food security, without ministerial approval. Ministerial Decision No. 20/2016 clearly outlines the necessity of reducing GHG emissions and protecting the ozone layer and goes on to lay out adaptation and mitigation measures such as developing climate guidelines and best practices, setting up tools to measure emissions, establishing and running networks and systems related to tracking emissions and climate change, and limiting emissions in accordance with the country’s international commitment. An environmental authorization to carry out a project, according to Royal Decree No. 114/2001, is to be given only if precautionary measures are taken by project owners, including submission of an assessment study demonstrating that their project is more environmentally beneficial than harmful. Royal Decree No. 115/2001 protects national water resources by making well owners adhere to health and environmental requirements outlined by the Environmental Authority, and requires a license to sell drinking water or establish a privately owned water network.
Though some of the frameworks assessed in our database point to a wider goal of achieving sustainable national development, none of Oman’s institutional mandates specifies a given timeline—short- or long-term—for proposed plans (we use “short-term” to refer to targets set to be achieved by 2030 and “long-term” for targets set to be achieved by 2060). A lack of short- and long-term timelines makes it harder to enforce the accountability measures assessed in this database in the event of any environmental violation or non-compliance cases. Oman needs joint efforts between governmental and nongovernmental actors to advance governance capacities to plan, implement, and enforce climate mitigation and adaptation mandates.
