The Syrian regime was presented with a golden opportunity in the wake of the deadly February 2023 earthquake. After the earthquake, sympathetic and influential Arab countries began to engage the government in Damascus—behind closed doors—in discussions about the potential for regional rapprochement.
It is becoming abundantly clear that the earthquake, which ravaged the south of Turkey and the northwestern parts of Syria, and devastated the lives of millions, is positively serving the Syrian regime in its attempt to evade international pressure. As a result of the immense damage, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who are key players in regional dynamics, have begun to ignore the decade-long sanctions that were imposed on Syria. Other countries are following suit. In February 2023, Bashar al-Assad made an official visit to the Sultanate of Oman for the first time in a decade. The actions of these Arab governments show their willingness to patch relations with the regime and help find a solution to Syria’s almost 12-year civil war.
This Arab initiative really began to take shape following the visit of a parliamentary delegation representing 8 Arab countries to Damascus. The delegation was headed by the Speaker of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, Muhammad Al-Halbousi, who recently headed the Union of Arab Parliaments. Prior to that, Assad received a call from the Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the first between the two, followed by a visit from the Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, and his Jordanian counterpart, Ayman Safadi.
Multiple Motives
There are two emerging arguments that explain the current Arab shift towards de-isolating Damascus. The first suggests that developing an initiative in Syria that revives direct negotiations between the Syrian opposition and the regime to write a new constitution will result in an end to the civil war. Saudi Arabia has held this view for a long time, as the kingdom sees it as the best means to launch parliamentary and presidential elections.
The second reflects the United Arab Emirates’ continued attempts to assist Bashar al-Assad and his regime after the initial defrosting of their relationship in 2011. On this occasion, the UAE is focused on getting the humanitarian aid needed following the earthquake. The UAE also envisions that these measures will help push forward a political solution that will reestablish Damascus among its Arab neighbors. These two arguments are reflective of the current shifting regional dynamics and alliances, especially given the recent Saudi-Iranian deal, which will undoubtedly affect Syria.
Paved Tracks
The past several years have witnessed numerous diplomatic attempts led by the UAE, Algeria, and Jordan, with Bahraini-Egyptian consent and Omani blessing, to reinstate the Syrian regime into the Arab League and turn the page on more than ten years of estrangement. These attempts, however, were consistently rejected by Saudi Arabia and Qatar which insisted on the necessity of adhering to solutions approved by the UN, especially Resolution No. 2254, which they considered to be a map for a solution in Syria.
Their position was also a reflection of the general Western attitude, led by the United States, which insisted on reminding the international community that the Syrian regime has committed human rights abuses against the Syrian people. However, the February earthquake seems to have altered this attitude and accelerated the rapprochement between the Syrian regime and many of its long-time nemeses, like Saudi Arabia, whose planes have landed at Damascus and Aleppo airports for the first time in nearly a decade.
The quake also changed the position of the UN which granted the Syrian regime unexpected legitimacy by insisting on obtaining Damascus’ approval before bringing aid to those affected. This decision allowed the al-Assad regime free reign over the fate of the hundreds who were trapped under the rubble and the thousands who were displaced because of the disaster. This position caused a wave of harsh criticism and strong accusations to be directed at the UN by Syrian opposition and other institutions concerned with human rights, especially after UN staff admitted to failing to deliver the much-needed aid.
Accelerated Movements
Syria’s reengagement in the region is on the fast track. Bashar al-Assad visited Moscow in mid-February 2023, to hold talks on the Damascus-Ankara reconciliation efforts sponsored by Moscow. His visit was followed by an announcement for a quadripartite meeting between Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Russia to discuss the prospects of an overall settlement of the situation in and around Syria. The proposed meeting was sanctioned by Tehran who sent its Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, to Damascus prior to the announcement. This accelerated flow of diplomatic movement to Syria was clearly meant to fast-track reconciliation in the region. The fact that Turkey and Syria have mended their relations and that Saudi Arabia and Iran have declared a truce, will definitely affect the actions of these countries towards the solution in Syria.
Following his three-day official visit to Moscow where he received a ceremonious welcome and held talks at the highest level, al-Assad landed in the UAE with his wife Asmaa in a visit intended to flaunt the recently attained Russian support for a deal that would push forward the Syrian return to Arab good graces.
At a Munich security forum, the Saudi Foreign Minister, Faisal bin Farhan, provided clear indications that the Saudi position towards Syria had changed. He stressed that the status quo in Syria is unsustainable and that any new approach will inevitably require dialogue with the Damascus government.
Challenges to Normalization
Attempts at normalization with al-Assad are coming from different directions to serve various needs and interests. But whether these attempts come from Riyadh or Ankara, they will be doomed to failure if they hinge on commitments that are too difficult to implement. For example, the Syrian regime has been hinting at a Turkish withdrawal from Syria and Saudi Arabia is demanding the limitation of Iran’s interference in the security of the region, particularly in Syria and Yemen. Both of these are major asks and could delay progress towards normalization with Syria.
However, the most challenging obstacle to normalization with the al-Assad regime is the veto that Washington keeps waving in the face of those who try to bring Syria back to the international stage. Unless regional players can convince Washington of the seriousness and necessity of such a step, Syria likely won’t be joining its Arab neighbors at the international table.
Taim Al-Haj is an investigative journalist and the author of in-depth reports on Syrian affairs. Follow him on Twitter: @taim_alhajj.
Note:
The article was written before nine Arab countries met in Jeddah on Friday, April 14 to discuss ending Syria’s diplomatic isolation, the Saudi Foreign Affairs Minister’s visit to Syria on April 18th, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s invitation to visit Saudi Arabia was extended.
