• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Karim Sadjadpour"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "MEP",
  "programs": [
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Middle East",
    "Iran",
    "Gulf"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security",
    "Political Reform",
    "Democracy",
    "Foreign Policy",
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media

Iranian Dissent, Global Crackdown

It remains to be seen how the Obama administration’s efforts at engagement with Iran will affect the domestic situation, as tensions grow between the opposition leadership’s calls for reform and the movement’s younger members, who are looking for a more fundamental change.

Link Copied
By Karim Sadjadpour
Published on Dec 21, 2009
Program mobile hero image

Program

Middle East

The Middle East Program in Washington combines in-depth regional knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to provide deeply informed recommendations. With expertise in the Gulf, North Africa, Iran, and Israel/Palestine, we examine crosscutting themes of political, economic, and social change in both English and Arabic.

Learn More

Source: On Point

In the weeks and months that have followed the June Presidential election, the opposition movement has increasingly questioned the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. However, there remains a gap in the worldview of the leadership of the opposition, such as Mir Hussein Mossavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and the young foot soldiers of the movement. Where the leadership is still dedicated to the idea of the Islamic Republic and is calling for reforms, younger opposition members are looking for a more fundamental change. Despite this difference, both groups recognize they need each other. It remains to be seen how far the opposition movement can go, given this gap between the expectations of the leadership and its younger members. 

The regime has dug in its heels as the opposition has become more vehement and daring. Karim Sadjadpour suggests that “the political elites of the regime have no where to go outside of Iran and therefore will not give up power without a fight.”  Ayatollah Khamenei learned from the Shah’s mistake of apologizing for past grievances, which opened the door for the Islamic revolution to overthrow the Shah in 1979. Accordingly, “Khamenei has created a zero-sum game”, notes Sadjadpour, where his regime will fight to the bitter end. 

The approach of the Obama administration with regards to engagement has unsettled the regime and created dissension among the political elites over how to respond to Obama’s overtures. The administration’s efforts at engagement have demonstrated that “the problems lie in Tehran, not in Washington,” according to Sadjadpour.

About the Author

Karim Sadjadpour

Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.

    Recent Work

  • Q&A
    What’s Keeping the Iranian Regime in Power—for Now

      Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour, Robin Wright

  • Q&A
    How Washington and Tehran Are Assessing Their Next Steps

      Aaron David Miller, David Petraeus, Karim Sadjadpour

Karim Sadjadpour
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Karim Sadjadpour
SecurityPolitical ReformDemocracyForeign PolicyNuclear PolicyMiddle EastIranGulf

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  •  A machine gun of a Houthi soldier mounted on a police vehicle next to a billboard depicting the U.S. president Donald Trump and Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, during a protest staged to show support to Iran against the U.S.-Israel war on March 27, 2026 in Sana'a, Yemen.
    Collection
    The Iran War’s Global Reach

    As the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran continues, Carnegie scholars contribute cutting-edge analysis on the events of the war and their wide-reaching implications. From the impact on Iran and its immediate neighbors to the responses from Gulf states to fuel and fertilizer shortages caused by the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the war is reshaping Middle East alliances and creating shockwaves around the world. Carnegie experts analyze it all.

  •  A machine gun of a Houthi soldier mounted on a police vehicle next to a billboard depicting the U.S. president Donald Trump and Mohammed Bin Salman, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, during a protest staged to show support to Iran against the U.S.-Israel war on March 27, 2026 in Sana'a, Yemen.
    Article
    Amid Iran War, Gulf Countries Slow the Pace of Reforms

    The return of war as the organizing factor in Middle Eastern politics has predictable consequences: governments are prioritizing regime stability and becoming averse to political and social reform.

      • Sarah Yerkes

      Sarah Yerkes, Amr Hamzawy

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Power, Pathways, and Policy: Grounding Central Asia’s Digital Ambitions

    Central Asia’s digital ambitions are achievable, but only if policy is aligned with the region’s physical constraints.

      Aruzhan Meirkhanova

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Can NATO Survive the Iran War?

    Donald Trump has repeatedly bashed NATO and European allies, threatening to annex Canada and Greenland and deploring their lack of enthusiasm for his war of choice in Iran. Is this latest round of abuse the final straw?

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz, ed.

  • A person faces away from the camera wearing a yellow jacket with "PRESS" printed across the back
    Paper
    The Impact of Ending U.S. International Media Assistance

    The future looks bleak for independent media worldwide, but there is a robust infrastructure of knowledge, organizations, and people to build upon.

      Daniel Sabet, Susan Abbott

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600Fax: 202 483 1840
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.