• Interpreting Information in China’s Stock Markets

    July 17, 2015

    Although China’s stock market panic in the summer of 2015 has subsided, the fundamental questions have not been resolved, which leaves it open to possible continued volatility.

  • Please, Mr. Lew, Do Not “Diminish” Alexander Hamilton

    June 21, 2015

    Why Alexander Hamilton should remain on the ten dollar bill.

  • Internal and External Balance

    June 09, 2015

    A deep grounding in economic and financial history is important for modern economic analysis.

  • What Multiple Should We Give China’s GDP Growth?

    May 17, 2015

    The value placed on current and future growth says a lot about the quality of that growth. It also has important policy implications, especially for reforms.

  • Will the AIIB One Day Matter?

    April 11, 2015

    For now, for all the excited chatter, the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank is an institution laden with symbolic value and little else.

  • When Do We Decide That Europe Must Restructure Much of Its Debt?

    February 25, 2015

    The biggest constraint to the EU’s survival is debt. Europe will not grow and unemployment will not drop until the costs of the excessive debt burdens are addressed.

  • Syriza and the French Indemnity of 1871-73

    February 04, 2015

    European nationalists have successfully convinced the world, against all logic, that the European crisis is a conflict among nations, and not among economic sectors.

  • Can Monetary Policy Turn Argentina Into Japan?

    February 01, 2015

    If the world does indeed face another decade or two of “superabundant capital” in spite of economic stagnation and slow growth, the historical precedents suggest a number of consequences.

  • Inverted Balance Sheets and Doubling the Financial Bet

    January 21, 2015

    Chinese economic growth will continue to slow. Although many economic analyses are based on the success of economic reforms, near-term growth is more accurately forecast in terms of balance sheet constraints.

  • On Chinese CPI and PPI Data for December

    January 09, 2015

    China’s consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data suggest that China is facing deflationary pressures. Beijing must tackle the country’s debt and create alternative sources of demand to address them.

  • My Reading of the FT on China’s “Turning Away from the Dollar”

    December 14, 2014

    Economists tend to undervalue institutional flexibility, especially in the first few years after a major financial crisis, perhaps because in the beginning countries that adjust very quickly tend to underperform countries that adjust more slowly.

  • How Might a China Slowdown Affect the World?

    December 02, 2014

    A slowing Chinese economy might be good or bad for the world, depending on domestic savings and domestic investment.

  • China, Europe, and Optimal Currency Zones

    November 05, 2014

    While China is a more integrated optimal currency zone than the EU, there are still frictional costs across provinces that will require Beijing to make some adjustments, which have their own costs.

  • Should Beijing Raise Subway Fares?

    October 29, 2014

    Considering what would be the best subway fare in Beijing is a useful way to think about infrastructure investment more generally.

  • How to Link Australian Iron With Marine Le Pen

    October 19, 2014

    China’s disproportionate demand for iron is the result of its investment-driven growth model. In considering how Chinese adjustment will affect Australia, one must consider global savings imbalances.

  • Are We Starting to See Why It’s Really the Exorbitant “Burden”

    October 05, 2014

    The role of the U.S. dollar as the world’s global reserve currency has been regarded as a great advantage to the United States but actually it is a destabilizing burden rather than an “exorbitant privilege.”

  • How Much Longer Can the Global Trading System Last?

    September 28, 2014

    The next few years could see a break-up of the current monetary and trading regime and a U.S. turn inward toward isolation.

  • “...Not With a Bang but a Whimper”

    September 14, 2014

    Policies that affect the savings rate of a small country can have more-or-less predictable domestic impacts because the global economy is so large that domestic policies are not affected by external constraints. But with a large economy, the analysis changes.

  • What Does a “Good” Chinese Adjustment Look Like?

    September 01, 2014

    Instead of a hard landing or a soft landing, the Chinese economy faces two very different options, and these will be largely determined by the policies Beijing chooses over the next two years.

  • Can Pedro Sanchez Save the PSOE?

    August 18, 2014

    If Pedro Sánchez Castejón hopes to lead Spain and his party out of its current economic crisis, he must recognize that the crisis is fundamentally a conflict between the interests of Europe’s bankers and of Europe’s workers.

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