• The IMF on Overinvestment in China

    December 28, 2012

    A new report suggests that even under optimistic scenarios, it will be very hard to maintain a high rate of investment in China. The challenge is to find a readjustment strategy that does not lead to a sharp drop in GDP growth.

  • What is Globalization?

    June 11, 2012

    A new worldwide monetary contraction could reverse many of the advances in globalization that the international community takes for granted.

  • Predictions for the Rest of the Decade

    August 29, 2011

    The current cycle of globalization could end in a painful period of debt adjustment and payment imbalances across the globe, with a likely slowdown of growth in China, a possible abandonment of the euro, and the risk of increasing U.S. protectionism.

  • Is Loan Growth in China Slowing?

    March 24, 2011

    Ineffectual loan quotas have led Chinese banks to devise new, riskier lending mechanisms. This trend will continue as long as China maintains its loose monetary and credit policies.

  • Chinese Stock Markets and European Politics

    February 10, 2011

    Chinese growth may continue at a rapid pace this year, but a growing liquidity-induced bubble will eventually require major reforms.

  • Currency Manipulation

    February 04, 2011

    Although an appreciation in China's currency value could benefit the United States in theory, Chinese leaders would likely counterbalance such a rise with policies that could further damage both the Chinese and U.S. economies.

  • Chinese Growth in 2011

    December 19, 2010

    Although China's growth next year is likely to remain high, expectations for China's average growth over the next decade are being revised downward.

  • The Rough Politics of European Adjustment

    November 30, 2010

    European economic adjustment will be both economically and politically painful, but Europe's financial crises will continue to recur until real fundamental rebalancing occurs.

  • Will Beijing Raise Interest Rates to Combat Inflation?

    November 24, 2010

    China's interest rate hikes are primarily intended to rebalance China's overheated investment sector, but they will likely have little effect on the country's rising inflation.

  • Will Europe Face Defaults?

    November 24, 2010

    Europe's debt crises are likely to worsen, requiring many European countries to implement difficult long-term economic and political adjustments to recover from their fiscal woes.

  • QE2 and the Titanic

    November 10, 2010

    Although the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent quantitative easing is a necessary step, it makes China even less likely to embrace Secretary Geithner's proposal to limit current account surpluses.

  • Will Trade Action Bring Back American Jobs?

    November 04, 2010

    An international agreement to limit current account surpluses would be a productive step toward global economic rebalancing, but in order to decrease its trade deficit, the United States must also enact domestic reform.

  • PBoC Rate Hike Announced

    October 19, 2010

    The Chinese central bank's decision to raise interest rates is a positive step toward economic rebalancing, but it needs to be followed up by larger rate hikes if China is to increase domestic consumption.

  • Xin Fa'an: A Modest Proposal to Resolve the Coming Trade War

    October 14, 2010

    In order to sustain economic growth during its transition toward a more balanced economy and help keep U.S. demand for Chinese exports high, Beijing should invest in the U.S. transportation infrastructure.

  • What Happens if the RMB Is Forced to Revalue?

    October 06, 2010

    China will likely expand access to cheap credit even as it revalues its currency in the coming months, counterbalancing the effects of revaluation and further exacerbating China's economic imbalances.

  • The Politics of Chinese Adjustment

    September 29, 2010

    Political concerns will dominate Beijing's economic decision-making as Chinese leaders seek a gradual adjustment that will balance competing constituencies.

  • Chinese Consumption and the Japanese "Sorpasso"

    August 10, 2010

    The only way to sustainably increase Chinese domestic consumption is to bolster the share of national income belonging to households by transitioning away from the Asian development model that led to Japan’s economic decline.

  • Do Sovereign Debt Ratios Matter?

    July 20, 2010

    There is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the current debt crisis, since there is no simple way to determine whether a country will default and the necessary major global adjustments have not yet taken place.

  • China: Where's the Inflation?

    June 15, 2010

    Rising inflation rates will likely trigger a decline in real interest rates, further decreasing the cost of capital and worsening the imbalance between China’s national GDP and average household income.

  • The Shanghai Market Isn’t Really Predicting Anything

    June 01, 2010

    Shanghai’s markets will go up and down, but they are not driven by investor evaluation of long-term growth prospects. China does not yet posses the tools to make such evaluation useful, so be careful about reading too much into the stock market numbers.

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