• What Happens if the RMB Is Forced to Revalue?

    October 06, 2010

    China will likely expand access to cheap credit even as it revalues its currency in the coming months, counterbalancing the effects of revaluation and further exacerbating China's economic imbalances.

  • The Politics of Chinese Adjustment

    September 29, 2010

    Political concerns will dominate Beijing's economic decision-making as Chinese leaders seek a gradual adjustment that will balance competing constituencies.

  • Chinese Consumption and the Japanese "Sorpasso"

    August 10, 2010

    The only way to sustainably increase Chinese domestic consumption is to bolster the share of national income belonging to households by transitioning away from the Asian development model that led to Japan’s economic decline.

  • Do Sovereign Debt Ratios Matter?

    July 20, 2010

    There is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the current debt crisis, since there is no simple way to determine whether a country will default and the necessary major global adjustments have not yet taken place.

  • China: Where's the Inflation?

    June 15, 2010

    Rising inflation rates will likely trigger a decline in real interest rates, further decreasing the cost of capital and worsening the imbalance between China’s national GDP and average household income.

  • The Shanghai Market Isn’t Really Predicting Anything

    June 01, 2010

    Shanghai’s markets will go up and down, but they are not driven by investor evaluation of long-term growth prospects. China does not yet posses the tools to make such evaluation useful, so be careful about reading too much into the stock market numbers.

  • Don't Misread the Trade Implications of the Euro Crisis for China

    May 19, 2010

    The Euro crisis, rather than reducing the urgency for China to revalue its currency and adjust its trade policy, may in fact require that China react much more aggressively than originally planned.

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