• China: Where's the Inflation?

    June 15, 2010

    Rising inflation rates will likely trigger a decline in real interest rates, further decreasing the cost of capital and worsening the imbalance between China’s national GDP and average household income.

  • The Shanghai Market Isn’t Really Predicting Anything

    June 01, 2010

    Shanghai’s markets will go up and down, but they are not driven by investor evaluation of long-term growth prospects. China does not yet posses the tools to make such evaluation useful, so be careful about reading too much into the stock market numbers.

  • Don't Misread the Trade Implications of the Euro Crisis for China

    May 19, 2010

    The Euro crisis, rather than reducing the urgency for China to revalue its currency and adjust its trade policy, may in fact require that China react much more aggressively than originally planned.

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