Thomas de Waal
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe


Tom de Waal is a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region.

He is the author of numerous publications, most recently The End of the Near Abroad (Carnegie Europe/IWM, 2024). The second edition of his book The Caucasus: An Introduction (Oxford University Press) was published in 2018. He is also the author of Great Catastrophe: Armenians and Turks in the Shadow of Genocide (Oxford University Press, 2015) and of the authoritative book on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War (NYU Press, second edition 2013).

From 2010 to 2015, de Waal worked for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. Before that he worked extensively as a journalist in both print and for BBC radio. From 1993 to 1997, he worked in Moscow for the Moscow Times, the Times of London, and the Economist, specializing in Russian politics and the situation in Chechnya. He co-authored (with Carlotta Gall) the book Chechnya: Calamity in the Caucasus (NYU Press, 1997), for which the authors were awarded the James Cameron Prize for Distinguished Reporting.

BA, Balliol College, University of Oxford
English, Russian

All work from Thomas de Waal

439 Results
Armenia Navigates a Path Away From Russia

A successful peace agreement with Azerbaijan would mean Armenia would have more options and would be able to lessen its historical dependence on Russia and pursue a stronger partnership with the West. A continuation of the status quo gives Russia more opportunities to reapply its traditional levers of control.  

· July 11, 2024
Arc of Instability: How to Survive as an “In-Between” European State

Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Carnegie Europe's director Rosa Balfour and senior fellow Tom de Waal to discuss Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia, which find themselves caught between Russia and the EU.

Between Russia and the EU: Europe’s Arc of Instability
June 25, 2024

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. This arc of instability spans from the South Caucasus through Moldova to the Western Balkans.

In The Media
in the media
Opportunistic Georgia Joins Europe’s Illiberal Club

Russia’s war on Ukraine is driving Georgia’s government toward closer alignment with Moscow and other illiberal states

· June 6, 2024
Financial Times
In The Media
in the media
Putin’s Hidden Game in the South Caucasus

Russia and like-minded South Caucasus leaders are reshaping alliances in the region, where competition for influence is raging.

· June 3, 2024
Foreign Affairs
Between Russia and the EU: Europe’s Arc of Instability

Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia are caught in between Russia and the EU, building ties with the latter even as the former seeks to maintain influence there and deter the West.

In The Media
in the media
Georgia's Foreign Agent Bill with Thomas de Waal

Georgia's foreign agent bill is a turning point for the state of democracy in the country and Tbilisi's relations with its partners.

· May 29, 2024
Lawfare Daily
In The Media
in the media
Georgian Nightmare

Georgia's self-mobilised citizenry is resisting a ruling party that seems intent on staying in power at all costs.

· May 21, 2024
Engelsberg Ideas
The End of the Near Abroad

Putin’s war on Ukraine marks the end of the near abroad—the idea that Russia enjoys a special status in much of the post-Soviet space. But while Russia’s neighbors are seeking greater independence, they are not necessarily turning West.

· May 16, 2024
Navigating Change in Russia’s Contested Neighborhood
May 21, 2024

Thirty years after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine marked a historical juncture for countries beyond Ukraine and Russia.