Podcast Episode
A U.S.-China war over Taiwan would be catastrophic for all sides and the world. Preventing such a war requires understanding how it might unfold—from start to finish—including worst-case scenarios.
Jon Bateman, Charles Hooper
Podcast Episode
How Will AI Export Policies Redefine U.S. Global Influence?
Sophia Besch sits down with Sam Winter-Levy to discuss how developments in AI and attempts to regulate them affect geopolitical strategy. They discuss the implications of the former Biden administration's new "Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion" and the nuances of Washington's approach to AI exports and advancement more broadly.
Published on Jan 30, 2025
China’s new AI model, DeepSeek, has rattled markets and raised questions about the global AI race. Meanwhile, just before leaving office, the Biden administration introduced the Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion—an ambitious new rule that could reshape how—and who—gets access to advanced AI technologies from the U.S. It is designed to regulate AI exports, strengthen partnerships with allies, and restrict adversaries’ access to advanced AI chips and models.
But with the Trump administration now in power, will this framework survive? The stakes are high: AI chips fuel cutting-edge technologies, and whoever controls them holds the keys to the future of advanced AI systems.
In this episode, Sophia Besch and Technology and International Affairs Fellow Sam Winter-Levy explore what Biden’s new AI framework aims to achieve, how DeepSeek might challenge U.S. AI dominance, and what we might expect from the Trump administration's with respect to AI exports. Will Washington double down on AI restrictions, or will Trump scrap Biden’s framework in favor of a new approach? And with China rapidly advancing, can the U.S. maintain its technological edge?
Notes:
- Sam Winter-Levy, "The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 13, 2024.
- Sam Winter-Levy, "With Its Latest Rule, the U.S. Tries to Govern AI’s Global Spread," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 13, 2025.
- Matt Sheehan and Sam Winter-Levy, "Chips, China, and a Lot of Money: The Factors Driving the DeepSeek AI Turmoil," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 28, 2025.
- Leopold Aschenbrenner, "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead," June 2024.
- Jeffrey Ding, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition, Princeton University Press (2024).
- Benjamín Labatut, When We Cease to Understand the World, Pushkin Press and New York Review of Books (2021).
Credits:
- Host: Sophia Besch
- Executive Producer/Audio Engineer: Heewon Park
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from The World Unpacked
- How a U.S.-China War Would Unfold
- In the New Middle East, No One Is In ChargePodcast Episode
Marwan Muasher—a former foreign minister of Jordan and now a VP at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace—joins The World Unpacked to make sense of a region in flux.
Jon Bateman, Marwan Muasher
- Is Silicon Valley Corrupting Stanford?Podcast Episode
Theo Baker is no ordinary college senior. His student newspaper articles brought down Stanford’s president. Now he’s written a book about the making of the young tech elite.
Jon Bateman, Theo Baker
- Putin Is Losing His Grip on RussiaPodcast Episode
Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Moscow insider who quit over the Ukraine War, says that Vladimir Putin has lost focus on running the country. She joins Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to explain the erosion of Russia’s social contract and share stories from her new book From Sovereigns to Servants: How the War Against Ukraine Reshaped Russia’s Elite.
Jon Bateman, Alexandra Prokopenko
- What to Know Before Trump Attacks CubaPodcast Episode
Javier Corrales and host Jon Bateman discuss Cuba’s economic vulnerability, its political staying power, and why Trump might wind up making a deal with the Castros very similar to one made by Barack Obama.
Jon Bateman, Javier Corrales
