Podcast Episode
Brian Merchant on the Industrial Revolution’s failures, how AI undercuts workers, and the social order of technology.
Jon Bateman, Brian Merchant
Podcast Episode
How Will AI Export Policies Redefine U.S. Global Influence?
Sophia Besch sits down with Sam Winter-Levy to discuss how developments in AI and attempts to regulate them affect geopolitical strategy. They discuss the implications of the former Biden administration's new "Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion" and the nuances of Washington's approach to AI exports and advancement more broadly.
Published on Jan 30, 2025
China’s new AI model, DeepSeek, has rattled markets and raised questions about the global AI race. Meanwhile, just before leaving office, the Biden administration introduced the Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion—an ambitious new rule that could reshape how—and who—gets access to advanced AI technologies from the U.S. It is designed to regulate AI exports, strengthen partnerships with allies, and restrict adversaries’ access to advanced AI chips and models.
But with the Trump administration now in power, will this framework survive? The stakes are high: AI chips fuel cutting-edge technologies, and whoever controls them holds the keys to the future of advanced AI systems.
In this episode, Sophia Besch and Technology and International Affairs Fellow Sam Winter-Levy explore what Biden’s new AI framework aims to achieve, how DeepSeek might challenge U.S. AI dominance, and what we might expect from the Trump administration's with respect to AI exports. Will Washington double down on AI restrictions, or will Trump scrap Biden’s framework in favor of a new approach? And with China rapidly advancing, can the U.S. maintain its technological edge?
Notes:
- Sam Winter-Levy, "The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 13, 2024.
- Sam Winter-Levy, "With Its Latest Rule, the U.S. Tries to Govern AI’s Global Spread," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 13, 2025.
- Matt Sheehan and Sam Winter-Levy, "Chips, China, and a Lot of Money: The Factors Driving the DeepSeek AI Turmoil," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 28, 2025.
- Leopold Aschenbrenner, "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead," June 2024.
- Jeffrey Ding, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition, Princeton University Press (2024).
- Benjamín Labatut, When We Cease to Understand the World, Pushkin Press and New York Review of Books (2021).
Credits:
- Host: Sophia Besch
- Executive Producer/Audio Engineer: Heewon Park
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from The World Unpacked
- A Luddite’s Guide to the AI Economy
- Data Centers Are Fine, ActuallyPodcast Episode
The missing context that shows how AI isn’t the resource hog everyone thinks it is – with Andy Masley.
Jon Bateman, Andy Masley
- How Europe Fights Russia Without the U.S.Podcast Episode
Sophia Besch games out NATO’s future, Baltic scenarios, German rearmament, and Europe’s next way of war.
Jon Bateman, Sophia Besch
- Iran Will Probably Still Get Nukes – Here’s HowPodcast Episode
James Acton gives 50% odds of an Iranian nuke in 3 years and tells U.S. negotiators what to prioritize.
Jon Bateman, James M. Acton
- How a U.S.-China War Would UnfoldPodcast Episode
A U.S.-China war over Taiwan would be catastrophic for all sides and the world. Preventing such a war requires understanding how it might unfold—from start to finish—including worst-case scenarios.
Jon Bateman, Charles Hooper
