Iran's Power in Context

{
  "authors": [
    "Shahram Chubin"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "NPP",
  "programs": [
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Middle East",
    "Iran"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Security",
    "Foreign Policy",
    "Nuclear Policy",
    "Nuclear Energy"
  ]
}

In The Media

Iran's Power in Context

Depicting Iran as a military threat obscures the real political threat it poses in the Middle East. It is precisely Iran's political behaviour and goals that underlay concerns about its nuclear ambitions.

By Shahram Chubin

Published on Feb 1, 2009

Source: Survival

Iran-US relations – strained at the best of times since the 1979 Iranian revolution – have never been worse than during the past six years, due to the much more intense interaction between the two states since the revelations about Iran's nuclear ambitions and the United States' invasion of Iraq. The United States sees Iran as a potential strategic rival, while Tehran views the American presence in the Middle East as a potential existential threat. This has led to zero-sum thinking and has raised the stakes correspondingly. In the process there has been an inflation of the Iranian threat, which is poorly understood and often exaggerated. Depicting Iran as a military threat obscures the real political threat the country poses to its region; Iran's regional behaviour has been neglected and overshadowed by the contentious nuclear issue. However, it is precisely Iran's behaviour and goals which feed concerns about its nuclear ambitions.

About the Author

Shahram Chubin

Former Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Chubin, who is based in Geneva, focuses his research on nonproliferation, terrorism, and Middle East security issues. He was director of studies at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Switzerland, from 1996 to 2009.

Recent Work

In The Media
Iran and the P5+1 in Moscow: Time is Running Out (Again)
- Shahram Chubin
In The Media
The Revolution in Cairo is a Serious Warning for the Mullahs
- Shahram Chubin

Security Foreign Policy Nuclear Policy Nuclear Energy Middle East Iran

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary
Southeast Asia’s Agency Amid the New Oil Crisis
There is no better time for the countries of Southeast Asia to reconsider their energy security than during this latest crisis.
Gita Wirjawan
Commentary
Fuel Crisis Forces Politically Perilous Trade-Offs in Indonesia
As conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel costs across Asia, Indonesia faces difficult policy trade-offs over subsidies, inflation, and fiscal credibility. President Prabowo’s personalized governance style may make these hard choices even harder to navigate.
Sana Jaffrey
Commentary
Europe Doesn’t Like War—for Good Reasons
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are existential threats to Europe as a peace project. Leaders and citizens alike must reaffirm their solidarity to face up to today’s multifaceted challenges.
Marc Pierini
Commentary
Emissary
In Its Iran War Debate, Washington Has Lost the Plot in Asia
The United States ignores the region’s lived experience—and the tough political and social trade-offs the war has produced—at its peril.
Evan A. Feigenbaum
Article
The Changing Military Balance in the Black Sea: A Ukrainian Perspective
Ukraine’s asymmetric approach has rendered Russia’s Black Sea Fleet functionally useless. But a long-term commitment will be needed to maintain this balance of power.
Alina Frolova, Stepan Yakymiak

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary

Southeast Asia’s Agency Amid the New Oil Crisis

There is no better time for the countries of Southeast Asia to reconsider their energy security than during this latest crisis.

Gita Wirjawan

Commentary

Fuel Crisis Forces Politically Perilous Trade-Offs in Indonesia

As conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel costs across Asia, Indonesia faces difficult policy trade-offs over subsidies, inflation, and fiscal credibility. President Prabowo’s personalized governance style may make these hard choices even harder to navigate.

Sana Jaffrey

Commentary

Europe Doesn’t Like War—for Good Reasons

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are existential threats to Europe as a peace project. Leaders and citizens alike must reaffirm their solidarity to face up to today’s multifaceted challenges.

Marc Pierini

Commentary

Emissary

In Its Iran War Debate, Washington Has Lost the Plot in Asia

The United States ignores the region’s lived experience—and the tough political and social trade-offs the war has produced—at its peril.

Evan A. Feigenbaum

A member of "Timur's Special Forces Unit" of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine looks on on Snake Island, also known as Zmiinyi Island, located in the Black Sea, on August 14, 2025, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Article

The Changing Military Balance in the Black Sea: A Ukrainian Perspective

Ukraine’s asymmetric approach has rendered Russia’s Black Sea Fleet functionally useless. But a long-term commitment will be needed to maintain this balance of power.

Alina Frolova, Stepan Yakymiak