Source: New York Times
Forcing the Military to ChooseSo far the Egyptian military has patiently stuck with President Mubarak in his strategy of doling out concessions with an eyedropper, well past the point at which they would have made any impression on the demonstrators. It is not entirely clear how much of a decision-maker Mubarak will continue to be, or whether he has given much of those powers to Vice President Suleiman. In any event, Suleiman shows no signs of wanting to operate differently from Mubarak, and probably will continue to offer the occasional carrot while applying the stick.
Another question is whether the military will have a public voice separate from that of Mubarak and Suleiman. The Supreme Military Council's "communique #1" issued on Thursday said it would "support the legitimate demands of the people." That statement suggests an effort to establish such a voice, which is a striking departure from the past 20 years or so, in which the military did not speak on political issues.
The Egyptian demonstrators seem to be gaining rather than losing momentum, and at some point soon may try to force the military to choose between the Mubarak/Suleiman regime and the Egyptian people. They could do this by marching en masse, several hundred thousand strong, to the presidential palace and threatening to go over the walls. Such tactics would place much more pressure on the military than it has experienced up until now.
The army would then have to choose between shooting at unarmed protesters or calling on the political leaders to step aside or to meet the protesters' main demands: that Mubarak resigns, the state of emergency be lifted, and the parliament dissolved. It is not clear how much communication there is between the army and the youth organizations steering the protests, and whether such scenarios have been discussed.