Until last Friday Yemen was a very different case than the other examples. All of these examples: Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen are all different in terms of the motivating that is going on, the different factors at work. One of the very big differences with Yemen is that unlike the others, the international community was supporting President Saleh and the Yemeni government because of terrorism and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

 

Number one, there is the fear that the American government and any foreign government did not know what the alternative to Saleh was. I think they were afraid of the alternative and viewed president Saleh and his government as what was standing between Yemen and state failure or state collapse. There was no alternative but to support this government.

 

 

The concern at least in Washington is that if President Saleh goes, there will be chaos. We don’t know what will happen, we don’t know who it is that would follow him. From the American perspective the main concern is terrorism and President Saleh has worked with us on fighting terrorism. Will the next president be as proactive or helpful?

 

 

I don’t know, you’d have to ask them. 

 

 

I think that they feel, more importantly, that they don’t know what the alternative is. That what other option is there but to help? From the government’s perspective if we don’t help Yemen on these things then we know they’ll do it themselves. Not necessarily that our help does achieve what we want. But we know that if we don’t things will get worse.

 

And I think the Yemeni government has done a good job in delivering this message to Washington and others: That if I fall … trust me I am the best thing that you have.

 

So I think one of the big differences between Yemen and Tunisia and Egypt and everywhere else, as long as the Americans and the Saudis continue supporting President Saleh it will reduce the pressure on the regime.

 

 

To end. Washington until now are not saying to Saleh you have to leave. Whereas in other cases: The Americans are dropping bombs in Libya, secretary Gates went to Bahrain to call baby steps on reform… until Friday no one has been saying that message to Yemen.

 

 

I don’t know what the US government is thinking today. But I think they think that things are changing in Yemen and that the situation is no longer as secure as they thought.

 

 

I think the accumulative effect of all of these defections, of Ali Muhsin turning against him, firing his entire government… How many ministers, ambassadors, tribal figures, officials, clerics have all come out.. one by one they might not be that powerful, but all together what does that say?

 

 

They were not good enough for the opposition who themselves are fragmented. There are a lot of different groups; there is the youth, the Joint Meeting Parties, the Houthis, Southern Movement etc. I also think that there are people who are opportunistically leaving because they think the situation is not going to get any better so I should leave now.

 

Also the point about his credibility as part of it. He has promised not to run before but has. And on these economic concessions there is no way to pay for any of these, so you are going to create a new commission to hire college graduates, where is the money to pay for that? Where is the money to pay for salary increases?

 

 

Right over the weekend the JMP came out in support of the protestors, the youth protestors finally. It has been two months, why have you not done this before?

 

I think with all of these reasons, and you know when someone starts to give-in, instead of being a big grand gesture to the opposition Saleh’s concessions emboldened them. They would be thinking, we got this much, what else can we get?

 

 

My advice would be we can’t have this all be about terrorism. That can’t be the only issue we talk about because terrorism and security are not Yemen’s biggest challenges. Al-Qaeda is not what will bring about state failure or collapse whatever it is. One of the biggest problems of US policy is that no one can tell you what state failure in Yemen looks like. Everybody will tell you that what they want to avoid in Yemen is state failure but no one can tell you what that looks like, or what the triggers that will cause are. So I think one of the very big problems is that if we focus on terrorism we are neglecting all the other systemic issues that are eroding Yemen. Such as corruption, governance, unemployment, resource depletion. We can’t have one dialogue about military and security assistance which strengthens the regime at the expense of the Yemeni people. Our policy needs to be how do we improve conditions for all Yemenis? Greater stability and security will result not just in Yemen but for the region and the international community.

 

 

I think democracy is not just voting. It is a whole mindset, it is about participation and about involvement, constitutions. It is not just rights and elections. It is about processes and institutions and how your relationship with the state is. And this is a long process. It is more than just free and fair elections. Development institutions have to go along with it. Democracy is a full package and all of these things need to come with it in order to strengthen the validity of elections. We need to strengthen institutions. Ultimately democracy is about the relationship citizens have with the government and the other way round. That takes a long time to happen. The challenge for western policy makers on Yemen is how do you improve this relationship between the government and the people? How do you build the capacity and the capability within the Yemeni government whatever government it is. To be more responsive to the citizens, to be able to provide more services, and be more in control of the territory and able to be a better government. And how do you build the belief within the Yemeni public that their government is acting in their interest. This is a huge project and not just Yemen. This is one of the big challenges in the 21st century.