Changing Perceptions of Extended Deterrence in Japan

{
  "authors": [
    "James L. Schoff"
  ],
  "type": "other",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "AP",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "East Asia",
    "Japan"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Nuclear Policy"
  ]
}

Other

Changing Perceptions of Extended Deterrence in Japan

The U.S. nuclear umbrella is only one component of America’s security commitment to Japan. Forward defense deployments, cooperative missile defense development, stepped-up intelligence sharing, and diplomatic and political visits are all components of extended deterrence.

By James L. Schoff

Published on Nov 20, 2012

Source: Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age

Writing in Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age, Carnegie's James Schoff offers a fresh assessment of thinking in Japan about nuclear weapons and extended deterrence following North Korea’s nuclear tests, with emphasis on the circumstances under which Japan would seriously consider or actually acquire a nuclear capability. He also explores recent nuclear deterrence debates in Japan from a historical context, and it recommends ways that U.S. policy makers can reassure their Japanese counterparts as to the durability and viability of America’s security commitments.

The chapter looks beyond just the nuclear component of extended deterrence with regard to Japan. Indeed, U.S. reassurance of its nuclear umbrella over Japan is only one (albeit important) component of America’s security commitment to Japan. U.S. forward deployments in East Asia, missile defense development with Japan, stepped-up intelligence sharing with Japan, U.S. preemptive strike policies vis-à-vis North Korean missile launch pads, and diplomatic/political visits and signaling are all components of extended deterrence, among others.

A detailed understanding of how Japan can and might approach the nuclear question in response to current and future events is critical for the proper orientation of America’s security policies in East Asia and for a well-functioning U.S.-Japan alliance.

Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age is available for purchase through the Georgetown University Press.

About the Author

James L. Schoff

Former Senior Fellow, Asia Program

James L. Schoff was a senior fellow in the Carnegie Asia Program. His research focuses on U.S.-Japan relations and regional engagement, Japanese technology innovation, and regional trade and security dynamics.

Recent Work

Paper
A High-Tech Alliance: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.-Japan Science and Technology Collaboration
- James L. Schoff, Douglas E. Rake, Joshua Levy
Commentary
What’s the U.S. Take on Russia-Japan Relations?
- James L. Schoff

Nuclear Policy East Asia Japan

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Paper
Time for Nuclear Recycling? Prospects and Implications During a Global Nuclear Energy Renewal
Nuclear recycling has emerged as a salient, cross-cutting issue, one that is heavily dependent on broader choices among reactor designs, fuel availability, economic resources, technological options, and political choices. States and nuclear industries seeking to advance recycling must devote sustained consideration now to the interplay of all these factors.
Etienne Pochon
Paper
China’s Police and Security Cooperation Agreements
China’s Ministry of Public Security is often portrayed as a domestic law enforcement agency, but it is also a global security actor. This paper explores how MPS has used international law enforcement and security cooperation agreements—over 200 since 2006—to advance China’s vision of security in a changing global environment.
Sophie Zhuang, Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Cameron Waltz
Commentary
Strategic Europe
Europe Should Not Let Nuclear Nonproliferation Die
Amid uncertainty caused by the Iran war, the global drive for nonproliferation has stalled. With Europe diplomatically marginalized and countries reassessing their nuclear options, efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons risk becoming irrelevant.
Jane Darby Menton
Commentary
Post U.S.-China Summit: Managed Instability
The U.S.-China Summit produced a welcome commitment to build a constructive, strategically stable relationship. However, the United States has a full agenda, including the USMCA review beginning this week, that will likely target Chinese practices of concern. If China views these efforts as inconsistent with the agreements reached in Beijing, it may slow or halt progress in response.
Barbara Weisel
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Are Russia-Japan Relations Really Warming Up?
The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.
James D.J. Brown

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Nuclear power plant reactor under construction

Paper

Time for Nuclear Recycling? Prospects and Implications During a Global Nuclear Energy Renewal

Nuclear recycling has emerged as a salient, cross-cutting issue, one that is heavily dependent on broader choices among reactor designs, fuel availability, economic resources, technological options, and political choices. States and nuclear industries seeking to advance recycling must devote sustained consideration now to the interplay of all these factors.

Etienne Pochon

Recruit polices vow as they join in the police at Beijing Public Security Bureau on February 18, 2011 in Beijing, China. (

Paper

China’s Police and Security Cooperation Agreements

China’s Ministry of Public Security is often portrayed as a domestic law enforcement agency, but it is also a global security actor. This paper explores how MPS has used international law enforcement and security cooperation agreements—over 200 since 2006—to advance China’s vision of security in a changing global environment.

Sophie Zhuang, Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Cameron Waltz

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Europe Should Not Let Nuclear Nonproliferation Die

Amid uncertainty caused by the Iran war, the global drive for nonproliferation has stalled. With Europe diplomatically marginalized and countries reassessing their nuclear options, efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons risk becoming irrelevant.

Jane Darby Menton

Chinese President Xi Jinping interacts with U.S. President Donald Trump during a state banquet at the Great Hall of the People on May 14, 2026 in Beijing, China.

Commentary

Post U.S.-China Summit: Managed Instability

The U.S.-China Summit produced a welcome commitment to build a constructive, strategically stable relationship. However, the United States has a full agenda, including the USMCA review beginning this week, that will likely target Chinese practices of concern. If China views these efforts as inconsistent with the agreements reached in Beijing, it may slow or halt progress in response.

Barbara Weisel

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Are Russia-Japan Relations Really Warming Up?

The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.

James D.J. Brown