• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Marc Pierini"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Turkey’s Transformation"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "EP",
  "programs": [
    "Europe"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Europe",
    "Türkiye",
    "Middle East",
    "Western Europe",
    "Iran"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "EU",
    "Migration"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media
Carnegie Europe

The EU-Turkey Double Paradox in the Refugee Crisis

An agreement between the EU and Turkey to curb the influx of refugees is being hampered by a lack of trust between the parties and by mutual misunderstandings.

Link Copied
By Marc Pierini
Published on Feb 9, 2016
Program mobile hero image

Program

Europe

The Europe Program in Washington explores the political and security developments within Europe, transatlantic relations, and Europe’s global role. Working in coordination with Carnegie Europe in Brussels, the program brings together U.S. and European policymakers and experts on strategic issues facing Europe.

Learn More

Source: Euronews

Gulsum Alan, Euronews: Is it a realistic agreement? Do you think it will work?

Marc Pierini: It was a kind of horse trading by the EU and Turkey, which had no chances of working, or which at least would have immense difficulties. And that’s where we are now. The difficulties are part and parcel of the conception, as it’s about trading promises on visas and on accession talks against help for refugees, which are things that have no link between each other.

Alan: How should Turkey manage the influx of refugees, which is constantly increasing, while at the same time, make sure they don’t head towards the doors of the EU?

Pierini: The problem is that on the Aegean coast, there is a mafia that makes astronomic profits, a billion euros, if not two billion euros during 2015, by essentially sending people to death. It would be enough for the Turkish police, who are perfectly equipped, to really intervene – to catch people you can see in internet videos, on cameras, in Izmir or in Bodrum.

Alan: It’s really that simple?

Pierini: It’s not necessarily that simple, but it’s something that hasn’t really been addressed. The new influx of refugees was predictable. And now we’re in a double paradox situation. Turkey says ‘we don’t let them enter for the moment – but we will do so, when it’s necessary.’ And the second paradox: the EU says ‘you have to let them enter – but you have to keep them.’

Alan: Is there a lack of trust between the two parties? Why is there this blockage?

Pierini: The problem, as you say, is the lack of trust. The only English speaking newspaper in Turkey has spoken of ‘the perversity of the European Union’… That’s not really a climate of cooperation. That’s a climate of distrust. It’s the same thing on the European side.

Alan: But Turkey already hosts almost three million refugees.

Pierini: Less the million that has left for Europe. The figures keep changing, but Turkey hosts many refugees, the country has been very generous. The 15 percent of those refugees who are in camps are very well treated – the others try to eke out a living on their own savings. But Europe will have to talk with Turkey on the police-aspect of the problem. It’s just not acceptable that Turkish and European tax-payers spend billions on helping those poor refugees – a good thing in itself – but while well-known human traffickers are cashing in billions too.

This interview was originally aired by Euronews.

About the Author

Marc Pierini

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Pierini is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on developments in the Middle East and Turkey from a European perspective.

    Recent Work

  • Other
    Unpacking Trump’s National Security Strategy
      • Cecily Brewer
      • +18

      James M. Acton, Saskia Brechenmacher, Cecily Brewer, …

  • Commentary
    Europe’s American Predicament

      Marc Pierini

Marc Pierini
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Marc Pierini
EUMigrationEuropeTürkiyeMiddle EastWestern EuropeIran

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Global Instability Makes Europe More Attractive, Not Less

    Europe isn’t as weak in the new geopolitics of power as many would believe. But to leverage its assets and claim a sphere of influence, Brussels must stop undercutting itself.

      Dimitar Bechev

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    How Trump’s Wars Are Boosting Russian Oil Exports

    The interventions in Iran and Venezuela are in keeping with Trump’s strategy of containing China, but also strengthen Russia’s position.

      • Mikhail Korostikov

      Mikhail Korostikov

  • Satellite of a damaged oil refinery
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Iran Is Pushing Its Neighbors Toward the United States

    Tehran’s attacks are reshaping the security situation in the Middle East—and forcing the region’s clock to tick backward once again.

      Amr Hamzawy

  • A boat, with smoke in the background
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The Gulf Monarchies Are Caught Between Iran’s Desperation and the U.S.’s Recklessness

    Only collective security can protect fragile economic models.

      • Andrew Leber

      Andrew Leber

  • Commentary
    Sada
    Duqm at the Crossroads: Oman’s Strategic Port and Its Role in Vision 2040

    In a volatile Middle East, the Omani port of Duqm offers stability, neutrality, and opportunity. Could this hidden port become the ultimate safe harbor for global trade?

      Giorgio Cafiero, Samuel Ramani

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600Fax: 202 483 1840
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.