• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Marc Pierini"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Turkey’s Transformation"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "EP",
  "programs": [
    "Europe"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Europe",
    "Türkiye",
    "Middle East",
    "Western Europe",
    "Iran"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "EU",
    "Migration"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media
Carnegie Europe

The EU-Turkey Double Paradox in the Refugee Crisis

An agreement between the EU and Turkey to curb the influx of refugees is being hampered by a lack of trust between the parties and by mutual misunderstandings.

Link Copied
By Marc Pierini
Published on Feb 9, 2016
Program mobile hero image

Program

Europe

The Europe Program in Washington explores the political and security developments within Europe, transatlantic relations, and Europe’s global role. Working in coordination with Carnegie Europe in Brussels, the program brings together U.S. and European policymakers and experts on strategic issues facing Europe.

Learn More

Source: Euronews

Gulsum Alan, Euronews: Is it a realistic agreement? Do you think it will work?

Marc Pierini: It was a kind of horse trading by the EU and Turkey, which had no chances of working, or which at least would have immense difficulties. And that’s where we are now. The difficulties are part and parcel of the conception, as it’s about trading promises on visas and on accession talks against help for refugees, which are things that have no link between each other.

Alan: How should Turkey manage the influx of refugees, which is constantly increasing, while at the same time, make sure they don’t head towards the doors of the EU?

Pierini: The problem is that on the Aegean coast, there is a mafia that makes astronomic profits, a billion euros, if not two billion euros during 2015, by essentially sending people to death. It would be enough for the Turkish police, who are perfectly equipped, to really intervene – to catch people you can see in internet videos, on cameras, in Izmir or in Bodrum.

Alan: It’s really that simple?

Pierini: It’s not necessarily that simple, but it’s something that hasn’t really been addressed. The new influx of refugees was predictable. And now we’re in a double paradox situation. Turkey says ‘we don’t let them enter for the moment – but we will do so, when it’s necessary.’ And the second paradox: the EU says ‘you have to let them enter – but you have to keep them.’

Alan: Is there a lack of trust between the two parties? Why is there this blockage?

Pierini: The problem, as you say, is the lack of trust. The only English speaking newspaper in Turkey has spoken of ‘the perversity of the European Union’… That’s not really a climate of cooperation. That’s a climate of distrust. It’s the same thing on the European side.

Alan: But Turkey already hosts almost three million refugees.

Pierini: Less the million that has left for Europe. The figures keep changing, but Turkey hosts many refugees, the country has been very generous. The 15 percent of those refugees who are in camps are very well treated – the others try to eke out a living on their own savings. But Europe will have to talk with Turkey on the police-aspect of the problem. It’s just not acceptable that Turkish and European tax-payers spend billions on helping those poor refugees – a good thing in itself – but while well-known human traffickers are cashing in billions too.

This interview was originally aired by Euronews.

About the Author

Marc Pierini

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Marc Pierini is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on developments in the Middle East and Turkey from a European perspective.

    Recent Work

  • Article
    Turkey’s Four Headaches Are Also Europe’s

      Marc Pierini

  • Commentary
    The Denmark-Greenland-U.S. Agreement Needs to Stand the Test of Time

      Marc Pierini

Marc Pierini
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe
Marc Pierini
EUMigrationEuropeTürkiyeMiddle EastWestern EuropeIran

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Article
    Turkey’s Four Headaches Are Also Europe’s

    Between stalled economic ties and a push for greater security cooperation, EU-Turkey relations remain uncertain. Ankara’s continued slide toward autocracy is the likeliest common denominator in these competing dynamics.

      Marc Pierini

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Member States Must Make Enlargement Their Own

    The European Commission is preparing the EU for its next enlargement. But member states need to make it a project that European citizens can understand, shape, and support.

      Iliriana Gjoni

  • President of the EU Council Antonio Luis Santos da Costa (L) the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (C) and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen (R) talk to the media prior to the start of the second day of an EU Summit in the Europa building, the EU Council headquarter prior to an EU Summit on October 16, 2026, in Brussels, Belgium.
    Article
    Europe Struggles to Sustain Support for Ukraine

    EU and member-state leaders will need to show the political will and flexibility to adjust to Ukraine’s changing needs and to find compromises that will put support on a sustainable, long-term footing.

      Phyllis Berry

  • Planetary Power: Geoengineering and the New Geopolitics of Climate Intervention
    Research
    Planetary Power: Geoengineering and the New Geopolitics of Climate Intervention

    Geoengineering is becoming a geopolitical question as much as a climate one. The way states and the private sector pursue these technologies, assess risks, and drive research increasingly appears focused on gaining a strategic edge. In a field where governance in lagging behind, Europe should keep track of the geopolitical implications if it is to develop effective regulatory frameworks.

      Olivia Lazard, ed.

  • Paper
    The Twilight of Oil in an Age of Uncertainty: From a Vicious to a Virtuous Cycle

    The global hydrocarbon order is changing. Economic diversification and developing productive economies have become essential for Middle Eastern and North African states, requiring them to address social and political challenges and rethink domestic, regional, and global settlements.

      • +1

      Nur Arafeh, Ishac Diwan, Hamza Meddeb, …

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.