Program
American Statecraft
Realistic Scenarios for Coexistence Between the U.S. and China

Tensions between the United States and China have made many strategists pessimistic about the future of their relationship. With the two powers competing in nearly every domain, there is a real risk of conflict over the next decade. If there is to be any possibility of stability in their relationship, we need a positive vision for how to get there. In the Carnegie Endowment’s new edited volume, ten experts present their ideas about positive and realistic scenarios for the U.S.-China relationship over the next decade. 

How Can the U.S. and China Reach a Realistic Coexistence?

Growing U.S.-China tensions have generated a pessimistic vision for the future of the relationship. Christopher S. Chivvis explores how the United States and China might manage their competitive relationship without resorting to war.

Publication

U.S.-China Relations for the 2030s: Toward a Realistic Scenario for Coexistence

It has become difficult to imagine how Washington and Beijing might turn their relationship, which is so crucial to the future of world order, toward calmer waters. If there is to be any hope of doing so, however, policy experts need some realistic vision of what those calmer waters might look like.

U.S.-China Relations for the 2030s
video
How Should the U.S. Respond to Beijing’s Influence Operations?

As China conducts informational influence operations inspired by Moscow’s playbook, how concerned should the U.S. and its allies be? How should the U.S. respond?

  • Audrye Wong
· November 25, 2024
video
How Will the U.S.-China Military Balance Evolve in East Asia by 2034?

How will the military balance of power in East Asia evolve over the next decade amid tense competition between the United States and China? What would a stable balance of power that minimizes the risk of military conflict look like, and how might it emerge?

  • M. Taylor Fravel
  • Eric Heginbotham
· November 21, 2024
video
Is Dollar Displacement Overhyped?

What are Beijing’s intentions for its currency, the renminbi (RMB)? Could it really displace the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency?

  • Edoardo Campanella
  • Meg Rithmire
· November 19, 2024
video
Is Joint Action on Global Challenges the Key to Improved U.S.-China Relations?

U.S.-China relations have reached a low since their rapprochement in the 1970s. Can focusing on shared global challenges offer a way out of rising tensions?

  • Rosemary Foot
· November 14, 2024
video
The U.S., China, and Our Global Economic Future

Given the U.S. and China’s dominant positions in the world economy, how can they ensure a functioning global economic system into the 2030s?

  • C. Fred Bergsten
· November 12, 2024
video
What Do International Relations Theories Predict for the Future of U.S.-China Relations?

What can international relations theories tell us about the most geopolitically consequential bilateral relationship of the next decade?

  • Stephen Walt
· October 29, 2024
Video of Stephen Wertheim discussing new conceptual frameworks for America's China strategy
video
After Engagement, What? New Conceptual Frameworks for America's China Strategy

Over the past decade, leaders across the political spectrum have rejected the conceptual framework known as “engagement” that had guided U.S. policy toward China since the mid-1990s. Stephen Wertheim outlines the benefits of identifying a positive framework for U.S.-China relations and explores four conceptual frameworks for America's China strategy for the 2030s.

· October 24, 2024
Video of George Perkovich discussing how the U.S. and China can reduce the risk of nuclear conflict.
video
How Can the U.S. and China Build Stable Nuclear Relations for the 2030s?

As the U S. and China develop new weapons systems and enhance their nuclear arsenals, what steps should they take to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict? George Perkovich explores a path toward de-escalation and argues that presidential-level dialogue to clarify each state's strategic perspective will be vital for reducing the risk of nuclear conflict.

· October 23, 2024
Video of Evan Medeiros discussing the critical factors that will drive the future of the U.S.-China relationship.
video
What Lies Ahead for Future U.S.-China Relations?

What factors will influence the future of U.S.-China relations? Evan Medeiros lays out the critical factors that will drive Washington and Beijing's relationship toward one of five different possible scenarios, ranging from a global condominium to a new cold war, and offers policy recommendations for managing competition.

  • Evan Medeiros
· October 18, 2024