Speaking on KCRW’s To the Point, Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour explained that the Iranian deal announced last week has important implications. Assuming that a deal is signed following the June deadline, and that the deal continues to work for several years, there is still a valid concern that it would be hard to reconstitute sanctions against Iran should Iran return to harmful nuclear activities, he said. He added that there are also concerns that the Iranians may not be working on the same framework laid out by the U.S. Listening to the Iranian interpretation of the nuclear deal signed last week shows some discrepancies that would need to be worked out, he said.
U.S. allies in the Middle East, particularly Israel and the Arab states in the Persian Gulf, are concerned about the nuclear deal, Sadjadpour continued. It is expected that over the coming weeks and months, there will be a “tremendous U.S. outreach” towards those allies to talk about security pacts and calm their fears. The Obama administration is under pressure to prove that the nuclear deal is “not an acquiescence” in the face of Iran’s nuclear program and its troublesome regional activities, Sadjadpour added.
People may have unrealistic implications over what this deal means for Iran’s economy, Sadjadpour continued. Large Western multinational companies are unlikely to do business in Iran soon—instead they will probably take a wait-and-see approach. However, Chinese, Indian, and smaller European companies may “dip their toes in the water.” Iran is an attractive economy to the outside world as it has 75-80 million educated and Westernized consumers. This arguable makes Iran the largest market that is still isolated from globalization, he concluded.