Other
Michael D. Swaine
{
"authors": [
"Michael D. Swaine"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie China"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "AP",
"programs": [
"Asia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"East Asia",
"South Korea",
"China",
"Taiwan",
"Japan",
"North Korea"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy",
"Nuclear Policy",
"Security",
"Arms Control"
]
}
Source: Getty
Other
Chinese Views on the Trump Administration’s Asia Policy
Authoritative and non-authoritative Chinese commentaries on the Trump administration’s foreign policy have tended to avoid making hostile remarks in response to some notable U.S. provocations.
Published on Jun 1, 2017
Source: China Leadership Monitor
Authoritative and non-authoritative Chinese commentaries on the Trump administration’s foreign policy have tended to avoid making hostile remarks in response to some notable U.S. provocations. This cautious stance most likely reflects at least three factors. First, the Chinese now recognize that presidential campaigns often produce aggressive rhetoric, but a new administration eventually moderates its stance in the face of practical constraints. Second, the upcoming 19th Party Congress in fall 2017 strongly indicates the need for Beijing to avoid taking any actions that could generate a foreign policy crisis. Third, the Chinese probably believe that Trump is ultimately someone who will take a pragmatic and transactional approach toward the Sino-American relationship. The current Chinese viewpoint, however, could darken considerably if Washington or Beijing adopt confrontational stances toward sensitive and potentially volatile foreign policy issues such as North Korea, Taiwan, or the South China Sea.
In CLM 50, we examined Chinese views on presidential candidates Hillary R. Clinton and Donald J. Trump. In this issue, we take a close look at Chinese views toward President Trump’s policies toward Asia and China. The period covered begins with Trump’s election on November 8, 2016, and ends with the presidential summit between President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping, held at Trump’s Mar-A-Lago resort April 6–7.
As in previous Monitor articles, Chinese views in this essay are divided into authoritative and non-authoritative statements and actions. Five main foreign policy subjects are covered: 1) the state of overall current and future U.S.-China relations; 2) economic and trade policy, especially involving China; 3) the Taiwan issue; 4) the ongoing North Korea nuclear weapons crisis; and 5) maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas. The article ends with an assessment of the main features and trends of those views and their possible implications for the future...
About the Author
Michael D. Swaine
Former Senior Fellow, Asia Program
Swaine was a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of the most prominent American analysts in Chinese security studies.
- What Kind of Global Order Should Washington and Beijing Strive For?
- A Smarter U.S. Strategy for China in Four StepsCommentary
Michael D. Swaine
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- What Does Nuclear Proliferation in East Asia Mean for Russia?Commentary
Troubled by the growing salience of nuclear debates in East Asia, Moscow has responded in its usual way: with condemnation and threats. But by exacerbating insecurity, Russia is forcing South Korea and Japan to consider radical security options.
James D.J. Brown
- Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China’s DirectionCommentary
Hanoi and Beijing have long treated each other as distant cousins rather than comrades in arms. That might be changing as both sides draw closer to hedge against uncertainty and America’s erratic behavior.
Nguyễn Khắc Giang
- The Iran War Is a Stress Test for Gulf StatesCommentary
The conflict is exposing the flaws and fissures of their domestic governance and social cohesion.
Frederic Wehrey, Charles H. Johnson
- Taking the Pulse: Is the EU Ready for Rapprochement With the UK?Commentary
Closer EU-UK ties could help address urgent European concerns. But is the EU ready for rapprochement with the United Kingdom?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- Duterte’s Populist Foreign Policy as Illiberal Defiance: Consequences and ProspectsPaper
In the Philippines, Duterte-era discourse emphasizing sovereignty, anti-Western skepticism, and strongman diplomacy mirrors tenets of populist foreign policy around the world.
Aries A. Arugay
