What Happened?
Last week’s fighting, which killed at least sixteen people, represented the bloodiest few days since the two countries fought their brief Four Day War in April 2016.
Since the late Soviet era, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mostly ethnically Armenian breakaway region of Azerbaijan. After the Soviet Union collapsed, ethnic Armenians in the territory declared their independence from Azerbaijan. But Azerbaijan still considers the area part of its sovereign territory.
In 1994, the two sides reached a ceasefire, which led to a period of relative stability. Occasional skirmishes still took place along the Nagorno-Karabakh line of contact. But this week’s escalation went much further. Fighting boiled over along the Tavush region in Armenia, on the far northeast side of the disputed territory, and in areas populated with civilian villages on both sides. One elderly Azerbaijani civilian was killed in this week’s violence.
Who Started It?
It is still unclear who initiated this latest round of fighting. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have tossed accusations against each other, as they generally do whenever their forces clash.
Azerbaijan blamed Armenia for launching an assault against the frontline troops of Azerbaijan and shelling Azerbaijani villages in the Tovuz district, bordering Armenian Tavush, with mortars and howitzers. Armenia, in response, accused the Azerbaijani army of a breakthrough attempt on the border. Then, on July 16, Azerbaijan threatened to strike Armenia’s nuclear power plant, which is close to the country’s capital and provides almost half of Armenia’s electricity. Armenia’s Foreign Ministry called this threat “genocidal.”
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev removed Elmar Mammadyarov from his former position as foreign minister, which he had held since 2004, accusing him of conducting “meaningless negotiations” with Armenia. Aliyev appointed former education minister Jeyhun Bayramov, who has limited foreign policy credentials, as Mammadyarov’s replacement. The situation is still volatile, as Yerevan claimed it repelled a July 21 Azerbaijani attack in the same region, an accusation Baku denies.
How Are Ordinary Citizens in Both Countries Reacting?
Both countries are experiencing a rally-around-the-flag moment. At first, opposition figures put their differences aside and pledged to support the troops. In Azerbaijan, however, pro-war sentiment got out of hand on the night of July 14, when thousands took to Baku’s Azadilq Square for a demonstration that turned into a fracas. What started as a largely spontaneous nationalist march in support of the war somehow devolved into antigovernment and anti-police outbursts of anger. A small group stormed the parliament building as police used tear gas, rubber bullets, and water cannons to break up the melee. Protesters were angry at the country’s high death toll in the fighting, including a well-respected and decorated general. These demonstrations are the biggest and most visible expression of grassroots discontent in Azerbaijan recently, highlighting that war can have unpredictable consequences. The protests come on the heels of rising social grievances and anger over police brutality as the country’s social contract has frayed amid stagnating economic performance and the coronavirus pandemic.
In Armenia, political polarization remains high, especially in light of the government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashiniyan’s widely criticized response to the coronavirus. The fighting appears to have put those issues on the back burner, at least for the parliamentary opposition. Far-right elements and members of the former government, which was ousted in the 2018 Velvet Revolution, have been more critical. Pashiniyan and his My Step Alliance, however, continue to enjoy broad legitimacy and will likely weather this storm. Yet, with positions hardening in both countries, the prospects for a negotiated solution to the conflict remain dim.
How Is the Coronavirus Pandemic Reshaping the Humanitarian Situation and Conditions on the Ground?
Military conflict is the last thing that either country needs right now. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are struggling to contain the coronavirus pandemic. Neither country benefits from an escalating conflict right now. Fighting complicates what already is a delicate humanitarian situation across the region. Russia, Iran, and Central Asia are all coping with extremely high infection rates from the coronavirus, rising unemployment, and struggling economies.
How Has the International Community Responded?
The Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States, has mediated the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict since the ceasefire. It urges both sides to abide by the ceasefire, return to negotiations, and curb their inflammatory rhetoric.
So far, Russia has been the most active mediator with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov brokering a telephone discussion between both sides. The Russian Security Council held a closed session on the conflict, and Russian President Vladmir Putin also urged de-escalation. Russia, however, has also been part of the problem. It has supplied arms to both sides—a move that irks Armenia, Russia’s official ally. On July 17, Russia unnerved Azerbaijan with a combat readiness check in its southern and Western military districts, which includes the Russian-Azerbaijani border region.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is publicly backing Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan. Baku sent a deputy defense minister to Ankara, where Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar promised to help and claimed Yerevan would “pay” for the recent escalation—words viewed as an escalatory threat in Armenia. Israel in recent years has apparently provided high-tech arms to Azerbaijan. On July 21, Armenia showcased alleged Israeli-made drones that it claims to have shot down during the fighting. Meanwhile, neighboring Iran pledged to help mediate between the two sides.
What About the United States?
In the United States, however, senior government officials are paying little attention. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not appear to raise the issue in his July 13 phone call with Lavrov and waited two more day before commenting on the issue in a press conference. Despite being in its fourth year of office, the administration of President Donald Trump has yet to issue a policy on the South Caucasus region, creating a vacuum that other powers—including Iran and Russia—appear eager to fill. The lack of senior level response to the latest violence shows once again that Washington does not see the Caucasus as a priority.
Comments(15)
Just because the US has appeared passive does not mean it is not vitally concerned. Azerbaijan hosts western-bound gas and oil pipelines that traverse Georgia, Turkey, and beyond. Those pipelines are vulnerable to attack by Armenians and everyone knows it. The US is vitally concerned with those and future Azeri pipelines and so has always sympathized with authoritarian and corrupt Azerbaijan. Plus, Israel and Azerbaijan are allies, which means that certain domestic US organizations are pro-Azerbaijani. If NATO/US could bring Armenia (Russia's only ally in the region, and a democracy) on their side, they would be able to throw Russia out of the entire Caucasus, and move right up to the Caspian Sea and beyond. That is one reason why America, especially the US Congress, has always maintained excellent relations with Armenia. For the same reason, Russia needs Armenia. Unfortunately, since the US/NATO have traditionally kowtowed to Turkey, which has threatened several times to attack Armenia and which committed Genocide against Armenians from 1915-23, the US/NATO have no credibility when it comes to providing Armenia any meaningful security. By the way, Karabagh/Artsakh has been majority Armenian since ancient times. Azerbaijan, which was only established in 1918 and is not ancient in the slightest, has no valid moral, historical, or legal claims over Karabagh/Artsakh, regardless of what one may read.
Dave sounds as someone knowledgeable about Caucasus, but in fact he provides very messy and inaccurate account of the situation on the ground, and very few of his assessments would pass any political, historical or military test. Yet, it is commendable that he strives to follow developments in Caucasus, which should be taken for granted nowadays amid evolving global crisis at multiple sectors.
Dave knows his history and tells it well.
Dave, your comments are full of hate, false information and bias. Let's fact-check your claims: 1. "Pipelines are vulnerable to attack by Armenians and everyone knows it": A tiny armenia would not dare to attack the pipeline that supplies the energy to Europe and controlled by the International consortium of energy giants. 2. "US sympathized with authoritarian and corrupt Azerbaijan." Below you say that congress have good relations with Armenia?! US have never sympathized Azerbaijani government, there is not any single evidence to prove this claim. Especially after the Trump's presidency there were not any contact between the governments. 3. "Plus, Israel and Azerbaijan are allies": Do you have any evidence to prove this claim? Just because one country purchase weapons from another, does not mean that they are allies. It is pure business and if you have money, you can as well purchase it which again will not make you ally to any country. If the weapons were supplied for free, you may have some validity to your claim. İn this case this is fake claim. 4. "If NATO/US could bring Armenia on their side, they would be able to throw Russia out of the entire Caucasus." USA will never be able to throw Russia out of Caucasus simply because Caucasus is Russia's south west border and will always have say in any case. USA and all the world know and understands this. Russia is also the guarantor of the stability in the region. USA or Europe does not want another Syria or Livia. 5. "Armenia (Russia's only ally in the region, and a democracy)": If Armenia is democracy then, we have to double check the concept of democracy or the meaning behind it. A government that came to power through revolution cannot be democracy and will never be. 6. "the US Congress, has always maintained excellent relations with Armenia": above you say USA sympathetic to Azerbaijan?! Plus Are you talking about a person or a company? There are 535 voting members which are replaced from election to election. This cannot be a serious claim. 7. "Genocide against Armenians from 1915-23": Even Israel and other nations who witnessed true genocide stopped crying about it. If there were genocide, that would be supported by the UN and accepted by the world. Each and every war crimes cannot be claimed as genocide especially during world war one. 8. "By the way, Karabagh/Artsakh has been majority Armenian since ancient times." In this case armenia is eligible to commit an ethnic cleansing? There are international rules that you have to obey. There are internationally recognized territories. One cannot just claim some territory because "the majority" is another ethnic background. In conclusion, the sooner you understand that armenia is in the dead-end with this claims, the sooner the region will develop. The territory claims or historical falsification would not granted any nation prosperity in the 21st century. There should be collaboration and coordination for sustainable development. If Armenia wouldn't start this war, South Caucasus would be one of the shining stars of Europe. Thanks for not letting whit happen.
The comments here are accurate. One can dismiss Farhad’s coronets as just the rant of a Turkish fanatic.
Fighting seems unrelated to N-K. Reinforces my belief there are only two parties to the conflict--Baku and Yerevan. Like the April 2016 "four-day war," parties need no outside help (i.e., Russia) to start fighting, but only outside help (probably Russia) to stop it. US policy is about right for the moment, given that neither side wants to negotiate directly.
I agree, Rich. Of course objective comments like yours are catnip for the Turkish and Azeri fanatics posting here. Russia is the kingmaker here, not petty, second rate powers like the Turks and Azeris, both ruled by ruthless dictators. If the Turks and Azeris attack Armenia because it corrected the error of Stalin in excluding N-K from Armenia, Putin will take them out. Turkey and the Azeris are only useful if it is in Russia’s interest to exploit them. Russian troops in Istanbul? Every patriotic Russian’s dream.
The author might want to read a description of the events that lead to the escalation before writing an article about it. Azeris opened fire on Armenians first, and Armenian sharpshooters responded immediately. Azeris were trying to retake a position their soldiers abandoned, after Armenia had stealthily captured it without firing a shot. There is no "both sides are equally to blame" and coddling Azerbaijan who ranks 168 out of 180 on the Freedom of Press Index is just dishonest and cowardly. You might want to do some research on the fact that Azerbaijan literally recruited Jihadists in the original war. Azerbaijan has launched 2 failed offensive operations in a span of a few days while Armenia maintains border defence and calls for independent 3rd party monitoring to aid in peacekeeping. Enough with the coddling of dictatorships.
Just to clarify. These were not 'flare-ups'. This was a full-on provocation from Armenians, who are using their powerful diaspora money to pay off politicians to go on record and say something they have absolutely no knowledge about. Those kinds of politicians only feed into the shameful propaganda. 12 Azerbaijani soldiers died, including a civilian 77-year-old resident. In addition, recent brutal attacks by Armenians on peaceful Azerbaijani protestors in Los Angeles (their 3000 to Azeri 50 people) and Brussels further shows that Armenians will commit crimes, even outside of their homeland, just to get what they want. The dozens of protesters who were assaulted, some in critical condition, deserve justice for the unprovoked attack. Even seeing those videos chills my blood. One day ago, an Instagram account was created to pay people for information on whereabouts of Azerbaijanis in California just to stalk and beat them up. Two days ago, a Facebook employee said that if Armenians see Facebook posts they don't like and want to flag them, she'll pull strings just because she works there. How crazy is that? Armenian side needs to stop the spread of fake information. Karabakh has always been and still is Azerbaijani land. Four UN Resolutions say so, and every single country supports the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, and condemns Armenian aggression. 20% of our land has been taken away from us for 30 years. Imagine the state of CA taken away from Americans. Well, this is the reality for Azerbaijanis, who haven't been able to visit their hometowns in decades. Armenian brutality and misinformation towards Azerbaijani people needs to stop.
Not only Azerbaijan, but the entire international community considers Karabakh a sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. And Armenia, with the help of Russia of course, occupied this land representing 20% of Azerbaijan’s internationally recognised sovereign territory. Four resolutions of the UN Security Counsel (822, 853, 874 and 884) call for immediate withdrawal of Armenian troops from occupied Azerbaijani territories, including Karabakh. The rest of the is immaterial.
Citing the UN or states is not a valid argument. States oppose self-determination because many states have ethnic minorities that demand autonomy/independence. If Spain supported self-determination in Nagorno-Karabagh then Spain would have to recognize the Catalan and Basques as independent states. Second, Azerbaijan was ruling Nagorno-Karabagh because Stalin gave the territory to the Azeris to please their older brother Turkey although more than 85 percent of the population was Armenian and the territory was a historic part of Armenia. Thirdly during the 70 years Baku ruled Nagorno-Karabagh, it oppressed the Armenians and settled Azeris in the region to change the demographic picture. There are more reasons why N-K belongs to Armenians but these three should suffice.
That is a lie and you know it. Azerbaijan, Turkey and its respective despots needs to get used to the status quo ante, with some minor border adjustments.
Rosee, Armenians did not start this latest battle. Azeris did. Armenians have no reason to restart hostilities. Armenians hold land and, most importantly, are in defensive mode. Armenia has at most 3 million people. Azerbaijan has 10 million people, and many more weapons because it has the money from gas and oil receipts. Armenians recognize this and have no wish to widen the conflict. But Armenians must defend themselves. Armenians have also long asked that 3rd parties and fire detection systems be placed on the line-of-contact. But Azerbaijan has consistently turned that down. Why? Because it is the one that starts these battles. There is another important and well-known international principle at work here besides upholding Soviet borders: self-determination of people. I have explained Azeri repression of the Armenians of Artsakh/Karabagh elsewhere in my comments. Artsakh/Karabagh always had a majority Armenian population. I have explained how Azerbaijan depopulated a similar region, Nakhichevan, of its Armenians. The Armenians of Artsakh/Karabagh were not going to let that happen to them. They declared independence and fought to achieve what they have now, which is a democracy. We know Azeris are aggrieved at this. I am genuinely sorry. But Azerbaijan surely understands that Armenians can never allow themselves to be placed under Azeri rule ever again. And why would you want to rule over Armenians? It makes no sense.
The problem here is the dual dictators Erdogan and Aliyev. Erdogan is a Muslim fanatic and ruthless dictator attempting to resurrect the long dead Ottoman Empire. Aliyev is cut from the same dictatorial cloth. No one can forget the Armenian genocide carried out by the Turks, which obliterated much of the Armenian people. It is a war crime for which Erdogan makes no acknowledgement or apology. He has flooded and desecrated Christian sites, including the desecration of Hagia Sophia. Former President Obama had the opportunity to take out Erdogan but like, with Syrian war crimes, he was too much a coward to act. At some point, either the Russians or the Americans will deal with these petty thieves and dictators. If Azerbaijan or Turkey start a war with Armenia, Russia will destroy them. It is also in Russian interests to take the Baku pipeline to cut off its acccess to the West. So if both dictators value their lives and their territorial integrity, I would suggest they not attack Armenia. Turkey is an enemy of NATO already. Russia can then attain its centuries long goal, control of the Straits and the dissolution of Turkey.
Here are some of the reasons why Karabakh does not belong to Azerbaijan. 1. When the Armenian King Tigran the Great (140 – 55 BC) negotiated with the Roman general Pompey, there was no notion of a country called Azerbaijan anywhere in the world.” Azerbaijan in its current territory ONLY since 1918’’. In the times of Tigran the Great (95-55 BC) there were only two nations in the region – Armenians and Georgians 2. Karabakh was placed under Azerbaijan by Stalin to only form the Soviet Union economic system. 3. Karabakh was never part of independent Azerbaijan. 4. Azerbaijan became independent country from Soviet Union just like Karabakh did. 5. The Collapse of the Soviet Union disqualify Azerbaijanis claims. 6. No Cristian nation should be ruled by neighboring Islam nation. 7. Most facts familiar with the most popular ancient historical records, such as the Histories of Herodotus, Xenophon's Retreat, Strabo’s Geographica, the works of Pliny the Elder, Plutarch, Cassius, Appian, Tacitus, Ammianus Marcellinus. The works of famous European travelers such as Rubruck and Marco Polo, which have a large-scale coverage of the Godly Hayastan-Armenia country and its indigenous Armenian people. Many facts also can be found in Georgian, Persian, Arabic and Greek sources. If Azerbaijanis do not trust the mentioned authors, they could at least have read the Ottoman writers of 16-19 centuries such as Mustafa Naima, Rashid, Ismail Asim Efendi, Suleiman Izghi, Katib Chelebi, Ahmed Cevdet Pasha, Evliya Çelebi. Some of whom not only have provided vast information about the Armenian world, but traveling to Armenia-Ermenistan, contacted with its Armenian-Christian residents. Of course, they did not write anything about Azerbaijan, but it's not their fault that they did not encounter a country named Azerbaijan in its current territory until 1918''
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