The 1914 assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand on a street corner in Sarajevo spurred World War I, a conflict that marked the dawn of the twentieth century’s industrial-scale brutality and bloodletting. This time, will an obscure corner of the South Caucasus be remembered as a similar turning point?
The long-running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which dates to the waning days of the Soviet Union, is not going to trigger a global war. Nor will it affect the vital interests of the world’s great powers. Yet it shines a harsh spotlight on the unraveling post–Cold War world that the United States led for more than three decades. The United States and the European regional powers that previously cherished and protected these arrangements are now pulling back, along with the multilateral institutions they lead. Moreover, they are no longer displaying much unity of purpose when it comes to emerging powers, like Russia and Turkey, who want to carve out a bigger role for themselves in a multipolar world.
The End of an Era
Recent calls for the United States to swoop in to stop the fighting seem quaint and outdated against the backdrop of U.S. global retreat that has accelerated over the past four years. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, which has yet to issue a coherent policy for the South Caucasus, has been irrelevant during this round of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. That’s not all that surprising given Trump’s recent coronavirus diagnosis, the demands of his reelection campaign, and the general dysfunction of his foreign policy team. Yet, even if Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who has urged a more robust U.S. diplomatic response to the crisis, becomes the forty-sixth U.S. president, Washington’s credibility and alliances are strained. Far-away regional conflicts are unlikely to spur much interest or action from an increasingly isolationist American public and a political leadership that faces far more pressing challenges at home, including a pandemic, a fragile economy, and deeply rooted racial injustice.
Europe is also distracted by its own problems: a second wave of coronavirus infections, the threat of a no-deal Brexit, and tensions swirling in the Eastern Mediterranean. Europe’s recent track record of conflict resolution (in the Central African Republic, Georgia, Libya, and Ukraine) offers little hope that it is up to the task. France—the obvious European power to step in given its mediation in recent South Caucasian conflicts such as the 2008 war in Georgia—is distrusted by Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan’s most important ally Turkey. Despite the efforts of France and the United States, NATO ally Turkey continues to pursue policies that conflict with the alliance’s interests, dealing a blow to Western credibility. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is giving Russian President Vladimir Putin a run for his money when it comes to using low-cost and sometimes deniable methods to carve out influence and fill power vacuums. These are precisely the same tactics that Moscow has used in places like Libya, Syria, and Ukraine. The fact that they are being applied in Russia’s backyard—which no one would have predicted—is all the more remarkable. Indeed, it is now Turkey, not Russia, that is acting like the most adventurous power in Eurasia.
Great Powers in the South Caucasus
For more than a decade, Russia proclaimed that the South Caucasus was part of its privileged sphere of influence, warning the West to steer clear. Such pronouncements were rejected outright by the United States and its European allies, who portrayed Moscow as horribly out of touch with modern-day realities (even though they were hardly in a hurry to bring parts of the region into organizations like NATO or the EU). As an array of economic energy and political links blossomed, the Kremlin largely stood by, as it had relatively few competitive advantages in these areas.
While Russia has sold weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, it appears that strong diplomatic backing and military support from outside powers (first, Turkey, and second, Israel) are making a big difference for Azerbaijan in the current fighting, which is the worst since the early 1990s. Azerbaijani forces are able to draw upon armed drones, long-range artillery systems, and the reported deployment of U.S.-made Turkish F-16s to Azerbaijan and hundreds of Syrian mercenaries.
For all the Western hand-wringing about the threat posed by Russian neo-imperialism since the war in Ukraine began in 2014, there are thinly disguised hopes in some quarters in the West that Russia will once again knock heads and bring Armenia and Azerbaijan back to the negotiating table. Yet the Kremlin continues to lag behind fast-moving events in its neighborhood—a reflection of the peculiarities of the Putin-centric decisionmaking apparatus and the persistence of blinkered thinking about neighboring countries. All too often, Moscow’s default response to new crises is to allege that the hidden hand of the West is stirring up trouble, while secretly hoping that any new fire will somehow burn itself out.
The other reality is that Putin is juggling multiple crises at the moment, which means that he hardly welcomes a new set of headaches in the Caucasus. The humanitarian ceasefire Moscow brokered between Armenia and Azerbaijan on October 10 unraveled almost immediately. The Belarus crisis remains extremely fragile. In recent days, Kyrgyzstan has once again descended into chaos. And a worsening COVID-19 outbreak in Moscow is forcing new shutdown measures.
A Bad Omen
Throughout the Trump era, Moscow has been eager to insert itself into hotspots in the Middle East and Africa—to highlight U.S. failures and to portray itself as a major power on the world stage. But Russia rarely is a problem solver and its interventions generally exacerbate instability. China, too, is more assertive globally and eager to benefit from a dysfunctional West. But while it has cash to throw around, cash is not a stabilizing force. Thus, the number of intractable conflicts is growing. The dynamics that grip parts of Africa, Libya, Syria, eastern Ukraine, Venezuela, and Yemen are now spreading to the Caucasus. With the West no longer capable or willing to lead this messy world, regional powers—Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf states, among others—are stepping in but not necessarily bringing order. That is a bad omen not only for Azerbaijan and Armenia but also for the many efforts aimed at maintaining peace and stability around the globe.
Comments(10)
This is the moment for US-Russia-EU cooperation before Caucasus' events spiral out of control. Turkey has become the NATO pariah -- as the Atlantic Alliance itself has deepened into a 21st century anachronism. The Indian military establishment clearly sees that pushing Moscow into the embrace of China is a wholly misplaced strategy. Meanwhile the old US hegemonic order has been eclipsed through American economic inequality and political polarization. But as the old order recedes, Ankara (like Tehran) must be reined in. With the rise of China, the US needs Russia, and Russia would rather have EU sanctions against Turkey than the thought of a regional action against a NATO country, pariah or not. Erdogan has few economic cards to play, hence his populist-nationalist machinations have expanded across the Aegean to Libya and now from Syria and Iraq into the Caucuses. Vacuums cannot tolerate wild cards, and NATO's southeastern flank (Turkey) has now become the wildest card in the deck. If Berlin ever needed to act, the time is now. Russia should be brought into the G-7 once again as the process of consultations for a new security architecture for Europe is allowed to unfold. Moscow's fear of Chinese advancement into Central Asia as well as Turkish-led terrorist elements into the Caucuses opens the door for a new era of cooperation along the anachronistic NATO-Russian divide in Europe. However, the description of the summer of 1914 is apt. Because sooner rather than later, Armenia will call upon the Kremlin -- as the chief member of the CSTO-- to come to its aid. Before this happens Washington and the EU must act! Azerbaijan (through intense pressure on its Turkish ally) must be forced to return to the Madrid Principles. Crippling sanctions and/or temporary NATO suspension will certainly get Erdogan's attention. A permanent ceasefire and a quick return to diplomacy must follow. I have laid out my own peace plan for Nagorno-Karabakh as published in the comment section of Strategic Europe (Judy Asks: Is Peace Possible Between Armenia and Azerbaijan?). But as in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, open ended negotiations without a structured peace plan which places the concept of condominium -- shared sovereignty -- at the center of the solution, will only lead to further frustration. Condominium is a concept and idea whose time has come. Think tanks and diplomats must begin to think "out-of-the-box". Our world needs peace! The era of the global hegemon is over.
Regarding maintaining peace and stability around the region, if Armenia had withdrawn from the occupied lands as demanded by the various UN resolutions, wouldn't there be peace? If foreign powers stopped scratching old wounds between people, wouldn't there be peace? If powers that be really wanted a solution, wouldn't there be peace? I think key to peace is honesty, genuine and non-biased support to solve the problems.
I think Armenia would have been far more likely to compromise if the Azeri regime was not stoking the fires of hatred and dehumanizing Armenians for thirty years. Armenians have never been given any indication that the Azeri regime had any intention of protecting the 150 thousand Armenians of Karabakh. so how could they do anything but demand their rights to self determination. I just present the case of Ramil Safarov who murdered an Armenian in his sleep in Hungry and was proclaimed a hero by Aliyev. Today the Azeri regime is pushing to gain back the territories alone, without the people it should consider its citizens. Its actions clearly show its goal of ethnically cleansing the region, making it even more obvious that the Armenians of Karabakh have the right to self determination.
Yes, I also think that if Armenia had withdrawn its troops from occupied 7 regions, there would not be a war. I still do not get why they did not withdraw, they had 30 years for this
Azerbaijan is fighting for its own territory
Technically speaking it's not Azerbaijan's territory. It was given to them by the Soviet Bolsheviks and with 80% Armenian population the region has right to be independent. Armenians have been badly treated by ethnic cleaning in the 90's, crimes committed by Azerbaijan. Everything has been documented on history pages. This is nothing short of another cleansing as Azerbaijan is not fighting for it's territory but targeting civilians in the Nagorno Karabakh.
@ John J - So by your logic, then Crimea is also not Ukraine's but Russia's territory?
Azeris are lucky to have Turkey backing . They have it for decades and that is a powerful statement. It looks like Muslim brotherhood is stronger than ever as they stand for Muslim plight everywhere. Armenia unfortunately does not have backing or friends that would go to war with it. For Russia it is interest and avoiding appearing weak although Russia does deserve credit for getting involved. US and France stood by not caring about loss of life. They talked but talk is cheap. Christians ultimately don’t care about other Christians and are more concerned about not insulting anyone, although death is the ultimate insult. NATO who ? Israel sold weapons despite it being morally wrong in lieu of history of genocide and tends to take side based on what benefits Israel. The worst now is Loss of Armenian Unity. That is exactly what Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan want. This is the time that Armenians should be closer than ever because nobody else cares.
Although Armenia lost the war of occupation, looks like the Armenian propaganda machine is still churning out lies. Propaganda: Armenia lost because of Turkey. Fact: Armenia lost because they were illegally occupying Azerbaijan territory and at the end they refused to die to maintain their occupation. Propaganda and complete lie: Aremnians were victims of ethenic cleansing in the 90s. It must be the history you wrote in your basement while high on something. Fact: Armenians are the ones who carried out massacres and ethenic cleansing of Azeries in the 90s not only in Nagorno-Karabagh but also in the 8 other districts outside Nagorno-Karabagh that they occupied.
So what happened to the 200-300,000 Armenians that lived in the rest of Azerbaijan after the 1988 pogroms in Baku, Sumgait, and Ganja? You change the facts so easily. It was that violence and ethnic cleansing that made the Armenians of Karabakh set up self defense units. It was the ethnic cleansing of operation ring in the early 90’s that began the ethnic cleansing of Karabakh Armenians. You cried so much, because Armenians turn the tables and it was Azeris that were driven from there lands. I don’t think that was a good thing, but it was militarily necessary as Armenians could not be an occupying force. Armenians were prepared to give it all back with a peace deal that also resolved the final settlement of Karabakh proper. Azeris wanted land back first and then negotiations on Karabakhs status. Armenians aren’t totally innocent of course, but you ignore the far greater atrocities committed by Azerbaijan from the start. You ignore the horrendous injustice of Kars, Nachivan and Karabakh being given away to others by Stalin to appease a genocidal Turkey. You will deny and ignore these facts, but I hope others will research and see the truth.
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