• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
Life after the Russian Presidential Election

Source: Getty

Article
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Life after the Russian Presidential Election

Vladimir Putin secured his return to power in Sunday’s Russian presidential election. Though that result came as no surprise, the issue of what will come next for Russia is still an open question.

Link Copied
By Alexey Malashenko
Published on Mar 7, 2012

Vladimir Putin secured his return to power in Sunday’s Russian presidential election. Though that result came as no surprise, the issue of what will come next for Russia is still an open question.

I would not exclude the possibility that victorious Putin might want to exact some kind of revenge and punish his opponents for all their criticism, protests, and general disobedience. The increased pressure on the Russian mass media, the search for terrorists plotting to eliminate the leading candidate on the eve of the election, and Putin’s statement on the opposition’s possible plans to assassinate some well-known politician in order to provoke unrest in the country all underscore the likelihood of this outcome.

A harsher response from the authorities to ongoing protests against fraud and violations in the presidential election is possible as well. Frightened by the thought of a second round of voting, the authorities pulled out all the stops over the weekend and many election violations were reported.

The Kremlin will also continue to crack down on the Russian mass media, especially on electronic outlets—and it might even tighten its grip. Ninety-nine percent of all television programs will remain the official powers’ sanctuaries. The authorities will also continue their search for means by which to turn up the heat on Internet discussions. Studying China’s and Iran’s success in this area keeps Russian law-enforcement officials up at night.

If this proves to be the Russian authorities’ response to the recent events, it would appear that the state is having a “nervous breakdown” of sorts. There are certainly plenty nervous people in the Kremlin right now.

What should we expect in the more distant future?

All the political reforms announced by now-outgoing president Dmitri Medvedev—such as direct elections of regional governors and amendments to the election code—will commence. However, all these reforms are tactical rather than strategic. They reflect the ruling class’s overarching goal of preserving its power at all costs—even if that power has to be retouched a bit with vague democratic strokes.

The party system will be reformed, resulting in the disappearance of the unpopular, heavy-handed United Russia, which looks to have worn out its welcome. New political parties, including some liberal parties, will replace the outdated, outspent organizations, and the Communist Party will be partially reconstructed.

The issue of the Kremlin’s relations with the “informal opposition” will be resolved according to the opposition’s willingness to play by the Kremlin’s rules. If some of the opposition leaders abide by the rules, they will later be allowed into the State Duma. New starts and starlets will also appear on Russia’s political horizon.

I believe that the most important issue will be whether the current ruling class realizes that Russian society has gone through fundamental and possibly irreversible changes, that the old way of governing the state has become ineffective and largely useless. While Putin has returned as president of Russia, “Putinism” as a model of state governance, designed to serve one person whose authority was based on a small clan of close associates, is no more.

About the Author

Alexey Malashenko

Former Scholar in Residence, Religion, Society, and Security Program

Malashenko is a former chair of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Religion, Society, and Security Program.

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    What Will Uzbekistan’s New President Do?

      Alexey Malashenko

  • Commentary
    Preserving the Calm in Russia’s Muslim Community

      Alexey Malashenko

Alexey Malashenko
Former Scholar in Residence, Religion, Society, and Security Program
Alexey Malashenko
CaucasusRussiaPolitical ReformForeign PolicyDomestic Politics

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    The Climate Blind Spot in Europe’s New Migration Pact

    The EU’s new migration policy is not suited to today’s realities. With climate change increasingly becoming a driver of displacement, Europe needs to rethink its deterrence-focused approach.

      • Shana Tabak headshot

      Shana Tabak

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    The World According to Putin: No Deal on Ukraine in Sight

    The issue is not that the president only has selective information at his disposal, but that the decision-making process consists of one person with an unshakeable vision of how the world works.

      Tatiana Stanovaya

  • two men sitting next to each other
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Senegal’s Debt Crisis Has Moved Its Leaders from Partners to Rivals

    The impacts of the Faye-Sonko rupture could go well beyond the country’s borders.

      • Dr. Lesley Anne Warner

      Lesley Anne Warner

  • Participants in the 4th Meeting 'In Defense of Democracy' | Pool Moncloa/Fernando Calvo
    Paper
    Post-U.S. International Democracy Support: Aspiration in Search of Substance

    The reinvention of democracy support needs to be carried forward without the clear leadership of one dominant player.

      Richard Youngs, Thomas Carothers

  • Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary, speaks during a campaign rally of the governing Fidesz Party in Pecel, Hungary, on March 28. The rally is part of the Prime Minister's nationwide campaign trail before the Hungarian General Election scheduled for April 12.
    Paper
    Orbán, Fidesz, and Hungary’s Populist Foreign Policy

    Hungary under Viktor Orbán deployed right-wing populism as a foreign policy strategy, embedding the country in a web of illiberal transnational networks whose legacy will endure even after his April 2026 electoral defeat.

      Zsuzsanna Végh

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.