crowds of people carrying large bags amid bombed-out buildings

Palestinians carry humanitarian aid in the central Gaza Strip on August 4, 2025. (Photo by AFP via Getty Images)

Is the Tide Turning on Palestinian Statehood?

How the events in Gaza are—and aren’t—shifting the conversation on the two-state solution.

Published on August 4, 2025

How do you see the international community reacting to the food crisis in Gaza?

Marwan Muasher: The images of starvation in Gaza can no longer be ignored.  Children dying of malnutrition and hunger can no longer be attributed to fighting Hamas, whose military capabilities have been seriously undermined. Evidence continues to mount that Israel is using starvation as a weapon against civilians, who are desperate for food.

The last few weeks have witnessed a serious shift in countries’ attitudes. In the West, Canada, France, and the UK have indicated their intention to recognize a Palestinian state in September. More may follow. Even countries such as Germany and Italy, longtime supporters of the Israeli state, are finding it difficult to stay silent.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not showing any intention to stop the war, despite rising domestic and international pressure to do so. In fact, news reports say he is considering expanding the war in an attempt to free the remaining Israeli hostages. Netanyahu’s primary aim appears to be to preserve his coalition government as long as possible. Given the TV images and a reality on the ground that is increasingly being exposed to the international community, his strategy may not hold for long. But serious international pressure to stop the war can only come from the United States, and if President Donald Trump’s latest statements are any indication, such pressure may come sooner than later.

Amr Hamzawy: Governments and civil societies in the Arab world have reacted in shock and dismay to the images as well. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are air-dropping aid into the Gaza Strip. Egypt has resumed using its land borders with Gaza and Israel to get hundreds of aid trucks in after Israel announced a brief daily pause in military operations to allow for the safe distribution of aid.

In addition, Egypt and Qatar have accelerated their monthslong mediation efforts, along with the government of the United States, to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Arab leaders have called on Trump to engage more in the diplomacy of putting an end to the Gaza war and its horrors. Arab civil societies have rallied nonviolently to demand an end to the war and called on their governments to do more to get humanitarian aid into Gaza.

How significant is the Western countries’ move toward recognition of a Palestinian state?

Amr Hamzawy: There are increasing signs that the tide is turning with regard to Gaza and Palestine.

A few months ago, Israeli plans to displace the Gazan population—which received Trump’s initial endorsement—dominated the global policy discussion on Palestine. Egypt led the Arabs in rejecting displacement plans and in formulating a holistic reconstruction roadmap for Gaza—the Arab Reconstruction Plan for Gaza—that has enjoyed European and international support.

But with the continuation of the war, its horrendous cost on Gazans, and the ensuing tragedy of starvation, the discussion is now shifting again away from tolerating the Israeli far-right’s war-mongering and into prioritizing putting an end to the war and enabling Gazans to regain security and peace, as reflected in the Canadian, French, and British moves toward recognition of a Palestinian state.

The Saudi-French two-state initiative also promises to further turn the tide. Last week, the twenty-two member states of the Arab League—alongside the EU and several other countries—issued a joint call to back the initiative. They also called on Hamas to disarm and relinquish power in Gaza. Their statement condemns the October 7 attacks on Israel, requires that governance in the Palestinian territories must lie in the hands of the Palestinian Authority aided by the international community, and renews the peace offer to Israel based on accepting the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

That effort may not only bring attention to short-term peacemaking and conflict-resolution efforts, but also look ahead to the possibility of resolving the conflict based on the only workable formula: land for peace, or land and self-determination for peace and security.

Marwan Muasher: Out of 193 UN member states, 147 already recognize a Palestinian state, a cornerstone of the two-state solution. Many more may follow as a result of Israeli actions. Such recognition might not end up achieving a two-state solution in the near term, given Israel’s strong refusal and U.S. acquiescence. But it is indicative that the international tide is shifting against Israel, with serious long-term repercussions. 

A Pew poll conducted earlier this year showed that the number of Americans with a negative view of Israel has surpassed the fifty percent mark. Equally indicative is the attitude of 18-to-49-year-old Republicans: 50 percent now view Israel negatively, compared to 71 percent among Democrats of the same age. A continuation of the Gaza war without a serious effort by the United States and the international community to stop it and work toward a permanent settlement will only widen this gap in the United States and around the world.

How have Egypt, Jordan, and other neighbors navigated these events?

Marwan Muasher: Jordan has stepped up its diplomatic and humanitarian efforts. In recent weeks, King Abdullah has visited Canada, Germany, and the United States in an effort to seek an end to the war on Gaza and to boost humanitarian assistance to starving Palestinians in the strip. As a result, Canada and Germany collaborated with Jordan (and others) in air-dropping aid, as well as sending assistance by trucks. 

Jordan has also played an active role in the recent UN conference on the two-state solution, co-chairing the conference with eighteen other countries, in an effort to draw the attention of the international community not only to end the war, but also to actively seek a path toward establishing a Palestinian state.

Amr Hamzawy: Similarly, Egypt has prioritized diplomatic mediation to change the course of tragic events in Gaza. Government teams have participated in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Doha. Bilaterally, Egypt has worked with the Israeli government to arrange for aid trucks to get into Gaza using the land borders and crossings between the two countries. Egyptian officials, including President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, have appealed to Trump to engage swiftly in the effort to end the war and the starvation. They have also worked with Arab and European governments to create enough regional and international pressure on the Israeli government to end its de facto blockade of aid.

In its foreign ministry pronouncements, Egypt is recentering the principle of land for peace as the pillar of settling the conflict and enabling the Palestinian people to enjoy their right to self-determination. The Egyptian government has also commended Saudi Arabia’s position of conditioning normalization with Israel on ending the war and establishing a Palestinian state. Egypt has joined other Arab countries in applauding the British, Canadian, and French Palestine recognition announcements.

Netanyahu has said that Israeli will fight in Gaza until it has eliminated Hamas and all hostages are returned. Has the latest campaign made any progress? What about the ceasefire negotiations?

Amr Hamzawy: There are signs that the Trump administration is frustrated with Netanyahu’s relentless war on Gaza. The United States is hearing from its allies in the Gulf and elsewhere in the Middle East that Netanyahu’s actions are destabilizing the region and in so doing create more room for violence, terrorism, and militias. Trump and his aides are receiving signals from regional capitals that the time has come to exert more pressure on Netanyahu to stop the war, free the Israeli hostages, and end the human misery in Gaza.

For U.S. pressure to be effective, it needs to be sustained and to fit into a wider Middle East strategy prioritizing peacemaking, diplomacy, and collective security. To what extent the Trump administration is willing to invest itself in such efforts and with what pace remains to be seen. However, such a holistic strategy is the only bet for the United States to stabilize the Middle East and protect its important interests in the world’s most volatile and turbulent region.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.