• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
REQUIRED IMAGE

REQUIRED IMAGE

Paper

Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?

Link Copied
By Marina Ottaway
Published on Feb 28, 2005

Additional Links

Full Text (PDF)
Program mobile hero image

Program

Democracy, Conflict, and Governance

The Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program is a leading source of independent policy research, writing, and outreach on global democracy, conflict, and governance. It analyzes and seeks to improve international efforts to reduce democratic backsliding, mitigate conflict and violence, overcome political polarization, promote gender equality, and advance pro-democratic uses of new technologies.

Learn More
Program mobile hero image

Program

Middle East

The Middle East Program in Washington combines in-depth regional knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to provide deeply informed recommendations. With expertise in the Gulf, North Africa, Iran, and Israel/Palestine, we examine crosscutting themes of political, economic, and social change in both English and Arabic.

Learn More

Source: Carnegie Endowment

Summary
This short paper launches the second set of studies in the Carnegie Papers Middle East Series. The first set, now also published as a book under the title Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, examined the most important issues concerning democracy promotion and democratic change in the Middle East.

One of the conclusions that emerged from those studies is that the Middle East still offers a rather discouraging political picture. There are some liberalized autocracies but no democratic countries in the region. The link between economic and political reform remains weak. Democratic reformers have failed to build strong constituencies, and the organizations with strong constituencies are Islamist rather than democratic.

The integration of Islamists in the reform process remains poor. And the United States, now championing democracy in the region, has little credibility in Arab eyes, and still has not consistently integrated democracy promotion in its policy toward the area. Yet, despite all these problems, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a ferment of reform in the Middle East. But how signficant is it? The second set of papers will try to answer that question through case studies of individual countries.

Click on link above for the full text of this Carnegie Paper.

About the Author
Marina Ottaway is senior associate in the Democracy and Rule of Law Project at the Carnegie Endowment. She is the coeditor of Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, and author of nine books, including Democracy Challenged: The Rise of Semi-Authoritarianism.

About the Author

Marina Ottaway

Former Senior Associate, Middle East Program

Before joining the Endowment, Ottaway carried out research in Africa and in the Middle East for many years and taught at the University of Addis Ababa, the University of Zambia, the American University in Cairo, and the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa.

    Recent Work

  • Article
    Reactions to the Syrian National Initiative

      Marina Ottaway, Omar Hossino

  • Article
    Slow Return to Normal Politics in Egypt

      Marina Ottaway

Marina Ottaway
Former Senior Associate, Middle East Program
Marina Ottaway

Additional Links

Full Text (PDF)
United StatesMiddle EastIraqPolitical ReformDemocracyEconomyMilitaryForeign Policy

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • silhouetted figure watching a row of TVs.
    Commentary
    Emissary
    9/11 at 25: A Reading List for Understanding the War on Terror

    The books, podcasts, and films that explain the world it made.

      • Andrew Leber

      Andrew Leber

  • Aerial view of shipping containers at a port
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The Fallout of the U.S.–Canada Trade War Won’t Be Limited to North America

    U.S. trading partners in Asia are closely watching the dispute for signs of how it may affect their own interests.

      • Barbara Weisel

      Barbara Weisel

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europe Fails to Learn the Lessons from Ceuta

    The aftermath of the Ceuta crisis shows Europe has drawn the wrong lessons. Rather than doubling down on failed migration policies, the EU needs to address the underlying roots of such episodes.

      Richard Youngs

  • US President Donald Trump waves as he leaves after speaking at a campaign rally
    Paper
    America Walks Away from Global Democracy

    By abandoning past U.S. pro-democracy policies and adopting several lines of pro-autocratic action, the Trump administration has fundamentally repositioned the United States vis-à-vis democracy in the world.

      Thomas Carothers

  • olice officers and residents stand in front of a shopping mall while a large outdoor screen broadcasts a military welcome ceremony featuring U.S. and Chinese flags for U.S. President Donald Trump hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People on May 14, 2026
    Paper
    American Power: A View from China

    Chinese strategists are once again debating whether American power is declining and whether U.S. hegemony is experiencing irreversible decay.

      Wu Xinbo

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.