• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Anders Aslund"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "russia",
  "programs": [
    "Russia and Eurasia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Ukraine"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Economy",
    "Trade"
  ]
}
REQUIRED IMAGE

REQUIRED IMAGE

In The Media

Betraying a Revolution

Link Copied
By Anders Aslund
Published on May 18, 2005
Program mobile hero image

Program

Russia and Eurasia

The Russia and Eurasia Program continues Carnegie’s long tradition of independent research on major political, societal, and security trends in and U.S. policy toward a region that has been upended by Russia’s war against Ukraine.  Leaders regularly turn to our work for clear-eyed, relevant analyses on the region to inform their policy decisions.

Learn More

Source: The Washington Post

Ukraine's Orange Revolution was an exhilarating and joyful event. It was a classical liberal revolution for democracy and freedom and against corruption. Viktor Yushchenko became the democratically elected president, promising freedom from fear and corruption.

Alas, the new Ukrainian government of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, another revolutionary hero, has surprisingly opted for an economic policy that appears to be socialist and populist in nature. The results have been immediate: Last year Ukraine enjoyed economic growth of 12 percent; in the first four months of this year, the growth rate plunged to 5 percent, while inflation has surged to 15 percent. How could things turn so sour so fast?

The biggest blow to the economy has been the new government's foggy plans for re-privatization. During the election campaign, Yushchenko advocated the renationalization of Ukraine's biggest steel mill, Kryvorizhstal, to be followed by a new privatization deal. The goal was to undo the sale of the mill to Ukraine's two biggest oligarchs in a sweetheart deal last year. The new government quickly acted to recover Kryvorizhstal, but the owners have taken the case to the European Court of Justice, where the proceedings are expected to be prolonged.

For months top Ukrainian officials have discussed publicly how many flawed privatization deals should be reversed -- the possibilities range from 29 to 3,000 -- and how this would be done. The government is trying to recover many enterprises through the courts, and it has drafted a broad law that could undo much of Ukraine's privatization. The dispute can be settled only by the fractious parliament, which will need months to come to a decision -- if, indeed, it ever decides anything.

Meanwhile, the property rights of thousands of enterprises are in limbo. In Kiev, rumors abound that oligarchs connected to the old regime are trying to sell their enterprises to Russian business executives and are preparing to escape the country. Naturally, executives are cutting off investment, and economic growth is screeching to a halt.

To make matters worse, a new socialist minister of privatization has been appointed who opposes privatization in principle. She asked recently: "What is so bad about re-nationalization?" Tymoshenko concurred in a recent newspaper interview: "The biggest enterprises, which can easily be efficiently managed, must not be privatized, and they can give the state as an owner wonderful profits." This sounds like state capitalism.

The old regime doubled pensions, saddling Ukraine with the highest pension costs in the world as a share of national income. The new Ukrainian government has added to this excessive burden by raising state wages no less than 57 percent.

To finance these and other huge social expenditures, the government is scrambling to find more revenue. A lot of discretionary tax exemptions have, sensibly, been abolished, but the overall tax pressure has risen dramatically. Meanwhile, Yushchenko continues to talk about his plans for sharp tax cuts.

Incredibly, this new regime brought to power by the middle class and small entrepreneurs has abolished the simplified taxation that served those segments of society so well. The result has been that tens of thousands of small entrepreneurs have been forced to close their businesses, while others have fled into the underground economy.

Reformers have long demanded that the lawless tax police be abolished and that the tax administration be forced to obey the law. But Tymoshenko is cheering the tax police on and has declared that the performance of the regional governors will be judged by their ability to collect taxes.

Inflation is skyrocketing with increasing public expenditures. The predominantly Russian oil companies have increased their prices as world market prices have risen. Tymoshenko has imposed strict price controls on gasoline and forced the remaining state oil companies to deliver it at prices below market levels. Not surprisingly, oil supplies have declined, and gasoline shortages have erupted. She has also started controlling the price of meat, which has begun to disappear from markets. The price controls are accompanied by abuse of private producers and praise of state companies.

Tymoshenko does not talk about reform of state monopolies but instead about their reinforcement. In an additional effort to squeeze business profits and boost state re venue, she wanted to boost railway tariffs for metals by 100 percent, but settled magnanimously for a hike of only 50 percent.

The contrast between the declarations of the Orange Revolution and current government policy could hardly be greater. Curiously, this discrepancy continues. In an editorial on Yushchenko's first 100 days, the Kiev Post points out that "while Yushchenko is making grand statements abroad, the rest of the government does not seem to follow his lead."

The official justification for these populist policies is that they are meant to boost Tymoshenko's popularity for the parliamentary elections next March. Both Ukrainians and Ukraine's foreign friends need an explanation of what is going on.

The author is director of the Russian and Eurasian Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

About the Author

Anders Aslund

Former Senior Associate, Director, Russian and Eurasian Program

    Recent Work

  • Other
    Putin's Decline and America's Response

      Anders Aslund

  • Testimony
    Democracy in Retreat in Russia

      Anders Aslund

Anders Aslund
Former Senior Associate, Director, Russian and Eurasian Program
Anders Aslund
Political ReformEconomyTradeUkraine

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Humanoid robots follow technicians to learn job skills at the data collection area of an embodied AI robot innovation center on September 14, 2025 in Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province of China.
    Paper
    The AI Labor Debate: Three Views on the Future of Work

    AI could hollow out jobs, reshape them gradually, create entirely new ones—or do all three at once. The case for starting to act now doesn’t depend on knowing which.

      • Teddy Tawil

      Teddy Tawil

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Who Is Responsible for the Demise of the Russian Internet?

    The Russian state has opted for complete ideological control of the internet and is prepared to bear the associated costs.

      Maria Kolomychenko

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Russia’s Coal Industry Is Running on Borrowed Time

    Powerful lobbyists and inertia led to Russia’s coal-mining sector missing an excellent opportunity to solve its structural problems.

      Alexey Gusev

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Is Opposition to Online Restrictions an Inflection Point for the Russian Regime?

    After four years of war, there is no one who can stand up to the security establishment, and President Vladimir Putin is increasingly passive. 

      Tatiana Stanovaya

  • A shadow man holds a shadow drone against a blue sky with clouds.
    Article
    The New Revolution in Military Affairs

    How Ukraine is driving doctrinal change in modern warfare.

      • Andriy Zagorodnyuk

      Andriy Zagorodnyuk

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.