Egypt of December 2015 is looking a lot like Egypt of late 2010 and the final months of Hosni Mubarak‘s three-decade rule. The country’s longtime military president had little political sophistication; then as now, there were struggles between the military and businessmen for economic and political power, human rights abuses, economic woes, and jihadi groups in the Sinai. But today, these things appear more pronounced.
The membership and mission of the recently elected 598-seat House of Representatives bear similarities to the parliament chosen a few months before the January 2011 uprising, but each is more exaggerated. Other developments in Egypt echo the dysfunction of 2010, raising questions about whether another upheaval might be brewing.
The composition of the new parliament does not represent all Egyptians—few of whom voted, whether by choice or various forms of exclusion—but it does reflect the state of formal politics: The military and security services are more involved than ever, wealthy business people and scions of old families are back, the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi Islamists are mostly excluded, and youth are repressed or manipulated. Some 75 retired army or police generals will account for about 13% of seats in the new parliament; that’s half again as many as in 2010 and 10 times as many as were elected in 2012. Business people will take about 25% of the seats, up from the 20% they occupied in 2010 and the 15% in 2012.
The Muslim Brotherhood, which won about half the seats in parliament in 2012, has been excluded; its Freedom and Justice Party was outlawed in 2013, as the Brotherhood was in 2010. The Salafi Nour Party, the only Islamist party participating in this year’s elections, won only 12 seats (2%), down from about 25% in 2012. Most of the youth-oriented parties that sprang up in 2011 have broken up or been marginalized; a new party that won a surprising 50 seats is led by a 24-year-old supporter of President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi and called Future of the Homeland. That’s eerily reminiscent of the Future Generation Foundation headed by former presidential scion Gamal Mubarak.
Egypt’s new parliament is being called upon to lend its imprimatur to undemocratic actions initiated by the presidency, as Mubarak-era parliaments were, though now those actions are far more extreme. The House’s first task will be to validate some 260 laws passed by decree since the 2013 coup that toppled Mohammad Morsi and brought Mr. Sisi to power. The constitution adopted in 2014 says that validation must take place within 15 days of parliament convening, leaving no time for serious review of the decrees. For Egyptians, this sort of executive manipulation of the legislature is familiar. In 2007, deputies approved presidentially drafted amendments to 34 articles of the constitution in a single vote; while those amendments were undemocratic, they were mild compared with many post-2013 decrees, such as a law against protest that has allowed thousands to be jailed. It is unclear whether Mr. Sisi will also persuade the new parliament to vote away many of the enhanced powers the 2014 constitution gave the assembly.
Even before parliament has convened, President Sisi is already using it by declaring that it represents the completion of the road map back to democracy he promised after removing Mr. Morsi. In Mr. Sisi’s retelling of events, the road map included only a new constitution (rewritten in January 2014), presidential elections (conducted in May 2014), and the just-concluded parliamentary elections. The original post-Morsi plan, however, included other steps that have been forgotten, such as the creation of a “committee to foster national reconciliation” with Mr. Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood.
There are other disturbing similarities to late 2010: Beyond the political shenanigans, inflation driven by food prices is rising, labor protests are building against low wages, and public outrage is surfacing over deaths from police brutality. Unlike in 2010, however, there is no dynamic youth-led movement to protest peacefully: The former leaders are mostly in prison or exile. Instead, what Egypt has in 2015 is an increasingly violent and multifaceted insurgency, composed of and supported by Islamists and others alienated from the limited formal politics showcased in the new parliament, which threatens to take the country into uncharted waters.
This article was originally published by the Wall Street Journal.
Comments(8)
Very superficial analysis which reflects a shallow knowledge of the Egyptian society
Couldn't agree more with you, Amr. A very superficial analysis, not supported by fundamentals of objectivity and a stubborn refusal to accept the current state of affairs as the Democratic outcome of the general sentiments prevailing in Egypt today...
This is a hit piece, another example of how the "think tanks" have become completely corrupted by Qatari money. She presents this as deeply informed by by knowledge and views and well researched, dropping numbers here and there, well, even a cursory look shows it is propaganda that completely disregards the aspirations of the Egyptian people and their collective political action to rid Egypt of the MB. Since when is a religious organization seeking to replace the state good for democracy, are you out of your mind...without separation of Church and State especially in the middle east, nothing can get anywhere. Just the term "Islamist participation in pluralistic politics in an oxymoron" as by definition it is a composite statement that includes irreconcilable contradictions. This institution needs to wake up and take in the new middle east, of young energized workers who wish to enter modernity and stop acting like the middle eastern people are inferior and have to be governed by religious authority. My best description of this type of article is "New Orientalism of the Politically Correct" patronizing, dated and doomed. You disgrace the academy with this rhetoric.
I think you miss the point of this article. While your general assertion of the need to keep religion and state separate is true and Morsis Brotherhood in power was problematic, this is not the focus of the criticism. The specific flaws noted above in the rule of Al Sisi: the corruption, the abuses, the undemocratic legislative manipulations are not "propaganda" nor apologism for Islamism. They are valid criticisms of flaws in the current regime that threaten stability of that country and undermine the necessary foundations for a stable and authentic representative democracy. Your response also fails to grasp that Al Sisi's policies, like Mubarak's are designed not only to keep Islamists out of power, but to also undermine and minimize the influence of true liberals in the political sphere
I think you mis-read the article. The writer is not taking or sponsoring the ekhwan state. She is comparing Alsisi era with Mubark era. The failure of Alsisi to lead and heal is obvious. Many Egyptians, me including, said that Egyptian are not ready for another revolution but it looks like they are heading in that direction.
Your comments are very valid. This author has consistently exhibited (in previous articles) a marked ignorance not only of the realities on the ground in Egypt but a very poor grasp of contemporary democratic theory. Ever since Morsi was removed from power Ms Dunne has dedicated most of her writings to maligning the current regime in Egypt through superficial and distorted articles such as this one. Like you, I had previously commented on her articles in detail , providing evidence and argument that sought to correct the distortions as well as the errors of fact and logic in her article ,in the hope that it might do some good... that would be reflected in her future writings. But I have given up , since it soon became clear that my efforts were futile, hence my responding to you now rather than writing to her . It is of course depressing when one is confronted with such a closed frame of mind . I console myself, however, by recalling Schiller's apt remark: "Against stupidity the gods themselves have struggled in vain."
Spot on analysis based on facts. Sissi is The most important source of terrorism Trivial and bloody people like isis thrive on such criminals. Here is my estimate for what could happen in egypt. Two scenarios, first one is a civil war that will emerge somtime over the next ten years. The fuel for this war will be the low level insurgency that is increasing due to the increase of economic and social welfare failures. Second scenarios, which we all hope will prevail is sissi to manage to pull this together and succeed in reversing the police brutality and improve economy where average Egyptians would feel this improvement. In this scenario, I will expect another 25-35 years of sissi rule where it could end with a peaceful protests.
You couldn't be further from the truth ! We choose our path and we like it ! Leave us alone ! You are totally exposed ! #تحيا_مصر #تحيا_مصر #تحيا_مصر
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