• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Ashley J. Tellis"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "South Asia",
    "India",
    "East Asia",
    "China",
    "Taiwan"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Economy",
    "Trade",
    "Security",
    "Military"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media

Sign a Free-Trade Deal With Taiwan

Free trade with Taiwan would secure U.S. economic interests while strengthening U.S. alliances with China’s rivals.

Link Copied
By Ashley J. Tellis
Published on Dec 3, 2018

Source: Wall Street Journal

As President Trump pursues bilateral free-trade agreements with Japan and South Korea, one East Asian country has fallen off the radar: Taiwan. This lapse may prove economically and strategically costly for the U.S.

The Trump administration’s obsession with bilateral trade deals, rather than multilateral agreements, is controversial. But its ambitions to secure better terms of trade while deepening strategic partnerships with China’s rivals should not be. A trade deal with Taiwan would advance both objectives splendidly.

For a small, diplomatically isolated country, Taiwan plays an outsize role in global trade, especially in strategically vital sectors like communication technologies, chemicals and transportation. Taiwan is America’s 11th-largest trading partner, with two-way trade approaching $90 billion annually, according to the American Institute in Taiwan. The island nation attracted more than $24 billion in foreign direct investment from the U.S. in 2016, and it’s also America’s seventh-largest export market for agricultural goods. A free-trade agreement with Taipei would significantly expand commerce with a country that does not threaten U.S. interests.

In addition to its technological excellence, Taiwan’s strategic isolation makes it an especially attractive economic partner. The threat from China means Taiwan has a strong incentive to deepen ties to the U.S. Accordingly, it doesn’t seek preferential access to the U.S. market, as developing Asian countries often do. It merely wants stable commercial access to the U.S. to increase its growth rate and improve its political survivability. This gives the Trump administration an opportunity to negotiate a good deal, which could take effect speedily and then become a model for other agreements with Asian states.

A deal with Taiwan could also help secure U.S. and allied supply chains. Before the 1980s, many foreign producers of sensitive technologies, including South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, produced them in their home countries for direct export to the U.S. One consequence of accelerated globalization is that the production of many sophisticated electronic components, such as chip sets and optronics—which are crucial for advanced defense systems—is migrating to China.

But as Chinese assertiveness has grown, Taiwanese and Japanese companies have been looking for opportunities to shift their investments either to friendly countries or back home. A U.S.-Taiwan pact would accelerate the reorganization of Asian supply chains away from China and reduce China’s ability to coerce America and its East Asian allies in times of crisis.

Finally, a free-trade agreement would demonstrate American solidarity with Taiwan at a time when China is intensifying its efforts to deny the small island nation international representation and diplomatic ties with other countries. A deal would help limit and reverse this isolation, while also promoting U.S. prosperity and economic security. There is a big win here, waiting for the Trump administration to seize it.

This article was originally posted in the Wall Street Journal.

About the Author

Ashley J. Tellis

Former Senior Fellow

Ashley J. Tellis was a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

    Recent Work

  • Paper
    Multipolar Dreams, Bipolar Realities: India’s Great Power Future

      Ashley J. Tellis

  • Commentary
    India Sees Opportunity in Trump’s Global Turbulence. That Could Backfire.

      Ashley J. Tellis

Ashley J. Tellis
Former Senior Fellow
EconomyTradeSecurityMilitarySouth AsiaIndiaEast AsiaChinaTaiwan

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Aerial view of Washington DC
    Paper
    Network and Structural Power: The Four Trend Lines Weakening U.S. Leverage

    Networks—from international payments platforms to key economic sectors—underlie many aspects of U.S. power. But they are suffering under an extractive approach to foreign policy.

      Daniel W. Drezner

  • Research
    Reforming European Security: A Turkish Perspective

    The Alliance is being pulled toward a NATO 3.0 model by two structural drivers: the changing character of warfare, made visible by the war in Ukraine, and the redistribution of transatlantic burden-sharing as the United States gives greater priority to homeland security and the Indo-Pacific.

      • +5

      Alper Coşkun, Fatih Ceylan, Tacan İldem, …

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Lukashenko’s Concessions to Kyiv Reflect Russia’s Weakness

    The recent damage inflicted by Ukrainian drones and missiles on Russia has made Belarus aware of its own vulnerabilities—and surprisingly amenable to Kyiv’s demands.

      Artyom Shraibman

  • Paper
    Threading the Needle: India’s Path Forward with China

    After the chill in ties between 2020 and 2024 that brought India–China relations to their lowest point in several decades, the two countries have engaged each other afresh. This paper argues that there are predominantly four imperatives guiding India’s approach to China, and they exist in an order of priority.

      Saheb Singh Chadha

  • Commentary
    Emissary
    Ahead of the Ankara Summit, NATO’s Mood Has Changed

    European allies are less focused on appeasing Trump and more focused on smoothing the transition to a Europe-led alliance.

      • Nate Reynolds
      • +1

      Sophia Besch, Alper Coşkun, Nate Reynolds, …

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.