Dear Reader,
The United States has elected Donald J. Trump as its 47th president. His second term begins in the shadow of a Middle Eastern region that is on the precipice of all-out conflict and a world that is different from the last time he was in power.
First, there is the near-total destruction of Gaza and the expansion of the conflict in Lebanon, both with a horrific cost in civilian lives: upwards of 44,000 casualties in Gaza and close to 4,000 in Lebanon. In Lebanon, the estimated cost of the conflict thus far is $8.5 billion. In Gaza, there is the absence of a clear political path out of the conflict as calls for a two-state solution remain ink on paper. The appointments of the upcoming Trump administration that have been announced thus far indicate that it will adopt a hardline approach to the Palestinians. Trump is likely to endorse annexation of parts of, if not all, the West Bank, while Gaza is unlikely to be rebuilt in any meaningful way. This will have repercussions on neighboring Jordan and Egypt, that are already facing their own challenges. In Lebanon, while a ceasefire may be more likely, the scale of destruction and internal dynamics means that the country will face significant challenges in the years ahead.
What this would mean for the U.S. president’s desire to bring about a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the unrealized part of Trump’s Abraham Accords in 2020, remains an open question. The stakes this time are much higher. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently accused Israel of genocide in Gaza, and insisted that a two-state solution be a precondition for any normalization between the two countries. He has since announced an international coalition for the realization of the two-state solution.
Meanwhile the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, has seen increased cooperation among the three. This has opened the door for the thawing of diplomatic relations between Iran and other Gulf countries, including the first-ever informal meeting between the Iranian foreign minister and his Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) counterparts on the margins of the Asian Cooperation Dialogue summit in Qatar in early October. The promised trade war between the United States and China would have reverberations in the Middle East, but is unlikely to break the deepening trade and security ties between China and its Gulf partners.
The probability of a confrontation between Israel, Iran, and the United States has never been this high. A Rubicon has been crossed with the direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran. During his campaign, Trump promised to bring peace and stability to the region. Whether that would be through a return to his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, coupled with support for more concerted military action by Israel remains to be seen. The president may, alternatively, seek to build on the signals sent by Iran’s government and negotiate. Either way, this would have direct implications on the GCC states, who are in the direct line of fire for any potential hostilities. This would also come in a context of increasingly assertive middle powers, including Turkey, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, who are establishing footprints across the region and are hedging their relationships with the different global actors. The fate of the proposed India-Middle East-Europe trade corridor will play out in this very volatile context.
The question here is how Russia would position itself should such a conflict break out. Russian cooperation with Iran has grown since the invasion of Ukraine, with Tehran supplying Moscow with drones and missiles, in exchange for advanced Russia air defense systems to Iran. Trump has indicated that he would like to end the war in Ukraine, probably through a negotiated settlement. This would have significant reverberations in Europe as well as the Middle East, at a time when the rules governing the use of nuclear weapons are also fraying.
What this means for Syria, where different security models have emerged and both Russia and the United States have boots on the ground, is equally unclear. During his first term, Trump sought to remove U.S. forces from northeastern Syria, before reversing his decision within 24 hours. Russia is also cooperating with Israel, as the latter continues to undermine Iran’s presence in Syria and bomb its positions and arms transfer routes to Lebanon. Russian cooperation is needed to increase pressure on Iran, though a negotiated political settlement in Syria will also require Iranian cooperation.
In Yemen, Libya, and Sudan, the situation does not look more promising. Ending the conflicts in those countries requires considerable political leverage and commitment, at a time when U.S. political power globally has waned and Washington’s capacity to drive the global order has been undermined, especially amid rising global resentment for its actions during Israel’s war in Gaza. Western support for Israel’s war, despite horrific violations of international human rights and international humanitarian law, as well as the laws of war or armed conflict that are supposed to spare civilians from the worst abuses of conflict, seems to have granted the Israelis a continued license to kill. Weakening UN organizations, as Trump did in his first term, will impede responses to growing humanitarian challenges.
In short Donald Trump is coming to power in one of the most unstable periods in the Middle East’s history. Will the region see a war that ends all wars? A peace that ends all peace? Or a peace that ends all wars? Our scholars will have a large number of important issues to unpack in the coming months.
Maha Yahya
Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Regional Conflict
Egypt and Jordan are caught in the middle.
By Amr Hamzawy
Egypt’s Environment
In order for Egypt to respond effectively to the alarming environmental threats it faces, it must bring the large number of military-managed projects and production in the civilian domain under a single, integrated national framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning, monitoring, and accountability.
By Yezid Sayigh
Russia in the Maghreb
Russia’s outreach to the region has successfully exploited regimes’ frustrations with the West. Yet it has encountered difficulties in navigating the complex interrelations and rivalries.
By Frederic Wehrey
Tunisia’s Economy
President Kais Saied has won a second term in office, but his country is facing a host of problems that necessitate urgent reforms, above all preventing the possibility of a financial meltdown.
By Ishac Diwan, Hachemi Alaya, and Hamza Meddeb
Yemen’s Maritime Borders
For the foreseeable future, maritime trade through the Red Sea will remain a hostage to Ansar Allah and Iran. They will likely use this to secure concessions elsewhere.
By Ibrahim Jalal
Media & Events
- The Case for a New Arab Peace Initiative, by Marwan Muasher Read the Article
- Lebanon’s Day After, by Maha Yahya Read the Article
- How Autocracy Prevailed in Tunisia, by Sarah E. Yerkes and Sabina Henneberg Read the Article
- Israel Brings Its Gaza Strategy to Lebanon, by Mohanad Hage Ali Read the Article
- The New Battle for the Middle East, by Karim Sadjadpour Read the Article
- “The Israeli project is dying,” Marwan Muasher Watch the Interview
- The Trump Presidency's Foreign Policy: Implications for the Middle East and Shifting Global Dynamics Watch the Panel Discussion